Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:                

• Positive U.S. Real Yields Add to Toxic Emerging-Market Cocktail.
• Europe Risks Rationing If Putin Cuts Off Russian Gas Supply.
• Turkey Closes Airspace to Russian Jets Flying to Syria’s War.   
• Hedge Fund Cuts China Stocks to Zero Seeing Worse Year Than 2008.
• Blinken, Austin Meet Zelenskiy in Top Show of Solidarity.
• Ukraine Needs Nations to Follow Up on Aid to Fill $5 Billion Gap.  
• Some Chinese State Banks to Cut Deposit Rates Monday: Reuters.  
• Libya Says Armed Clashes at Key Oil Port Damaged Storage Tanks.  
• Chinese Naval Base in Solomons a ‘Red Line,’ Australian PM Says.
• Lagarde Says Europe, U.S. Face ‘Different Beast’ With Inflation.
  
• Swiss Rebuff German Requests to Send Tank Ammunition to Ukraine.
• Ukraine Latest: Air Raid Sirens Heard Across Most of Country.
• Macron Set to Clinch Second Term in France, Defeating Le Pen.
• 2022 French Election Second Round Live Results.  
• Stocks in Asia, U.S. Futures Slide; Euro Climbs: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Extends Losses as China Lockdowns Imperil Demand Outlook.
• Warren Warns Dems Risk Losing Power Without Inflation Action.  
• Foxconn’s Key iPhone Plant Operating in Locked-Down China Region.  
• The iPhone 14 Is Less Than Six Months Away; Here’s What to Expect.
• U.S. and Euro-Area GDP Data to Show First War Effects: Eco Week.   
• Silicon Motion Is Said to Explore Sale Amid Takeover Interest.

Wall Street Journal:

• Workers Are Changing Jobs, Raking In Big Raises—and Keeping Inflation High.
• Yen’s Drop Raises Prospect of Broader Market Trouble.
• Latest Updates From the War.
• U.S. Withholds Sanctions on a Very Close Putin Associate: His Alleged Girlfriend.
• Fed Wants to Raise Rates Quickly, but May Not Know Where to Stop.
• War Could Have Environmental Impact Lasting Decades.
• Saudi Royals Are Selling Homes, Yachts and Art as Crown Prince Cuts Income.
• Apple Store Workers Seek to Unionize, Following Efforts at Amazon, Starbucks.
• No Stranger to Failure, Founder of Sunac China Fights to Save His Property Empire.
• Cathie Wood’s Flagship Fund Is Down 45% This Year. Money Is Still Flowing In.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (C), (HPQ), (NVDA), (AAPL), (MSFT), (RTX), (TMUS), (TSM), (ON), (AVGO), (OUT) and (XOM).

Fox News:  

• European country comes out against EU membership for Ukraine.
• Warren warns Dems may be in for a bloodbath in November for one reason.
• Rev. Franklin Graham takes strong stance against 'Disney's moral failure'.
• Sheriff in Dem-run city blasts soaring homelessness, crime — reveals how to make city 'livable again'.
• Joe's team 'trying to conceal' who he's met with, investigative journalist says.

CNBC:

• Netflix is finally going after password sharing. Here’s how it’s likely to work.
• Movie theater owners are optimistic about ticket sales before key summer season.
• Ukraine to press senior U.S. officials for more weapons during Kyiv visit as Russian invasion enters third month.
• Top Wall Street analysts like these stocks for long-term upside.

Zero Hedge:

• Macron Re-Elected French President; Le Pen Concedes Defeat.
• "The Biggest Story No-One Is Talking About": Why Albert Edwards Expects "Something In The Market Is About To Snap".
• Global Shipping Update: China Is About To Wreck Your Summer.
• Melvin Capital Kills "Tone Deaf" Plan To End High Water Mark After "Candid Response" From Investors.
• Hedge Fund CIO: There's A Growing Consensus The Fed Will Keep Going Until The Market Breaks.
• Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open - Weekend news roundup.
• Morgan Stanley: We Are Rethinking Our Preferences In The Credit Markets.
• Shanghai Reports Record COVID Deaths As Lockdown Drags On.
• Twitter Board "More Receptive To A Deal", Meeting With Musk Today As It Re-Examines Bid.
• Small Towns Drew Most New Pandemic Residents.
• Why Gavin Newsom Is Creating A Water & Energy Disaster.
• El-Erian Warns 'Global Growth Engines Are Sputtering'.
• "A Magnet For Conspiracy Theories": Wikipedia Kills Entry For Hunter Biden's Investment Company.
• Tchir: The Not-So-Good, The Bad, & The Ugly.
• As France Votes For President, Wall Street Warns Le Pen Upset Would Be Bigger Shock Than Brexit.
• Putin Has 'Lost Interest' In Diplomacy.
• How Vulnerable Is The Equity Market? Fed's Soft Landing Doesn't Rule Out Hard Landing For Stocks.
• Germany Borrows Another 40 Billion Euros To Cushion Fallout From War In Ukraine.
• US To "Respond Accordingly" If Solomon Islands-China Pact Permits Military Base.
• UK's Largest Supermarket Begins Rationing Cooking Oil Amid Supply Disruption.
• My Energy Is Your Problem - The Birth Of A New Europe.
• Elon Musk Rebuffs Bill Gates' Philanthropy Request, Compares Photo Of Gates To "Pregnant Man" Emoji.
• "I'm So Bearish, Even I'm Miserable": One Bank's Clients Crack... Yet The Real Selling Is Only Just Starting.
• Satellite Maps Expose Shanghai's Supply Chain Standstill.
• "Will Be Like Home But Faster" - Starlink Inks First In-Flight WiFi Deal With Carrier.
• Was Ivermectin Unfairly Torpedoed As Treatment For COVID-19?
• Russian Airlines Told To Prepare For World Without GPS.
• Destroying Democracy To Save It? Court Advances Effort To Block GOP Candidates From Ballots.
• FBI Warns of Targeted Cyber Attacks On Food Plants After Mysterious Rash Of Fires.
• Feeding LA's Homeless Industrial Complex.
• Taking Away Special Treatment For Woke Corporations Is Not "Authoritarian".
• Putin To Test Nuclear Missile Capable Of Striking US By Autumn.
• Economically-Free States Are Recovering Rapidly. High-Control States, Not So Much...
• Showdown Looms Over Vacated Mask Mandate.
• Biden Approval Is Plunging The Most With Younger Americans.

MarketWatch.com:           

• What’s next for the stock market as investors come to grips with Fed’s ‘peak hawkishness’.
  
• Netflix is the S&P 500’s worst performer this week — here are the next 14.
  
• Weekend reads: How to position your investments before the Federal Reserve causes a bear market.
  
• Investors just pulled a massive $17.5 billion out of global equities. They’re just getting started, says Bank of America.

NewsMax: 

• Rep. Jeff Van Drew: 'Parents Have Rights' Regarding School Curriculums.
• Donald Trump: 'Deranged Group of Extremists' Running US.
• Almost 5.2 Million Ukrainians Flee War: UN.
• Leading Russian TV Anchor: War With NATO Soon.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• THE BIG LIE: The Most Obvious Reason the 2020 Election Was Stolen – Democrats Attack, Block and Threaten to Sue All Efforts to Uncover Election Fraud. 
• More Than 20 States Have Joined Lawsuit Over Biden’s Mishandling Of Southern Border.
• UPDATE: Missing National Guard Soldier Identified – Specialist Bishop Evans Was Trying to Rescue Two Drug Traffickers When He Drowned in Rio Grande.
• Chechen Warlord and His Forces Declare ‘Victory’ in Mariupol and Shout ‘Allahu Akhbar’ (VIDEO).
• More Revealed on Chinese Officials and Chinese Businessmen Visiting Obama’s White House.
• BREAKING: SECOND EXCLUSIVE TRAILER Released for “2000 Mules” — Shows How the 2020 Election Was RIGGED AND STOLEN — VIDEO.
• Another Night in Chicago – 300 Youth Converge on the Loop and Millennium Park – Brawls Break Out, Cars Targeted, More Than a Dozen Detained – Four Sent to Hospitals.
• Former DNI John Ratcliffe: Trump-Russia Collusion Hoax a “Conspiracy” – Entire Perkins Coie Law Firm “Could Be Subject to Indictment” (VIDEO).
• What’s Going On?… FBI Warns of Cyber Attacks on Food Plants Following Mysterious Rash of Fires.
• “Despite Worsening Inflation, Democrats Still Cannot Kick Their Addiction to Deficit Spending” – Rep. Ralph Norman on Biden’s Soaring Inflation.
• “SECRET Gender Transition Closets,” Where Young Children Can “Trans” Without Their Parents’ Knowledge, Are Popping Up At Schools Across the Country.
• WATCH: Tucker SHREDS Obama Following Thursday’s ‘Disinformation’ Speech: “He’s a Full-Blown Fascist Who Hates You”.

The Epoch Times: 

• China Would Support Russia Even If It Used Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine War: Former Defense Official.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 807,241 Reports(+4,073 from prior week) Through April 15th, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -2.0% to -1.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.0 +2.75 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 73.75 +1.25 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.92 -.13%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,310.0 -304 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.30 +1.12%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.06%.
• S&P 500 futures -.49%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.54%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (ATVI)/.70
• (KO)/.58
• (OTIS)/.74
• (PHG)/.15
• (LII)/2.08
  

After the Close:

• (BRO)/.75
• (CALX)/.20
• (CR)/1.68
• (CCK)/1.82
• (PKG)/2.52
• (PEP)/1.23
• (SBAC)/2.49
• (UHS)/2.47
• (WHR)/4.79
• (ZION)/1.14
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March.

10:30 am EST

• Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for April is estimated to fall to 4.5 versus 8.7 in March.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German IFO Guidance and the (HPE) fireside chat with Stifel could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.