Wednesday, April 20, 2022

Stocks Mostly Higher into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Optimism, Dollar Weakness, Healthcare/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance:  Mixed
  • Volume:  Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.2 -5.3%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,833.0 +4.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.67 -.29%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.9 -.37%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 37.0 -11.7% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 88.0 -28.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 94.0 -1.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.43 +97.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.95 -1.5%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 351.72 +.41%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.27 -2.7%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 165.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.65 +.53%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 254.41 -1.4%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.4-.02%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11,319.80 +11.0%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 27.5 +2.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 23.5 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.25 -.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  117.0 +3.0 basis points
  • iShares CMBS ETF 48.72 -.06%
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.29 -.03%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .83% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 24.75 -9.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 153.05 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 69.40 -.5 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.8 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 44.1 -.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.94 -2.0 basis points
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +3/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -92.9%(+.5 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +48 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -26 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +28 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long

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