Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• More Than 8 Million Americans Are Late on Rent as Prices Increase. 
• Oil Posts Weekly Loss as Recession Jitters Dent Commodity Prices.  
• Summers Urges Fed to Avoid 1970s Error of Easing Amid Recession.
• ‘Coast to Coast’ Housing Correction Is Coming, Says Moody’s Chief Economist.
• Democrats Seize on Abortion as Leverage Against Inflation Angst.   
• Fed Dove Daly Joins Officials Open to 75 Basis-Point July Hike.  
• Jittery Markets Switch Winners and Losers in Russell Rebalance.  
• Meme-Stock Probe Finds Robinhood Woes Were Worse Than It Let On.  
• Sternlicht's Starwood Looks to Unload 3,000 Homes for $1 Billion.  
• Market Is Shredding All the Time-Tested Ways to Chart Its Course.

Wall Street Journal:

• Chevron to Cut Back in California, Remain Based in State.
• Cadillac Plans to Price EV Around $300,000.
• Appeals Court Delays FDA’s Ban on Juul E-Cigarettes.
• Consumer Sentiment at Record Low Is Another Ominous Sign.
• Lawmakers Want FTC to Investigate Apple, Google Over Mobile Tracking.
• U.S. Port Backups Are Extending Into Freight Rail Supply Chains.

Fox News:

• Pregnancy centers, abortion clinics, churches beef up security as pro-choice demonstrators hit streets.
• Biden makes false abortion claim in address to nation about high court ruling.

Zero Hedge:

• These Are The World's Angriest Countries.
• Assange Put On Suicide Watch After Patel Decision, Family Says.
• Giant Sunspot Currently Facing Earth And Still Growing Capable Of Emitting Powerful Solar Flares.
• Dallas Fed: Surging Costs Hamper US Shale Growth.
• Miami Housing Rents Jump A Stunning 41% In April. 
• Biden Snubbed Oil Firms And Met With Offshore Wind Partnership.
• Roadway Congestion Returns To China, Signals Tighter Global Oil Supplies.
• The Post-Roe World: A Reality Check On The Implications Of The Supreme Court Opinion.
• Goldman Raising $2 Billion To Buy Distressed Celsius Assets.
• How Far Will This Dead-Cat Rally Bounce: Goldman, JPMorgan Traders Duke It Out.
• Cost Of Insulin Driving 80% Of Diabetic Americans Into Debt: Survey.
• Summer Preview: Rolling Blackouts, Higher Gas Prices, Natural Gas Rationing In Europe And A Historic Diesel Crisis.
• Stocks ramp into the weekend while Bond longs take profits - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Stocks Emerge From Bear Market As End Of Fed Rate Hikes Priced In With Recession Looming.

MarketWatch.com:            

• Should the Fed start selling its mortgage holdings at a loss to fortify its inflation fight?  
• The stock market’s return will be minus 3.3% a year over the next decade, says this ‘single greatest predictor’

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Abortion Activists Hand Out the HOME ADDRESS of Justice Clarence Thomas to Protesters Outside Supreme Court (VIDEO).
• Democrat Rep. Jackie Speier Incites Violence, Calls on Pro-Abortion Activists to “Armor Up” Because “There’s a War Out There” (VIDEO).
• DNC Chair Claims That the Supreme Court is Now ‘Illegitimate’.
• Was Someone Else In Paul Pelosi’s Vehicle When It Crashed? [VIDEO].
• BREAKING: Congress Passes Gun Control Package, Heads to Biden for Signature.
• BUSLOADS Of Riot Police Head To Supreme Court, Snipers on Rooftop, As Leftist Terrorists (Biggest Threat to America) Gear Up For ANOTHER Summer of Violence.
• “To Hell with the Supreme Court. We Will Defy Them.” – Insurrectionist Maxine Waters on the Roe v. Wade Decision (VIDEO).
• Justice Department Releases Statement on Roe v Wade – Garland Vows to “Use Every Tool” to Fight States on Abortion.

The Epoch Times:

• US Trade Representative Cautions Against Removing Trump-Era Tariffs on Chinese Imports.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 835,062 Reports(+3,252 from prior week) Through June 17th, 2022. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Stocks Sharply Higher into Afternoon on Less Hawkish Fed Hopes, Diminished European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Technical Buying, Consumer Discretionary/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 27.3 -6.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.67% +20.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,727.0 +403.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.84 +.42%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.0 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 47.9 -2.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 94.0 +4.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .82 -10.9%

• NYSE Arms .54 -59.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 95.35 -3.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 468.84 -1.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 385.0 +8.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 120.39 -2.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 202.0 basis points +6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.12 -.83%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 317.22 -2.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.83 unch.
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11,106.80 +18.5%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 34.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 55.5 basis points -4.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.25 basis points -1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  137.0 unch.
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.83 -.25%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.87 +.84%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.65% +7.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 6.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.55 USD/Metric Tonne unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -71.7 +7.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.8 -4.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.6 +1.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.57 +6.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for September 21st FOMC meeting: 62.2%(-.6 percentage point) chance of 2.75%-3.0%. Highest target rate probability for November 2nd meeting: 41.9%(n/a) chance of 3.0%-3.25%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 221 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 13.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -5/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -79.5%(+.2 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +341 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +62 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/commodity/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +2.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -.2% 2) Healthcare Providers +.4% 3) Biotech +.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ENVX, CYTK, ALT, ARCT, EDIT, RDUS, MIRM and TREE
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KMX 2) CAG 3) ZEN 4) DHI 5) EWW
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CAMP 2) TUP 3) VRCA 4) UNH 5) CDNA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +2.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gambling +8.4% 2) Oil Service +4.8% 3) Airlines +4.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ZEN, RCL, SWBI, CCL, WYNN, BALY, ASIX, CLDX, PEB, FDX, KMX, EVOP, BFH, HRT, EHC, HXL and AVNT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BKLN 2) CLDX 3) CMRX 4) SPGI 5) BHC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) EVFM 2) MITQ 3) ZEN 4) SWBI 5) WOLF
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +7.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 82.8% of Issues Advancing, 14.2% Declining
• 4 New 52-Week Highs, 40 New Lows
• 16.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 36.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,688.0 +382.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,282.0 +.02%
  
• Vix 27.5 -5.5%
• Total Put/Call .81 -12.0%
• TRIN/Arms .60 -54.2%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• Qantas Slashes Flights in Australia as Rising Oil Prices Bite.
• Australia Bonds Extend Rally for Biggest Weekly Gain in a Decade.  
• Recession Fears Sink Canadian Banks Into 20% Drop From High.
  
• Mexico Delivers Record Rate Hike, Says More Increases Coming.
• Stocks Set for Steady Asia Open Amid Bond Rally: Markets Wrap.
• World’s Most Watched Oil Data Won’t Be Released This Week.
• N.Y. Among Blue States Seeking Gun Limits to Blunt Court Ruling.
  
• Smith & Wesson Leads Rally in Gun Stocks After N.Y. Ruling.
  
• Analysts Are Very Sure of Profit Estimates Everyone Else Hates.  
• ‘Coast to Coast’ Housing Correction Is Coming, Says Moody’s Chief Economist.
• Wall Street South Gets Biggest Win in Griffin’s Grand Miami Plan.
• Citadel Move Is 'Punch in the Gut' for Chicago. 
• S&P 500 May Have Another 24% to Fall, 150 Years of Market History Shows.   
• Steel Pipes for Drilling Oil Are the New Semiconductors.

Wall Street Journal:

• Powell Pressed Over How Fed Would Respond to Economic Slowdown.
• Fed Stress Test Finds Big Banks Can Weather Severe Recession.
• Fed Official Calls for Aggressive Rate Hikes.
• The Supreme Court Vindicates the Second Amendment. A 6-3 majority recognizes a right to carry guns in public for self-defense.
• McDonald’s Tightens Ownership Rules as It Seeks New Franchisees.
• U.S., European Economies Slow Sharply as Recession Risks Grow.
• Germany Looks at Potential Rationing of Natural Gas After Russia Cuts Supply.
• What to Know Before Flying This Summer as Cancellations and Delays Mount.

Fox News:

• Social media erupts over liberal governor's fiery reaction to Supreme Court's landmark ruling on guns.
• Nancy Pelosi's husband charged with DUI weeks after Napa car crash.
• FANCY NANCY: Bombshell report exposes Pelosi's lavish lifestyle, husband's troubled history.

CNBC.com:

• European leaders formally accept Ukraine as a candidate to join the EU.
• Intel warns Ohio factory could be delayed because Congress is dragging its feet on funding.
• Fanatics is in talks to buy sports betting company Tipico, sources say.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: FedEx, Sarepta Therapeutics and more. 
  

MarketWatch:          

• You shouldn’t trust the stock-market bounce until the S&P 500 is back above 3,800, analysts say.
  
• Energy ETFs are the unloved relative to ‘outstanding’ gains as growth bets in stock market head for worst first half ever.  
• The S&P 500 could slide another 33% in a ’70s-style inflation environment: Société Générale.  
• Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater increases short bets against Europe stocks.  
• Inflation is ‘eroding the comfort level’ Americans have about their cash savings.  
• These ‘zombie’ companies could feel the cash burn, warns New Constructs.

Zero Hedge:

• Police Department Shows Off 'Pride Cruiser' Which Encourages People To "Report Hate Crimes". 
• What Is Stagflation And Why Has The Establishment Been In Denial About It?
• "I Don't Believe In Censoring Art": Paramount CEO Rejects Trigger Warnings.
• Tata Technologies' CEO Puts India In The Semiconductor Spotlight.
• United Airlines Cuts 12% Of Newark Flights To Reduce Delays.
• Nikola's Trevor Milton Faces New Fraud Charge Related To Purchase Of A Utah Ranch Using Stock.
• This Is Not The Time To Exit Commodities, Recession Or Not.
• "Chicago Is Like Afghanistan": Ken Griffin Is Moving Citadel To Miami, Leaving Chicago Crime Cesspool Behind.
• China Faces Power Shortage As Heatwave Pushes Demand To Record.
• US stocks bounced back from disappointing PMIs as yields and commodity prices declined - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Ukraine Granted EU Candidate Status As US Provides Another $450 Million In Military Aid.
• Food Inflation Is The Litmus Test.
• All 33 Banks Pass Fed Stress-Test, Setting Stage For Billions In Buybacks.
• Global PMI misses see bonds and havens bid and cyclicals shunned - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• At The Military Olympics, October 2019, Wuhan, China, Athletes Caught COVID.
• Stocks & Bonds Surge As Recession Fears Tank Rate-Hike Odds.

Newsmax: 

• Afghanistan Auditor: State, USAID No Longer Cooperating in Review of Flawed US Pullout.
• US Sending Advanced Rocket Systems, Other Aid to Ukraine.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Maricopa County Republican Committee Executive Board To Reject 2020 Presidential Election After Election Audit and “2000 Mules” Documentary.
• Day Before J6 Committee Hearing, FBI Agents Raid Home of Trump DOJ Official Jeffrey Clark in Pre-Dawn Raid –Forced into Street in His Pajamas.
• “Is That the Choice? $5 a Gallon Gas or a $61,000 Electric Car?” – Peter Doocy Spars with Karine Jean-Pierre Over Biden’s Insane Policies (VIDEO).
• Courts Seal Records Of Former Clinton Aide And Epstein Associate Who Committed Suicide
• The Biden Administration Plans To Allow Boys In Girls Bathrooms And Locker Rooms Under Title IX Revision.
• North Dakota Attorney General Sounds Alarm On Bill Gates Buying Massive Amounts Of Farmland.
• Interactive Map Details Destruction of Numerous US Food Manufacturing Plants, Grocery Stores, etc. — Compares US Incidents to Global Trends.
• WATCH: Here is 12 Minutes of Democrats Denying Election Results – Sore Loser Hillary Clinton is the Worst Offender!

 The Epoch Times:

• Bank Runs Across China Trigger Complaints About Obtaining Cash.
• Critical Race Theory is Part of Globalist Power Grab: Expert.
• US Needs to Decouple From China: Expert.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 831,800 Reports(+2,492 from prior week) Through June 10th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.25 +.25 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 81.75 unch.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.42 -.04%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,574.0 +258.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.0 -.03%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.15%.

• S&P 500 futures -.18%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.11%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (KMX)/1.55
• (CCL)/-1.14
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for May is estimated to fall to 590K versus 591K in April.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bullard speaking, Fed's Daly speaking, German IFO Guidance and the (CCL) business update could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.