Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -7.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 65.0% of Issues Advancing, 31.6% Declining
• 9 New 52-Week Highs, 35 New Lows
• 19.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 42.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,910.0 +198.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,344.0 -.53%
  
• Vix 27.5 +.9%
• Total Put/Call .80 -5.9%
• TRIN/Arms 1.20 -11.11%

Monday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.75 -.5 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 76.25 -5.5 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.01 +.38%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,814.0 +100.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.7 +.8%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.09%.
• S&P 500 futures -.43%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.40%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (JEF)/.51
• (NKE)/.81
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Durable Goods Orders for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.5% gain in April.
• Durables Ex Transports for May is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in April.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in April.
  

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for May is estimated to fall -3.8% versus a -3.9% decline in April.
  

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for June.

Upcoming Splits

• (SHOP) 10-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 2/5 Year N-Note auctions and the Japan Unemployment report could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:         

• G-7 Negotiators Put Russia Oil Price Cap on Agenda for Leaders.
• G-7 Set to Ban New Russian Gold Imports in Pledge Backed by US.  
• A Defiant Boris Johnson Says He’s Staying UK Leader Into 2030s.  
• Zimbabwe Plans Triple-Digit Interest Rate Hike to Tame Inflation.
• Fear Has Gone Missing in Wall Street’s Slow-Motion Bear Market.
  
• Hot Job Market May Ease Sting of Potential US Recession: Q&A.
  
• US Layoffs, Hiring Freezes Are Tip of Labor Market Slowdown.  
• Bond Traders Are Trapped Between Recession and Inflation Fears.
  
• Ghislaine Maxwell Placed on Suicide Watch Before Sentencing.  
• Why Margin Calls and Bot Liquidations Are Roiling Crypto.
  
• Powell Shares His Troubles With Lagarde and Bailey: Eco Week.  
• Charting the Global Economy: Activity Cools in Europe, US.

Wall Street Journal:

• Employers Weigh In on Abortion and Benefits—Cautiously.
• Democrats Focus on Abortion Fight in Upcoming Elections.
• Why Not Prosecute Intimidation Of Supreme Court Justices? The Justice Department hasn’t ensured peace at the homes of the Justices.
• AT&T, Verizon Raise Prices and Test Consumer Budgets.
• Uvalde Residents Press for Answers a Month After School Massacre.
• How the Bipartisan Gun Deal Got Done.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (MDLZ), (SBUX), (HSY), (DHI), (TPH), (TOL), (X), (NUE), (CLF) and (LW).

Fox News:

• LIVE UPDATES:Police make arrests in front of Supreme Court as coast-to-coast protests rage on.
• Biden admin raises alarm by echoing foreign countries in blasting SCOTUS.

CNBC:

• Ukraine’s Sievierodonetsk falls to Russia after one of war’s bloodiest fights.
• Every new passenger car sold in the world will be electric by 2040, says Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods.
• Disney, Apple and Amazon keep waiting as NFL considers Sunday Ticket offers.

Zero Hedge:

• Doctors' Group Urges Biden Administration To End Quarantine, Vaccine Recommendations For Children.
• The Dobbs Decision Unleashes Rage And Revisionism.
• "First Real Buying In 3 Weeks"; Goldman Trader Explains Why Friday's Surge Is The Start Of The Next Big Move Higher.
• "It's Infuriating": DC Democrats In Chaos, Demand Biden Act On Abortion.
• Keith Olbermann Calls For The Supreme Court To Be Dissolved.
• Maxine Waters: "To Hell With The Supreme Court! We Will Defy Them!".
• Russia To Transfer Nuclear-Capable Missiles To Belarus "Within Months": Putin.
• The Great Crash Of 2022.
• Diesel Demand Set To Drop As Economies Enter Recession: Kemp.
• The Gas Inflation Crisis Is Far From Over – Where Will Prices Finally Stop?
• Biden Signs Gun Control Bill Into Law.
• Norway Terror Alert Raised To Highest Level After Deadly Mass Shooting.
• The 1970s Revisited?
• "Like COVID Never Happened": Ibiza Parties Like It's 2019.
• TGIF (and a squeeze)...
• EU Renews Digital COVID Pass Despite 99% Negative Public Feedback.
• Germany Fears Russia Could Shut Nord Stream 1 Within Weeks.
• The European Union Is Again Close To A Meltdown.
• The Link Between Soaring Food Prices & Political Instability.
• Everybody's Guilty: To The Police State, We're All Criminals Until We Prove Otherwise.
• New Study Finds Hawaii, Oregon, Among Least Affordable States To Live In.
• Prepare For A Tidal Wave Of Evictions.
• Did Durham Play Us For A Fool?
• Reactivation Of Chickenpox Virus Following COVID-19 Injections On The Rise.

MarketWatch.com:           

• Recession is challenging inflation as top fear among stock and bond investors.
  
• Energy ETFs are the unloved relative to ‘outstanding’ gains as growth bets in stock market head for worst first half ever.

NewsMax: 

• Biden Signs $13B Gun Control Law, Vows 'Much More Work to Do'.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Disney Announces They’ll Pay For Employees’ Abortion-Related Travel Costs.
• MUST SEE VIDEO: Day 1 of the Abortionist Insurrection – Democrat Leaders Lead Calls for Mass Violence, Violent Mobs Terrorize Communities, Crack Heads.
• DICK’S Sporting Goods Announces it Will Provide Up to $4,000 For Employees’ Abortion-Related Travel Expenses.
• Biden’s Transgender Assistant Health Secretary Rachel Levine: Sex Reassignment Surgery For KIDS is “Lifesaving, Medically Necessary” (VIDEO).
• Twitter Allows Racist Attacks on Justice Clarence Thomas to Trend.
• Tragic: 14-Year-Old Boy Collapses and Dies Suddenly in School Classroom – Cause of Death Unknown.
• Islamist Terror Attack on Gay Nightclub in Oslo, Norway Kills Two, Wounds 21; Iranian Gunman Arrested.

The Epoch Times:

• A Quarter of European Companies Plan to Leave China Over Strict ‘Zero-COVID’ Policy: Report.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 835,062 Reports(+3,252 from prior week) Through June 17th, 2022. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• More Than 8 Million Americans Are Late on Rent as Prices Increase. 
• Oil Posts Weekly Loss as Recession Jitters Dent Commodity Prices.  
• Summers Urges Fed to Avoid 1970s Error of Easing Amid Recession.
• ‘Coast to Coast’ Housing Correction Is Coming, Says Moody’s Chief Economist.
• Democrats Seize on Abortion as Leverage Against Inflation Angst.   
• Fed Dove Daly Joins Officials Open to 75 Basis-Point July Hike.  
• Jittery Markets Switch Winners and Losers in Russell Rebalance.  
• Meme-Stock Probe Finds Robinhood Woes Were Worse Than It Let On.  
• Sternlicht's Starwood Looks to Unload 3,000 Homes for $1 Billion.  
• Market Is Shredding All the Time-Tested Ways to Chart Its Course.

Wall Street Journal:

• Chevron to Cut Back in California, Remain Based in State.
• Cadillac Plans to Price EV Around $300,000.
• Appeals Court Delays FDA’s Ban on Juul E-Cigarettes.
• Consumer Sentiment at Record Low Is Another Ominous Sign.
• Lawmakers Want FTC to Investigate Apple, Google Over Mobile Tracking.
• U.S. Port Backups Are Extending Into Freight Rail Supply Chains.

Fox News:

• Pregnancy centers, abortion clinics, churches beef up security as pro-choice demonstrators hit streets.
• Biden makes false abortion claim in address to nation about high court ruling.

Zero Hedge:

• These Are The World's Angriest Countries.
• Assange Put On Suicide Watch After Patel Decision, Family Says.
• Giant Sunspot Currently Facing Earth And Still Growing Capable Of Emitting Powerful Solar Flares.
• Dallas Fed: Surging Costs Hamper US Shale Growth.
• Miami Housing Rents Jump A Stunning 41% In April. 
• Biden Snubbed Oil Firms And Met With Offshore Wind Partnership.
• Roadway Congestion Returns To China, Signals Tighter Global Oil Supplies.
• The Post-Roe World: A Reality Check On The Implications Of The Supreme Court Opinion.
• Goldman Raising $2 Billion To Buy Distressed Celsius Assets.
• How Far Will This Dead-Cat Rally Bounce: Goldman, JPMorgan Traders Duke It Out.
• Cost Of Insulin Driving 80% Of Diabetic Americans Into Debt: Survey.
• Summer Preview: Rolling Blackouts, Higher Gas Prices, Natural Gas Rationing In Europe And A Historic Diesel Crisis.
• Stocks ramp into the weekend while Bond longs take profits - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Stocks Emerge From Bear Market As End Of Fed Rate Hikes Priced In With Recession Looming.

MarketWatch.com:            

• Should the Fed start selling its mortgage holdings at a loss to fortify its inflation fight?  
• The stock market’s return will be minus 3.3% a year over the next decade, says this ‘single greatest predictor’

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Abortion Activists Hand Out the HOME ADDRESS of Justice Clarence Thomas to Protesters Outside Supreme Court (VIDEO).
• Democrat Rep. Jackie Speier Incites Violence, Calls on Pro-Abortion Activists to “Armor Up” Because “There’s a War Out There” (VIDEO).
• DNC Chair Claims That the Supreme Court is Now ‘Illegitimate’.
• Was Someone Else In Paul Pelosi’s Vehicle When It Crashed? [VIDEO].
• BREAKING: Congress Passes Gun Control Package, Heads to Biden for Signature.
• BUSLOADS Of Riot Police Head To Supreme Court, Snipers on Rooftop, As Leftist Terrorists (Biggest Threat to America) Gear Up For ANOTHER Summer of Violence.
• “To Hell with the Supreme Court. We Will Defy Them.” – Insurrectionist Maxine Waters on the Roe v. Wade Decision (VIDEO).
• Justice Department Releases Statement on Roe v Wade – Garland Vows to “Use Every Tool” to Fight States on Abortion.

The Epoch Times:

• US Trade Representative Cautions Against Removing Trump-Era Tariffs on Chinese Imports.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 835,062 Reports(+3,252 from prior week) Through June 17th, 2022. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Stocks Sharply Higher into Afternoon on Less Hawkish Fed Hopes, Diminished European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Technical Buying, Consumer Discretionary/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 27.3 -6.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.67% +20.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,727.0 +403.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.84 +.42%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.0 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 47.9 -2.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 94.0 +4.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .82 -10.9%

• NYSE Arms .54 -59.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 95.35 -3.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 468.84 -1.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 385.0 +8.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 120.39 -2.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 202.0 basis points +6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.12 -.83%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 317.22 -2.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.83 unch.
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11,106.80 +18.5%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 34.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 55.5 basis points -4.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.25 basis points -1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  137.0 unch.
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.83 -.25%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.87 +.84%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.65% +7.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 6.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.55 USD/Metric Tonne unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -71.7 +7.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.8 -4.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.6 +1.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.57 +6.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for September 21st FOMC meeting: 62.2%(-.6 percentage point) chance of 2.75%-3.0%. Highest target rate probability for November 2nd meeting: 41.9%(n/a) chance of 3.0%-3.25%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 221 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 13.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -5/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -79.5%(+.2 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +341 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +62 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/commodity/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +2.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -.2% 2) Healthcare Providers +.4% 3) Biotech +.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ENVX, CYTK, ALT, ARCT, EDIT, RDUS, MIRM and TREE
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KMX 2) CAG 3) ZEN 4) DHI 5) EWW
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CAMP 2) TUP 3) VRCA 4) UNH 5) CDNA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume