Stocks Reversing Sharply Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, European/Emerging Markets/US High Yld Debt Angst, Earnings Outlook Worries, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 28.0 +4.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 2.47% +264.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,947.0 +25.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.50 +.02%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.7 -.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 48.3 +5.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 -12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .95 unch.

• NYSE Arms 1.24 +17.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 98.98 +4.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 465.81 +1.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 384.0 -1.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 124.72 +4.3%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 193.0 basis points -9.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.73 +.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 339.50 +4.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.35 -.26%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 8,663.02 -8.6%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.5 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 50.25 basis points -5.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.0 basis points +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  139.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.55 +.21%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.95 -.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.71% +6.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 7.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 123.80 USD/Metric Tonne +2.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -68.9 +2.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -28.0 -2.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.5 -2.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.49 -8.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for September 21st FOMC meeting: 65.7%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 2.75%-3.0%. Highest target rate probability for November 2nd meeting: 47.8%(+1.9 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 250 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 15.0%(+2.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak +29/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -77.8%(+1.7 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -225 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -93 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -131 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to Market Neutral
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -2.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -4.3% 2) Internet -4.0% 3) Retail -3.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• COLL, APPS, RGP, SNOW, ABNB, RPD, ALT, ENTA, FND, RPAY, TREE, FNKO, VIVO, ESTC, TSLA, ALT, IAS, NKE, RGNX, SNX, PYCR, LYFT, NGM, PLAB and MDB
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EWU 2) SMH 3) NKE 4) AA 5) EWG
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CAMP 2) TUP 3) VRCA 4) UNH 5) CDNA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Energy +2.3% 2) Oil Service +1.3% 3) Gambling +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ESTE, LE, LVS, WYNN, QCOM and VG
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EVFM 2) DUK 3) NKE 4) WOW 5) QCOM

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) KZR 2) WYNN 3) STRO 4) LVS 5) TOUR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -9.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 44.5% of Issues Advancing, 52.0% Declining
• 7 New 52-Week Highs, 39 New Lows
• 19.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 42.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,986.0 +63.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,120.0 -1.3%
  
• Vix 27.6 +2.4%
• Total Put/Call .91 -4.2%
• TRIN/Arms 1.27 +19.8%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• World Bank’s Reinhart Sees More Debt Distress Risks Emerging.
• Traders Price In First Ever 50 Basis-Point Hike by South Korea.
• Japan Premier Support Slips Ahead of Vote on Inflation Worries.  
• The Big Japan Short Is Back for Traders Betting Against the BOJ.
  
• Central Banks in Asia Spend Billions to Slow Currency Declines.
• Ukraine Latest: G-7 Says ‘Abominable’ Mall Attack Is a War Crime.
• G-7 to Tell Ministers to Explore Price Cap on Russian Gas.
• Stock Rally Cools in Asia as Crude Pushes Higher: Markets Wrap. 
• Oil Rises on Supply Fears, G-7 Plan for Russian Crude Price Cap.
  
• Hottest US Housing Markets Now Have Bigger Share of Price Cuts.  
• Inflation Hits July 4 Cookouts With Food Prices Up as Much as 36%.
• Nike Skids on Downbeat Guidance Driven by Cautious China Stance.

Wall Street Journal:

• United Airlines’s Inflation Warning. Pilots get a 14.5% wage increase over 18 months, as airfares spike.
• Russian Missiles Hit Ukraine Shopping Mall as G-7 Leaders Pledge More Aid.
• Live Updates: Kremlin Says Putin to Join G-20 Summit. 
• Gas Stations Now Hold Up to $175 of Your Money When You Swipe.

Fox News:

• Unrest grips blue cities as protests and acts of vandalism pop up across the country after abortion ruling.
• Kamala Harris’ post-Roe comments in CNN interview blasted on Twitter.

CNBC.com:

• Nike tops Wall Street’s expectations, despite inflation in the U.S. and Covid lockdowns in China.
• Wall Street layoffs likely ahead as two-year hiring boom turns to bust.
• Crypto fund defaults on $670M loan, and Bitfury CEO says prices aren’t ‘relevant’: CNBC Crypto World. 
  

MarketWatch:         

• Coinbase could see ‘further degradation,’ Goldman warns in downgrade.

Zero Hedge:

• Dallas Fed Plunges As Respondents Unleash Unprecedented Slamdown Of "Disastrous" Biden Administration. 
• "F**k Clarence Thomas!" Shouts Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot During Pride Parade.
• 3 Dead, At Least 50 Injured After Packed Amtrak Train Derails In Missouri.
• Far-Left Groups Use Map Created By University Professors To Target Pregnancy Centers.
• Flurry Of Calls Among Saudi Diplo Staff And Spy Coincided With 9/11 Hijackers' Arrival.
• Sri Lanka Suspends Fuel Sales Amid Economic Collapse; Asks Russians For Help.
• Activity In Tropics Emerges As Next Big Hurricane Could Send Gas Prices To "Apocalyptic" Levels.
• "The Rubicon Has Been Crossed": The BOJ Now Owns More Than 50% Of All Japanese Bonds.
• Still a bear market rally?
• US stocks were mostly pressured on the higher yield environment - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Pentagon Blasts Putin's Latest "Cavalier" Nuclear Threat.
• Robinhood Erases Gains As FTX Denies "Active" Acquisition Rumors.
• Banks Unveil Post-Stress-Test Dividend/Buyback Plans, Morgan Stanley Jumps On Boost To Both.
• Nasdaq lags as strong data and weak auctions boosts yields - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• 'Good News' Sends Stocks & Bonds Lower; Oil & Gas Prices Soar.

Newsmax:

• Russia's Medvedev: Any NATO Encroachment on Crimea Could Mean World War III.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Biden Admin Signs Five Year Lease to House Illegal Alien Children at Luxury $42K Per Year Private School Campus in North Carolina.
• “I Am Really Disappointed in FOX, I Thought You Were Better Than CNN!” – BOOM! Kari Lake INCINERATES Bret Baier and FOX News for Pushing FAKE STORY on AZ Drag Queen (VIDEO).
• New York State Supreme Court Tosses NYC Law that Allows Non-Citizens to Vote.
• Pelosi Throws Gasoline on the Fire, Labels the Supreme Court an “Extremist” Body That “Punishes” the American People.
• BREAKING: Voice Message of Joe Biden Discussing China Spy Chief with Son Hunter Proves He Lied About Not Discussing Hunter’s Foreign Business Deals.
• While US Economy Crumbles, Biden Promises $200 Billion for Solar Panels, Vaccine Plants and Communication Links Around the World.
• Rep. Mayra Flores Blasts Speaker Nancy Pelosi for Elbowing and Pushing Her Daughter.

 The Epoch Times: 

• Ian Easton: The CCP’s ‘Reengineering of the World to Spread Totalitarianism, to Spread Communism’.
• G-7 Leaders Announce $600 Billion Global Infrastructure Program to Take on Beijing’s Debt Trap Diplomacy.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 835,062 Reports(+3,252 from prior week) Through June 17th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 128.25 -2.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 77.5 +1.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.02 -.07%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,951.0 +29.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.3 -.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.20%.

• S&P 500 futures +.27%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.35%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• (AVAV)/.40
• (PRGS)/.95
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Advance Goods Trade Balance for May is estimated at -$105.0B versus -$106.7B in April.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for May is estimated to rise +2.1% versus a +2.2% gain in April.
• Retail Inventories MoM for May is estimated to rise +1.6% versus a +.7% gain in April.
  

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for April is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +1.5% gain in March.
• The S&P CoreLogic 20-City MoM for April is estimated to rise +1.95% versus a +2.42% gain in March.

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for June is estimated to fall to 100.0 versus 106.4 in May. 
• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for June is estimated to rise to -5 versus -9 in May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (SHOP) 10-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone  Industrial Production report, GFK Consumer Confidence Germany, weekly US retail sales reports and the 7Y T-Note auction could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Higher Long-Term Rates, Technical Selling, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 27.5 +.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .68% -59.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,911.0 +199.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.53 +.39%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.8 -.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.7 -3.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 -7.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .94 +10.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.11 -17.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 94.86 unch.
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 455.20 -1.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 379.0 -6.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 119.86 -.29%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 197.0 basis points -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 128.52 -4.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 322.85 +1.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.51 -.34%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 9,404.86 -15.3%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 31.75 basis points -2.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 60.25 basis points +4.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.5 basis points -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  136.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.45 -.48%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.07 +.50%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.64% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 6.5 basis points (2s/10s) +.5 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 119.0 USD/Metric Tonne-.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -66.9 +4.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -28.2 -2.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.1 -1.5 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.56 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for September 21st FOMC meeting: 65.4%(+1.9 percentage points) chance of 2.75%-3.0%. Highest target rate probability for November 2nd meeting: 46.2%(+6.4 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 234 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 14.0%(+1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak +13/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -80.5%(-1.0 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -131 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -81 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my commodity/medical sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long