Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +2.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping +1.5% 2) Foods +1.5% 3) Telecom +1.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• RGNX, DICE, RLMD, MNTK and MRVI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) INDA 2) AES 3) PLD 4) CCL 5) CSX
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MRVI 2) AXTI 3) SRAD 4) KRBP 5) MCG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +3.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gambling +7.9% 2) Airlines +6.4% 3) Alt Energy +5.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• INBX, BLKB, COMM, NCLH, CZR, POSH, RCL, SQ, RCKT, RIVN, RCII, ILMN, BCRX, AAL, QTWO, IVR, GEL, PMT, EFC, EPAC, CCRN, RSK, LNC, ABR, STWD, ACRE, DX, NLY, KREF, AYI, RC, PCG, BXMT, MDB, VSAT, PTY, NOTV, GTES, RVT, BSTZ, PAR, IAC and CNMD
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CIM 2) RITM 3) SIRI 4) AXL 5) NLY

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PTON 2) POSH 3) ACCD 4) RIVN 5) RVLV
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +22.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 87.8% of Issues Advancing, 9.4% Declining
• 22 New 52-Week Highs, 37 New Lows
• 24.3%(+19.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.0 +10.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 44.3 +2.8%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,465.74 +.33%
  
• Vix 29.2 -3.0%
• Total Put/Call .92 -4.2%
• TRIN/Arms .46 -4.2% 

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                      

• China’s ‘Common Prosperity’ Drive Morphs Into Common Poverty.
• Japan Sent Rare Warning to Residents to Shelter From North Korean Missile.
• Yen Weakens Past 145 Per Dollar, Nears Prior Intervention Levels.
• Credit Suisse’s Options Worsen as Markets Mayhem Takes a Toll.  
• US to Announce New Limits on Chip Technology Exports to China.
• Asian Stocks Gain After US Rallies, Yields Slide: Markets Wrap.
  
• OPEC+ Production Cut Poses New Threat to Biden as Election Nears.  
• Russia’s Novak Set to Attend OPEC+ Meeting in Vienna.
• Wall Street Capitulation Calls Get Ever Harder as Stocks Bounce.
• Samsung Woos US Chip Buyers With Tech Advances, Texas Production.  
• Hedge Fund Giant D.E. Shaw Plans to Raise Fees as High as 40%.  
• Planned Parenthood to Launch Mobile Abortion Clinic Along Illinois Borders.  
• JPMorgan Is Worried About Who’s Going to Buy All the Bonds.
  
• BofA’s Subramanian Says Wall Street Hasn’t Fully Capitulated Yet.
• Barkin Says Dollar Contagion a Risk But Fed Focus Is US Economy.

Wall Street Journal:

• Demand for Cars Faces Test With Rising Rates.
• Supreme Court Agrees to Hear Challenges to Tech Immunity.
• Fed Official Warns of More Persistent Price Pressures.
• Stacey Abrams’s ‘Big Lie’ Loses in Court. Her voter suppression narrative takes a hit from a federal judge.
• Samsung Kicks Advanced Chip-Making Race Into High Gear.
• Concerns About Credit Suisse Mount After Debt Slide.
• China Is Rerouting U.S. Gas to Europe at a Big Profit.

Fox News:

• Shooting investigation near college family event turns up 'bomb-making' manuals at Marriott hotel.

CNBC.com:

• Biden vows support for Puerto Rico’s Hurricane Fiona recovery as Florida cleans up after its storm. 
  

MarketWatch:           

• This stock market strategist says the coming recession could be the biggest ever. ‘I recommend prayer.’.
  
• Why California is paying nearly 70% more for gasoline at the pump than the rest of the country.
  
• Opinion: Stock markets will drop another 40% as a severe stagflationary debt crisis hits an overleveraged global economy.  
• S&P 500 energy stocks kick off fourth quarter with best day in nearly two years.  
• Stocks will continue falling even after Fed pivots, warns Morgan Stanley strategist who predicted bear market.  
• Credit Suisse woes prompt calls to analysts asking if U.S. banks risk a ‘contagion impact’.

Zero Hedge:

• Former Pentagon Advisor Says US Likely Attacked Nord Stream Pipelines To Isolate Germany.
• Supreme Court Won't Hear Challenge To Gun Bump Stock Ban.
• All Hell Breaks Loose After Musk Posts "Russia-Ukraine Peace" Twitter Poll.
• Japan Warns Residents To "Seek Shelter Immediately" After North Korea Fires Missile Which Flies Overhead, Lands In Pacific.
• US Would Lead NATO To 'Take Out Every Russian Conventional Force' If Putin Uses Nukes In Ukraine: Petraeus.
• High School Girl's Volleyball Team Banned From Own Locker Room After Complaining About Trans Athlete.
• Gov. Newsom To Lower Gas-Prices With Gas Tax-Hikes.
• Watch: Pentagon Chief Pressed To Endorse Biden's Vow To Defend Taiwan.
• US stocks began Q4 with a rally amid a softer dollar and yields - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• From Affirmative Action To Andy Warhol: Buckle-Up For A Wild Supreme Court Term.
• The Worst September, Q3 And YTD Of Your Career? 
• Stocks and Bonds rally as aggressive Fed hike bets pare after soft data - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• The Morning After...
• "We Own The Science": UN Official Admits That They Partner With Google To Control Search Results.
• Pivot Dreams Spark Panic Bid As Lehman-Suisse Forgotten.

Newsmax:    

• Tony Shaffer: Lax Weapons Stockpiles Expose US 'Weakness'.
• Bernie Kerik: No Surprise If DOJ Arrests Trump Before Election.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• US Army Misses Recruiting Goal by 25%.
• 2022 Midterm Action List – SEVEN STEPS You Can Take to SAVE OUR ELECTIONS From Fraud. 
• Project Veritas: ‘Anarchist’ Middle School Teacher Wants to ‘Burn Down Entire System’ – ‘F*ck the Parents… I’m Your Parent Now’ (VIDEO).
• “The Big Lie that They Constantly Refer to is Actually “The Big Lie” in Reverse” – President Trump Releases Statement on CNN Lawsuit and More to Come.
• Leading Medical Groups Demand Biden Justice Department and Tech Platforms Crack Down on Reporters Exposing Child Gender Surgeries, Puberty Blockers.
• Trump Sues CNN for Defamation – Seeks $475 Million in Damages.
• Justin Trudeau Went Bungee Jumping While Canadians Struggled to Rebuild and Restore Power Caused by Hurricane (VIDEO).
• GOP Takes Congressional Lead in New Poll as Support for Biden, Democrats on Key Issues Craters.
• JUST IN: Supreme Court Declines to Hear Challenge to Biden’s Federal Vaccine Mandate for Healthcare Workers.
• Australian Bureau of Statistics Reports Increase in Excess Deaths in 2022 Which is Above Historical Average.
• University of Chicago Student Organization Hosts No-Whites- Allowed Race Discussion.
• In Another Blow to Democrats – 69% of American Voters Oppose Child Porn Books in School Libraries.
• WOW! Biden Secretary of State Blinken Says Nord Stream Explosions “A Tremendous Opportunity” for Europe to “Remove Dependence on Russian Energy” (VIDEO).
  

The Epoch Times:  

• NIH Approves Millions in New Grants to Organization That Funded Wuhan Lab.
• Beijing Will Know More About You Than You Do: Gettr CEO.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 871,837 Reports(+4,210 from prior week) Through September 23rd, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +1.0% to +1.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 186.5 -.75 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 105.0 -4.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.46 +.04%   
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 42.25 -.9%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.41 +5.0 basis point
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.7 -.7%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.30%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.47%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AYI)/3.61

After the Close:

• (SGH)/.65
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for August is estimated unch. versus a -1.0% decline in July.
• Factory Orders Ex Transports for August is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -1.1% decline in July.
• JOLTs Job Openings for August is estimated to fall to 11088K versus 11239K in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Jefferson speaking, RBA rate decision, weekly US retail sales reports, (HAS) investor day and the (AEP) analyst day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% Net Long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Less Hawkish Fed Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Commodity/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 30.2 -4.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.95%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 43.2 -4.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.02 unch.

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.3 -1.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 48.9 +.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .94 -14.6%

• NYSE Arms .89 -4.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 104.42 -3.14%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 455.06 +1.86%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 450.0 +39.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 146.30 -1.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 233.0 basis points -8.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 186.83 +.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 315.20 -4.75%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.59 +.41%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 30.0 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 50.75 basis points +5.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -67.75 basis points -1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  170.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 46.17 +.91%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .66 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.38 +.67%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.22% -7.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -44.75 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 92.45 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 169.0 euros/megawatt-hour -10.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.4 -7.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -.6 -.8 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.3 +.1 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.0 -.05:  Growth Rate +15.7% -.1 percentage point, P/E 15.6 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.49 -14.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.28% -15.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.11% unch.: CPI YoY +8.20% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 +5.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for December 14th FOMC meeting: 54.4%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for February 1st meeting: 46.4%(+.8 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 98 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.6%(-.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -84.1%(-.7 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +409 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -30 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +30 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/utility/industrial/medical/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% net long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -3.0%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) REITs -.2% 2) Education -.2% 3) Electric Vehicles +.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MDB and APLS
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BGS 2) APRN 3) HTGC 4) VRAY 5) JBLU
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) APRN 2) KRBP 3) OLO 4) NCMI 5) ENFN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume