Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.25 +2.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 78.25 +7.5 basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.6 USD/Metric Tonne +1.7%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.9 +.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  48.2 -1.2%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.52 +3.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.6 +.9%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.1%.

• S&P 500 futures -.24%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.37%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CBRL)/1,22
• (GCO)/1.57
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Nov. is 200K versus 261K the prior week.
• The Unemployment Rate for Nov. is estimated at 3.7% versus 3.7% in Oct.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Oct.
• Labor Force Participation for Nov. is estimated to rise to 62.3% versus 62.2% in Oct.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PPI report and the (NAT) conference call could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Less Hawkish Fed Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Dollar Weakness, Tech/Medical Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.3 -1.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.36%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 48.5 -.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.2 -.94%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.9 +.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 40.6 -3.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 129.0 +32.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .97 -19.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.46 +149.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 76.6 -.05%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 368.08 -2.2%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 378.0 +3.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 96.90 -5.6% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 463.05 +2.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 189.0 basis points -6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 131.2 -5.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 228.27 +.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.0 +.86%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.25 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 43.75 basis points +3.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -32.25 basis points +1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  136.0 -10.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 128.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.24 +3.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.86 +.22%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% -5.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -72.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.15 USD/Metric Tonne +.25%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 137.0 euros/megawatt-hour -6.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.5 +.6 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.4 -5.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.8 -3.9 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.62 -.08:  Growth Rate +11.0% unch., P/E 17.8 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.54 -3.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.84% -142.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.87% -15.0 basis points: CPI YoY +7.49% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Feb. 1st FOMC meeting: 50.1%(+7.7 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 46.5%(+2.6 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 91 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.2%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -80.5%(+1.3 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -211 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -1 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -2.5% 2) Banks -1.6% 3) Retail -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• APP, SAIA, RCUS, OWL, RVLV, NXST, VSCO, SI, MU, CFLT, IGMS, ALLY, LMND, FDMT, ADM, PI, LZB, FNA, BG, BJ, BGS, COST, CEIX, ZUMZ, MNTK, BX, FLNC, ESTC, CAL, DG, BIG, RXDX, DAR, STEM, CRM, NTLA, OGS, SHLS, DBI and GIII
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HAS 2) JETS 3) ULTA 4) TOL 5) CRM
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LE 2) SQZ 3) OGS 4) NTLA 5) CRM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.5% 2) Cybersecurity +2.1% 3) Electric Vehicles +1.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• OKTA, SPLK, FIVE, BTAI, OFIX, NTNX, ASPN, BOX, SNOW, ATEC, COCO, ACRS and ATEC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) IP 2) CNK 3) SPGI 4) FIVE 5) DXC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) OKTA 2) REX 3) SPLK 4) FIVE 5) BIGC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +7.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 57.7% of Issues Advancing, 37.9% Declining
• 92 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
• 48.4%(+1.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 66.0 +3.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 48.2 -.7%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,627.7 -.03%
  
• Vix 20.4 -1.0%
• Total Put/Call .82 -32.2%
• TRIN/Arms 1.38 +132.9% 

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                  

• Stocks Extend Powell-Driven Rally, Dollar Slides: Markets Wrap.
• Powell Signals Smaller Hike Likely Next Month, More to Come.
• Bankman-Fried’s Red Flags Were Seen in All Corners of His Empire.  
• FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried Speaks at DealBook Summit.
• Roche’s Failed Alzheimer’s Drug Cleared Less Amyloid Than Hoped, Results Show.
• New York, Singapore Are the World’s Most Expensive Cities Right Now.
• Fat-Cat Margins Make S&P a High-Value Target in Inflation Wars.  
• Starbucks Illegally Refused to Negotiate With Union, US Labor Board Rules.  
• TikTok’s Viral Challenges Keep Luring Young Kids to Their Deaths.  
• Eli Lilly’s Omicron Treatment Loses Emergency Use Authorization.   
• Victoria’s Secret Shares Fall as Shoppers Spend Less on Lingerie.

Wall Street Journal:

• Democrats Want a Lame-Duck Spending Blowout. And the Senate GOP might go along to get more defense dollars.
• China’s Covid Protests Began With an Apartment Fire in a Remote Region.
• Twitter Becomes Stage for Protests Despite China’s Ban.
• Pandemic Controls Hit Chinese Factories.
• Ukraine’s Power Shortages Force Millions of Refugees Into Lengthier Exile.
• Investors Withdrew $20 Billion From Crypto Funds in November.
• CNN Layoffs Are Under Way.
• CDC Will Test Sewage for Polio in Some U.S. Communities.

Fox News:

• Biden under fire for claiming Americans didn’t understand 'what the hell a supply chain was'.

CNBC.com:

• Fed Chair Powell says smaller interest rate hikes could start in December.
• Salesforce stock falls over 5% on earnings and sudden departure of co-CEO Bret Taylor.
• Jeffrey Epstein estate settles Virgin Islands sex trafficking case for over $105 million.
• Mark Zuckerberg says Apple’s App Store policies are not ‘sustainable or good place to be’.
• China is a threat to national security, U.S. companies and American workers, Commerce Secretary says.

MarketWatch:              

• Snowflake stock drops after sales forecast that CFO admits is ‘conservative’.
• Spotify CEO joins Elon Musk in calling out Apple for ‘shameless … bullying’.  
• The Sam Bankman-Fried roadshow rolls on: 10 crazy things the FTX founder has just said.  
• Crypto exchange Kraken lays off 30% of its workforce.  
• Bitcoin is on ‘the road to irrelevance,’ ECB says.

Zero Hedge:

• "I've Had A Bad Month" - Bankman-Fried Claims "Didn't Knowingly Commingle Funds", Blames Girlfriend's Fund & "Accounting Mistakes". 
• The Establishment Is Using An Ideological Monopoly In Big Tech To Maintain Control.
• How Inflation Changes Culture. 
• "Just... Wow!": Record Numbers Turn Out For Early Voting In Georgia Senate Runoff.
• Amidst The Turmoil, Don't Handcuff Twitter With Government Control.
• NYC To Start Involuntarily Hospitalizing Mentally Ill Homeless People.
• China And India Are Buying Russian Crude At A 40% Discount.
• Zelensky 'Invites' Elon Musk To Visit Ukraine.
• "We're In For A Really Big Mess" - Charles Nenner Warns "War Cycle To Really Heat Up In 2023".
• US stocks rallied after Fed Chair Powell signalled a slower rate hike in December - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Biden Considers Calling On Congress To Boost Heating Oil Supplies As Winter Nears.
• NY Times Claims Balenciaga Pedo Scandal Is QAnon Conspiracy Theory.
• "I Used To Be Disgusted, Now I'm Just Tired...".
• Washington Goes To War Against Twitter And Free Speech.
• Stocks surge on dovish Powell into month-end - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Powell Pushes Dow Back Into Bull Market As Dollar Crashes To Worst Month In 13 Years.

Newsmax:   

• Air Marshals Planning to Resist DHS Order to Work at Southern Border.
• Blaine Holt: WH Message on China Protests 'Unacceptable'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING RASMUSSEN POLL: A Majority of Americans and Even Democrats Believe the Arizona Election Mess Affected the Election Outcome.
• FINALLY, FINALLY, FINALLY – National Group Uncovers Real-Time Election Fraud – HERE’S HOW THEY DID IT.
• NEW: Bill Clinton Tests Positive for Covid-19, Says He Is “Grateful to be Vaccinated and Boosted”.
• The Queen’s One Word Response To Prince Andrew’s Epstein Scandal Uncovered.
• Karine Jean-Pierre Won’t Say if Biden Regime will Try to Shut Twitter Down For Posts It Doesn’t Like (VIDEO).
• Elon Musk Admits Twitter Has “Interfered with Elections” – Agrees that Public Trust Must Be Restored.
• EU Threatens Musk With Twitter Ban.
• WATCH: “Every Step Of The Process Is Involved With Fraud” – Lara Logan Exposes The REAL BIG LIE. 
• Gov. Kristi Noem Bans Using China-Controlled TikTok Using State Devices Over Security Threats.
• Biden’s Energy Advisor Amos Hochstein: “Eventually We Are Going to be Phasing Out the Use of Oil” (VIDEO).
• “I Will Have Vengeance” – ‘Architect’ of Mar-a-Lago Trump-Ye Dinner Vowed in 2020 to “Burn Republican Party to F**king Ground”.

The Blaze:

• Collapsed cryptocurrency exchange FTX had ties to Ukrainian government, WEF, and top Biden adviser. Curiously, the Ukrainian government launched a cryptocurrency donation website in March that was backed by FTX. CoinDesk reported in March, "'Aid for Ukraine,' which has the backing of crypto exchange FTX, staking platform Everstake, and Ukraine’s Kuna exchange, will route donated crypto to the National Bank of Ukraine, Everstake’s Head of Growth Vlad Likhuta told CoinDesk. Ukraine’s crypto-savvy Ministry of Digital Transformation is also involved."

Axios:

• Bankman-Fried spent millions on Dem campaigns. It's unclear where Bankman-Fried's money came from. Forensic accountants and bankruptcy courts are on the case, but it could take months to untangle FTX's web of comingled funds. Bankman-Fried spent around $37 million during the last election cycle, almost all of which went to boosting Democratic candidates and causes. That made him the party's second-largest donor, according to OpenSecrets, and the sixth largest overall.

The Epoch Times:

• Death of Former CCP Leader Spurs Calls for Regime to Be Held Accountable for Atrocities.
• Mass COVID Protests in China Reveal a Weakened Communist Regime: Expert.

Twitter: 

• @crushthemarket - This might explain why SBF isnt in jail & most likely wont see any consequences.
• @The_Real_Fly - LET’S GIVE A ROUND OF APPLAUSE TO SAM BANKMAN-FRIED. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 901,032 Reports(+3,103 from prior week) Through November 18th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.75 -9.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 70.75 -7.0 basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.4 USD/Metric Tonne +2.6%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.8 +.2%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  49.1 +1.1%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.46 +4.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.6 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.3%.

• S&P 500 futures +.15%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.19%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BMO)/3.07
• (BIG)/-2.94
• (DG)/2.55
• (GIII)/1.84
• (KR)/.82
• (PDCO)/.57
• (TD)/2.06
  

After the Close:

• (AMBA)/.20
• (AOUT)/.18
• (MRVL)/.59
• (ULTA)/4.13
• (ZS)/.26
• (ZUMZ)/.17
  

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Nov.
  

8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for Oct. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Sept.
• Personal Spending for Oct. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.6% gain in Sept. 
• The PCE Core MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.5% gain in Sept.
• The PCE Core YoY for Oct. is estimated to rise +5.0% versus a +5.1% gain in Sept.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 235K versus 240K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1570K versus 1551K prior.
  

 10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for Oct. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.2% gain in Sept.
• ISM Manufacturing for Nov. is estimated to fall to 49.7 versus 50.2 in Oct.
• ISM Prices Paid for Nov. is estimated to fall to 45.9 versus 46.6 in Oct.
• ISM Employment is estimated at 50.0 versus 50.0 in Oct.
  

Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicles Sales for Nov. is estimated to fall to 14.6M versus 14.9M in Oct.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Eurozone PMI report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and (NTGR) analyst day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.