Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 131.5 +.25 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 78.25 unch. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 113.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.68%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.55 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  55.7 -.32%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.24 +2.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.53 -.08%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.42%.

• S&P 500 futures +.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%.  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 225K versus 216K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1706K versus 1672K prior.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -940,000 barrels versus a -5,895,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -320,000 barrels versus a +2,530,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -2,180,000 barrels versus a -242,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -1.16% versus a -1.3% decline prior. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Money Supply report, 7Y T-Note auction and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Passage of Stagflationary Omnibus Spending Bill, China Hard-Landing Fears, US High-Yield Debt Angst, Tech/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.5 -.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .96%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 56.4 -.26%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.69 +.46%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.8 -.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.3 -.14% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 -17.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 2.03 +105.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.08 +46.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 82.57 +2.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 389.65 +1.92%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 298.0 -41.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.73 -.86% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 449.09 n/a
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 213.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.9 -.97%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 239.97 +.22%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.8 -.14%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 31.25 basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 28.75 basis points -16.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.25 basis points -4.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  144.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 118.0 -1.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .89 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 -.20%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.45% +18.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 113.5 USD/Metric Tonne +3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 83.7 euros/megawatt-hour +4.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.40 +1.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 68.7 -1.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -19.1 +1.7 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.87 +.07:  Growth Rate +10.9% unch., P/E 16.5 -.02
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.23 +17.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -48.0 basis points (2s/10s) +7.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.66% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.52% unch.: CPI YoY +6.64% -5.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 56.2%(+.4 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 43.4%(+2.6 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 154 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.9%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -74.1%(+.9 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -230 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -57 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +37 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -32.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
• 25.7% of Issues Advancing, 71.5% Declining
• 43 New 52-Week Highs, 114 New Lows
• 37.2%(-4.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.0 -3.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 56.1 -.8%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,029.6 -.19%
  
• Vix 21.8 +.7%
• Total Put/Call 1.06 +7.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.41 +90.5% 

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                  

• China’s $1.3 Trillion Housing Crackdown Leaves Few Winners.  
• Chinese Stocks Are Suffering Massive Foreign Exodus as Covid Bites.  
• Five Scenarios That Threaten More Strife for Global Markets.  
• Global Bonds Extend Losses Prompting BOJ to Boost Purchases.
• Japan Factory Output Falls a Third Month as Global Demand Cools.  
• Stocks in Asia Decline After US Shares Close Lower: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Edges Higher After Russia Bans Exports to Price-Cap Users.
• Americans’ Wallets Set for Hit From Winter Home-Heating Bills.
  
• Deadly Winter Storm Exposes Deep Flaws of US Energy System.
• Alameda Lent Sam Bankman-Fried $546 Million for Robinhood Stake.  
• Investors’ Bets on Risky Assets Get Undercut by Strike Threats.
• FTX Customers Sue Sam Bankman-Fried as Part of Chapter 11 Case.   
• Apple Shares Hit Lowest Since June 2021 on iPhone Supply Concerns.  
• Tesla’s 2022 Collapse Hits 69% After Deepest Selloff Since April.

 Wall Street Journal:

• Southwest Airlines Fliers Contend With Lost Luggage Along With Canceled Flights.
• Misleading Ads Fueled Rapid Growth of Online Mental Health Companies.
• Chinese Rush Abroad as Zero-Covid Ends, Borders Reopen.
• Russia Bans Sales of Oil to Countries Imposing Price Cap.
• The Blue State Exodus Continues. The latest Census data show California losing, and Florida gaining, from U.S. domestic migration.
• Chip Inventories Swell as Consumers Buy Fewer Gadgets.
• FDA Weighs Regulating CBD in Foods and Supplements.
• Auto-Loan Interest Rates Are Skyrocketing. No One Told Credit Unions.
• At U.S. Pension Funds, Cash Cushions Hit a 15-Year Low.

Fox News:

• Unlikely team of SCOTUS justices issue scathing take on Biden's border handling.

CNBC.com:

• Here’s why 2023 could be another difficult year for the auto industry.
• Why restaurant chains are investing in robots and what it means for workers.
• Southwest warns of more flight cancellations as meltdown draws federal scrutiny.
• Chinese EV maker Nio cuts delivery guidance for fourth quarter, citing Covid disruptions.

Zero Hedge:

• US Supreme Court Rules To Keep Trump Border Policy In Place.
• Russia Dismisses "Smokescreen" Kyiv Offer Of February Peace Talks.
• Emergency Preps From A To Z.
• Impoverished Canadians Seek Euthanasia As A Solution While Trudeau Vacations In Jamaica.
• Special Forces Insider: The CIA Is Directing Sabotage Attacks In Russian Territory.
• Arizona Considers $5.5 Billion Water Desalination Plant, 200-Mile Pipeline From Mexico To Combat Drought.
• Students Speak Out On Anti-White, Anti-Christian, Anti-American Culture At Florida University.
• Some big stuff is MOVEing.
• Ukraine Wants UN-Backed Peace Deal With Russia, But On One Condition: Officials.
• China COVID-180 Sparks Hawkish Shift In US; Bonds & Stocks Dumped, Gold Jumps.
• The Lag Effect Of The Fiscal Pig And Economic Python.
• Bankman-Fried Criminal Case Assigned To Judge In bin Laden, Epstein-Linked Cases.
• DOJ Employed 'Reverse Spying' In Attempt To Shut Down Investigation Into Russia Collusion Hoax: Devin Nunes.

Newsmax:   

• Rep. Gohmert: Social Media Companies Should Face Liability.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• “Exposing Children to Sexually Explicit Activity is a Crime” – Florida Investigating “Drag Queen Christmas” Show Marketed to Children.
• The Crackdown: Brazilian Communist Supreme Court Issues Arrest Warrants for Opposition Leaders Including a Comedian and a Journalist.
• Rachel Levine Demands Big Tech Companies Censor “Misinformation” About “Gender Affirming Care” For Children.
• 16-Year-Old Hockey Player Dies on Christmas Day After Suffering Multiple Strokes.
• Study: Young Men More Likely To Be Shot Dead In Most Dangerous Parts Of Chicago And Philadelphia Than Afghanistan, Iraq.
• What, Me Worry? Biden To Leave for Warm Virgin Islands While Americans Freeze to Death.
• Trump: “Democrats Must Have Something Really Big On Mitch McConnell”.
• Hollywood And The Woke Entertainment Industry Lost Hundreds Of Billions In Market Value In 2022.

The Epoch Times:

• ‘Whether You Live or Die, No One Cares’: Chinese Left Helpless Amid COVID Crisis.
• CCP Works on an ‘Industrial Scale’ to ‘Capture Elites’ in Targeted Nations: Ex-Intelligence Officer.

Twitter: 

• @Heritage - WOKE PRIORITIES IN THE OMNIBUS. Here are just a few earmarks (a.k.a. your taxpayer dollars set aside for special interests or projects) we found in the 1,455 page spending bill that are funding the left’s extreme agenda using YOUR money.
• @RepDanBishop - My team and I are reading through the omnibus bill today - all $1.7 trillion and 4,155 pages of it. Follow along for some of the most egregious provisions in the bill. The omnibus passed the House with the help of 9 Republicans - Katko (NY) Jacobs (NY) Cheney (WY) Fitzpatrick (PA) Upton (MI) Davis (IL) Herrera-Beutler (WA) Kinzinger (IL) Womack (AR). 
• @CitizenFreePres - A list of the 21 Senate Republicans who voted in favor to pass the 4,000 page, $1.7 trillion spending bill... Notable: Susan Collins, Tom Cotton, Lindsey Graham, Chuck Grassley, Lisa Murkowski, Mitt Romney, Marco Rubio, Tommy Tuberville.
• @TPostMillennial - Elon Musk warns there's "great danger in training AI to lie" after ChatGPT prohibited from promoting fossil fuels. THOUGHT POLICE: Biden regime funds AI model to weed out "microaggressions" on social media.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 906,543 Reports(+3,216 from prior week) Through December 2nd, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 131.25 -2.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 78.25 unch. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 113.95 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.67 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  56.5 -.14%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.41 -2.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.5 -.01%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.23%.

• S&P 500 futures -.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.11%.  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• (CALM)/4.24
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Dec. is estimated to fall to -10 versus -9 in Nov.
• Pending Home Sales MoM for Nov. is estimated to fall -1.0% versus a -4.6% decline in Oct.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan Foreign Investment report, 5Y Y-Note auction and the weekly retail sales reports could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Passage of Stagflationary Omnibus Spending Bill, Rising Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.9 +4.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .96%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 56.5 +1.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.0 +.47%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.8 -.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.99 +1.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 +2.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .99 -1.0%

• NYSE Arms .84 +2.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.5 -.22%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 378.96 -.83%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 339.0 -23.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 103.59 +.68% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 449.09 n/a
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 211.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.79 +.68%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 239.44 -.34%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.4 -.04%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 28.0 basis points -.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 44.75 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -30.5 basis points unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  142.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 119.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .90 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.8 -.36%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.26% -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 113.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 80.99 euros/megawatt-hour -2.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.80 unch.

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 69.8 +.8 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -20.8 -1.0 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.80 +.07:  Growth Rate +10.9% -.4 percentage point, P/E 16.7 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.38 +2.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -55.0 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.66% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.52% unch.: CPI YoY +6.69% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 +5.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 55.8%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 40.5%(+9.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 154 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.9%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -75.0%(+.0 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -260 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +65 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +43 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -29.6% Below 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 61.8% of Issues Advancing, 34.4% Declining
• 50 New 52-Week Highs, 78 New Lows
• 39.6%(+3.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.0 +1.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 56.3 +1.3%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,106.9 -.72%
  
• Vix 22.3 +6.7%
• Total Put/Call 1.03 +3.0%
• TRIN/Arms .83 +1.2%