Monday, January 30, 2023

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:              

Fox News:
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch:                  
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:
Twitter: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.75 +3.25 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 52.0 +3.25 basis points. 
  • China Iron Ore Spot 127.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.34%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.5 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  58.4 -.08%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .27 -3.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.0 -.29%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.19%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.24%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.28%.  
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (CAT)/4.03
  • (GLW)/.44
  • (XOM)/3.28
  • (GM)/1.68
  • (IP)/.69
  • (MAN)/2.12
  • (MPC)/5.63
  • (MCD)/2.46
  • (MDC)/1.52
  • (NVR)/98.88
  • (PFE)/1.04
  • (PSX)/4.45
  • (PBI)/.08
  • (PII)/3.26
  • (PHM)/2.92
  • (SYY)/.84
  • (UPS)/3.59
After the Close:
  • (AMD)/.67
  • (AMGN)/4.08
  • (DOX)/1.34
  • (BXP)/1.84
  • (CP)/1.09
  • (CB)/4.25
  • (EA)/3.04
  • (IEX)/1.97
  • (JNPR)/.65
  • (MTCH)/.60
  • (MDLZ)/.70
  • (SNAP)/.12
  • (SYK)/2.84
  • (WDC)/-.13
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Employment Cost Index for 4Q is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a +1.2% gain in 4Q.
9:00 am EST
  • The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Nov. is estimated to fall -.5% versus unch. in Oct..
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for Nov. is estimated to fall -.7% versus a -.52% decline in Oct.
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA for Nov. is estimated to rise +6.7% versus a +8.64% gain in Oct.
9:45 am EST
  • The MNI Chicago PMI for Jan. is estimated to rise to 45.0 versus 44.9 in Dec.
10:00 am EST
  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Jan. is estimated to rise to 109.0 versus 108.3 in Dec.
10:30 am EST
  • The Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for Jan.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German retail sales report and the weekly US retail sales reports,  could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Higher for Longer" Worries, Earnings Outlook Concerns, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume:  Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.9 +7.6%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .76%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 58.6 -1.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.8 +.25%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.4 +.9%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.9 +3.6% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 118.0 -3.0 point
  • Total Put/Call .87 +6.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.24 +18.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.0 +2.1%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 356.98 +1.0%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 294.0 -11.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.19 +3.0% 
  • Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 345.3 +4.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 188.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 104.76 +1.4%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 229.0 +3.5%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.87 -.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 28.25 basis points +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 16.0 basis points +1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.5 -1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  132.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 107.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .70 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.5 -.21%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.65% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 126.6 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 55.1 euros/megawatt-hour -.49%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.4 -2.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 91.0 +6.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.2 +1.7 points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.79 -.68:  Growth Rate +9.9% -.5 percentage point, P/E 17.8 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .31 -7.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve -71.25 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +.67% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.30% -15.0 basis points: CPI YoY +6.39% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 84.3%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 51.3%(-5.6 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
US Covid-19:
  • 91 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.2%(-0.0 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -83.2%(-3.0 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +26 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +87 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +17 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -15.3% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
  • 41.8% of Issues Advancing, 54.1% Declining
  • 44 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
  • 56.3%(-1.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 61.0 -2.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 58.8 -.7%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,528.9 -.66%
  • Vix 19.8 +7.2%
  • Total Put/Call .83 +1.2%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.06 +.95%

Sunday, January 29, 2023

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:                                
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:     
MarketWatch.com:          
NewsMax:
TheGatewayPundit.com:  
Twitter:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.5% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.5 0 -.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 48.75 -.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 128.7 USD/Metric Tonne +1.8%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.6 +.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 59.5 +.5%.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .35 -3.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.6 +1.2%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.12%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.20%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.27%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (BEN)/.54
  • (HTLD)/.30
  • (SOFI)/-.08
After the Close:
  • (GGG)/.69
  • (HP)/.81
  • (NXPI)/3.63
  • (SANM)/1.38
  • (WHR)/3.29
Economic Releases
10:30 am EST
  • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Jan. is estimated to rise to -15.5 versus -18.8 in Dec.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone Consumer Confidence report could also impact trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.