Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Diminishing Global Bank Contagion Fears, US Economic Soft-Landing Hopes, Earnings Optimism, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.8 -9.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.69%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 48.2 +10.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.6 +.34%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.2 +.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 40.0 -6.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 +30.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .93 -6.1%

• NYSE Arms .86 -16.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 84.2 -4.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 422.62 -5.0%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 440.0 +74
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 124.04 -5.4% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 1,079.40 +10.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 190.0 basis basis points -8.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 139.75 +.16%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 259.30 -1.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.9 -.44%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 27.75 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 26.5 basis points +6.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.75 +10.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  162.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 628.0 +5.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 68.0 +5.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.1 +.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.65% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 128.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.3 euros/megawatt-hour +3.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 58.1 +9.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 49.2 -.6 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 21.4 -.5 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.30 -.15:  Growth Rate +1.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.5 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.38% unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.74 +38.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -58.75 basis points (2s/10s) +16.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.25% +10.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.73% unch.: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 -5.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 57.7%(+21.5 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 43.2%(+13.1 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +10 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +35 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/utility/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +1.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -1.1% 2) REITs -.3% 3) Foods unch.

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BXP, SLG, IOT, OPI, HASI, HALO, TNP and TITN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FRC 2) PACW 3) CFG 4) DPST 5) RILY
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LPSN 2) ESPR 3) VORB 4) PTRA 5) TGEN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +2.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Insurance +3.4% 2) AI/Robotics +3.3% 3) Semis +3.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• EVCM, PD, WAL, PATH, FRC, CERT, JBI, LOB, CMA, OCFC, ASO, WBS, WTFC, SNAP, SD, ZION, RF, AMD, BOH, PACW, BIVI, FRPT, KEY, RYAN, ANET, BMRN, UBSI, TCBI, ADBE, HOPE, UCBI, ZION, NCNO, OVV, HTGC, HOMB, OZK, ABCB, CFG, WOOF, GTLB, HWC, GOOG, VBTX, KEY, CVI, FCF, FHB, EQH, MEDP, QTWO, SAFE, HIG, PNC, WRB, IBOC, OXY, CADE, FITB, FBP, CFR, CVBF, AUB, VLY, MSFT, ASB, SASR, HES, ONB, FNB, EWBC, ZNTL and AX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PACW 2) FRC 3) KRE 4) DPST 5) SCHW

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PD 2) PATH 3) WE 4) YRD 5) ADBE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (BLDP)/-.14
  

After the Close: 

• (MANU)/.03
  

Economic Releases 

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.2% versus unch. in Jan.
• Capacity Utilization for Feb. is estimated to rise to 78.4% versus 78.3% in Jan.
• Manufacturing Production for Feb. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a +1.0% gain in Jan.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for Feb. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a -.3% decline in Jan.
• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for March is estimated at 67.0 versus 67.0 in Feb.
• Univ. of Mich. 1Yr Inflation Expectations for March is estimated at +4.1% versus an expectation of a +4.1% rise in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone CPI report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +37.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 6.7 +.5
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 62.9% of Issues Advancing, 32.6% Declining
• 14 New 52-Week Highs, 160 New Lows
• 37.5%(unch.) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 28.0 +4.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 45.7 +4.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,817.7 +1.0%
  
• Vix 23.9 -8.5%
• Total Put/Call .93 -6.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.25 +22.3%
  

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 137.25 +1.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 80.0 +4.75 basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 129.9 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.1 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  44.0 +.7%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.05 +7.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.2 -2.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +2.0%.

• S&P 500 futures +.31%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.44%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.