Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Diminishing Global Bank Contagion Fears, US Economic Soft-Landing Hopes, Earnings Optimism, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.8 -9.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.69%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 48.2 +10.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.6 +.34%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.2 +.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 40.0 -6.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 +30.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .93 -6.1%

• NYSE Arms .86 -16.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 84.2 -4.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 422.62 -5.0%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 440.0 +74
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 124.04 -5.4% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 1,079.40 +10.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 190.0 basis basis points -8.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 139.75 +.16%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 259.30 -1.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.9 -.44%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 27.75 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 26.5 basis points +6.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.75 +10.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  162.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 628.0 +5.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 68.0 +5.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.1 +.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.65% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 128.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.3 euros/megawatt-hour +3.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 58.1 +9.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 49.2 -.6 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 21.4 -.5 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.30 -.15:  Growth Rate +1.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.5 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.38% unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.74 +38.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -58.75 basis points (2s/10s) +16.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.25% +10.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.73% unch.: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 -5.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 57.7%(+21.5 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 43.2%(+13.1 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +10 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +35 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/utility/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long