Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Global Bank Contagion Fears, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Worries, Technical Selling, Financial/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.2 +9.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.45%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 42.5 -12.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.2 -.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.0 -.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.9 +9.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 83.0 -8.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.04 +7.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.53 +71.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 86.4 +3.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 448.77 +7.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 448.0 +8
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 132.4 +10.2% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 1,051.5 +5.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 195.0 basis basis points +5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.8 -2.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 262.2 +2.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.0 +.6%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.75 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 51.5 basis points +25.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -30.25 -4.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  157.0 -5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 634.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 72.0 +4.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.2 +.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.37% -28.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 130.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.64%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.9 euros/megawatt-hour -3.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 50.7 -7.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 48.4 -.8 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.8 -.6 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.83 +.53:  Growth Rate +1.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 17.3 -.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.36% -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.76 +14.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -53.5 basis points (2s/10s) +5.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.25% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.73% unch.: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 -9.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 56.6%(+16.9 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 42.5%(+23.4 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -529 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -30 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +185 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower:  On losses in my industrial/utility/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long