Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Diminished Global Bank Contagion Fears, Dovish Fed Hopes, Dollar Weakness, Commodity/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 24.7 -3.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.46%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 41.6 -1.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.9 +.17%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.0 +2.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.7 -3.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 82.0 -3.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .77 -23.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.0 -46.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 88.2 +1.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 453.85 -.28%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 464.0 +18
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 120.55 -6.2% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 453.7 -56.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 186.0 basis basis points -9.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 152.5 +11.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 266.2 +.25%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.9 -.28%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.5 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 66.25 basis points +14.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.5 +1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  163.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 631.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 72.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.3 +.15%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.57% +20.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 125.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.16%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.3 euros/megawatt-hour -8.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 49.5 -1.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 46.5 -1.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.0 -.8 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.97 +.14:  Growth Rate +1.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.4 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.36% unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.11 -15.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -47.75 basis points (2s/10s) +5.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.25% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.73% unch.: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.15 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 47.6%(-6.4 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 42.7%(+23.7 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -10 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +78 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +176 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/utility/medical/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long