Stocks Reversing Modestly Higher into Afternoon on Dovish FOMC Commentary, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Dollar Weakness, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.9 -2.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .63%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 49.0 +2.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 149.0 +.21%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.9 -.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 37.8 +.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 +16.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .80 -21.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.24 +79.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 83.0 +.06%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 424.03 +.88%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 440.0 +3
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 105.12 -1.96% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 287.67 -15.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 184.0 basis basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 140.0 -2.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 254.11 +.42%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.96 +.44%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 32.5 basis points +2.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 33.75 basis points +8.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.5 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  163.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 646.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 85.0 +4.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 +.39%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.67% +3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 121.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.85%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.0 euros/megawatt-hour -5.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 52.2 -.5 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 44.5 -.6 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.2 -.1 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.13 +.19:  Growth Rate +1.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.7 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.30% +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.33 +7.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -52.75 basis points (2s/10s) +5.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.25% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.73% unch.: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 +5.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 51.6%(-8.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 48.9%(+8.0 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -106 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +35 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +179 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/medical/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long