Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Diminished Global Bank Contagion Fears, Dovish Fed Hopes, Dollar Weakness, Commodity/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 24.7 -3.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.46%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 41.6 -1.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.9 +.17%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.0 +2.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.7 -3.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 82.0 -3.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .77 -23.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.0 -46.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 88.2 +1.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 453.85 -.28%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 464.0 +18
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 120.55 -6.2% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 453.7 -56.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 186.0 basis basis points -9.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 152.5 +11.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 266.2 +.25%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.9 -.28%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.5 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 66.25 basis points +14.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.5 +1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  163.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 631.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 72.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.3 +.15%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.57% +20.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 125.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.16%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.3 euros/megawatt-hour -8.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 49.5 -1.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 46.5 -1.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.0 -.8 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.97 +.14:  Growth Rate +1.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.4 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.36% unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.11 -15.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -47.75 basis points (2s/10s) +5.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.25% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.73% unch.: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.15 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 47.6%(-6.4 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 42.7%(+23.7 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -10 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +78 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +176 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/utility/medical/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Software -1.5% 2) Digital Health -.9% 3) Internet -.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• WMS, PTA, DICE, FL, KRTX, BTAI, PDD and FRC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RWM 2) FRC 3) DPST 4) FITB 5) OZK
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FRC 2) BBBY 3) CYTH 4) LPSN 5) PDD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +1.6%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Oil Service +3.3% 2) Insurance +2.7% 3) Regional Banks +2.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• FRG, PACW, TALO, ABR, ALLY, FITB, FLT, CERE, USB, SNV, CFG and SLG
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PACW 2) FRC 3) NYCB 4) DPST 5) CPRX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TALO 2) PACW 3) NVGS 4) ENPH 5) UNM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (CSIQ)/.96
• (ONON)/.06
  

After the Close: 

• (AIR)/.70
• (GME)/-.13
• (NKE)/.55
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity for March.
  

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for Feb. is estimated to rise to 4.2M versus 4.0M in Jan.

Upcoming Splits

• (GCBC) 2-for-1
• (FCUV) 3-for-2
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Construction spending report, 20Y T-Bond auction, weekly US retail sales reports, BofA Industrials Conference, DA Davidson Consumer Growth Conference, KeyBanc Life Sciences/MedTech Investor Forum and the (NVDA) financial analyst Q&A could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +42.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 7.1 +4.4
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 72.7% of Issues Advancing, 24.5% Declining
• 8 New 52-Week Highs, 57 New Lows
• 38.1%(+4.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 37.0 +8.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 41.9 -.9%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,811.1 -1.16%
  
• Vix 25.1 -1.6%
• Total Put/Call .78 -22.8%
• TRIN/Arms .94 -50.3%
  

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:                     

• Xi’s Embrace of Putin Dents His Chances of Playing Peacemaker on Ukraine.  
• China’s Surprise RRR Cut Puts Focus on Bank Lending Rates.
• Fed and Five Central Banks Announce Move to Boost Dollar Funding.
• UBS to Buy Credit Suisse in $3.3 Billion Deal to End Crisis.
• The One Big Winner and Many Losers of UBS’s Credit Suisse Rescue.
• Here Are Key Takeaways From UBS’s Historic Credit Suisse Deal.
• Latest Updates on UBS Deal to Buy Credit Suisse.
• Vulcan Facility Seizure Adds to Tension Between US and Mexico.
• Currency Markets Wobble After CS Deal as Fed Remains Acid Test.
• Asia Bank Bonds So Far Avoided Scale of Stress in US, Europe.
• El-Erian Says Credit Suisse Deal ‘Not Clean’ But Best Option.
• Credit Suisse’s Riskiest Bonds Jump Amid Optimism Over UBS Talks.
  
• Europe’s Green Protectionism Will Worsen its Energy Security. 
• US Futures Climb, Dollar Slips as Sentiment Turns: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Steadies at Week’s Open After Moves to Ease Banking Crisis.
• Tom Barrack Playing Key Role in Talks to Save First Republic.
• New York Community Bancorp to Pursue Deal for Signature.
• El-Erian Urges 25 Basis-Point Hike Saying Fed Shouldn’t Blink. 
• ‘Everybody’s in Limbo’: Bank Chaos Leaves Crypto With Dwindling Options. 
• The Scourge of Vaping Is Hiding in Plain Sight.
• Inside Apple’s Companywide Cost-Cutting Push to Avoid Layoffs. 
• Rising Rates Are Reshaping Once-Lucrative Commodity Trades. 
• Anxious Traders Map Out Strategies for Monday Market Drama.
• Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Outlook: Smaller Banks’ Economic Role Means Distress Raises Recession Risks
• How Did SVB’s Management Get It So Wrong?
• Signature Bank’s Quirky Customer Mix Hastened Fall.
• The Panic Spreads to Credit Suisse. The financial trouble is exposing many myths of the mania years.  
• Hospital ‘Black Boxes’ Put Surgical Practices Under the Microscope.
• Live Updates: Fate of Credit Suisse’s Riskiest Bonds.
• The Outlook: Banking Mess Raises Recession Risks.
• Escalating Demand for Soybean Oil Hits Possible Slowdown.
• Putin Makes First Known Trip to Seized Mariupol.
• TikTok’s Chinese Parent Has Another Wildly Popular App in the U.S.
• U.K. Billionaire Bidding for Manchester United Plots a U.S. Expansion.
• Biden’s ‘Go It Alone’ Trade Deals Draw Criticism.
• Twenty Years After U.S. Invaded Iraq, Congress Wants Its War Powers Back.
• Ford, GM in China Price War as Car Sales Slump.
• The Banking Sector Turmoil in Charts.
• Violent Protests in France Continue Over Pension Overhaul.

• How Biden Bailed Out California and New York. The real motivation lies in the states’ budgets, which depend on the success of green startups.

Fox News:

• Anti-capitalist teacher promotes anarchy, students having ‘no respect for authority’.
• DA's case against Trump hinges on witnesses with 'credibility problems': Andy McCarthy.
• North Korea claims 800,000 join army in a single day to fight the US.
• Robots are replacing security guards — and they could soon be capable of deadly force. 
• Blue city leader decries lack of police officers after voting to defund them.

CNBC:

• UBS offers to buy Credit Suisse for up to $1 billion, the Financial Times reports.
• General Motors’ China business is hurting, and it’s not just because of Covid.
• The top 10 most popular dog breeds in the U.S.
• FDIC announces agreement to sell Signature Bank assets to New York Community Bancorp subsidiary.
• S&P cuts First Republic deeper into junk, says $30 billion infusion may not solve problems.
• SVB collapse is double-whammy for tech startups already navigating brutal market.
• Top Wall Street analysts pick these five stocks for the long term.

Zero Hedge:    

• Fed Panics, Announces "Coordinated" Daily US Dollar Swap Lines To Ease Banking Crisis.
• UBS To Buy CS For $3 Billion As AT1 Bonds Get Wiped Out In Record Bail-In; Swiss Govt Grants CHF9BN Guarantee; SNB Offers $100 Billion Liquidity Backstop.
• Were The Bank Bailouts The Result Of Rising Wealth Concentration?
• Mike Wilson: "Why On Earth Did US Stocks Rally Last Week?".
• Musk Blasts Biden After Prez Lies Twice About '3% Billionaire Tax'.
• The Longer It Takes The Fed To "Go Big", The Deeper The Damage Will Be, And The Bigger The "Big" Will Be.
• Gold, Stocks, Bonds, & Bitcoin All Higher After Fed, SNB Panic. 
• TME Weekend: Not 2011, yet.
• "True Stories... Could Fuel Hesitancy": Stanford Project Worked To Censor Even True Stories On Social Media.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Liz Warren Makes War On Powell, And How 'Woke' SF Fed Chief Failed On SVB.
• 'Not QE' As Fed Trapped Between A 'Rock And A Hard Place'.
• Leftist Parents Flee Florida As Gender Treatments For Children Made Illegal.
• Mega-cap Tech is the new Safe Haven.
• 'Occupy Wall Street' Redux.
• The Comex Is In Far Worse Shape Than SVB If The Run On Physical Accelerates.
• "The New Normal": New York To Lower Math And English Proficiency Standards Due To Poor Test Result.
• FDIC Prepares To Break Up Silicon Valley Bank, Report Says.
• How The Fed's 2008 Mortgage Experiment Fueled Today's Housing Crisis.
• Florida Beaches Hit With Toxic 'Red Tide' As Giant Seaweed Blob Nears.
• GOP Headed For Showdown On Social Security And Medicare.
• Stoltenberg Vows Sweden 'Will Soon' Join NATO Despite Turkish Rejection.
• SBF, SVB...who is next?
• Oxfam 'Inclusivity' Guide Tells Staff To Avoid Using 'Offensive' Words Like 'Mother', 'People' and 'Headquarters'.
• Is The US Funding An Experiment In Digital Control In Ukraine?
• Watchdog Group Launches Investigation Into Biden’s 'Woke Army'.
• 'Conspiracy At Its Height': Fauci Responds To Message Saying He 'Prompted' Anti-Lab Leak Paper.
• FBI Is Now A 'Weaponized Apparatchik' Of The Presidential Administration: Whistleblower.
• Biden In Touch With Buffett On Bank Crisis.
• GOP Compromise Unintentionally Creates Universal Firearm Background Checks.

MarketWatch.com:  

• Braced for Monday: Markets and investors on edge as UBS moves closer to reported $1 billion all-share deal for Credit Suisse. 
• Banks under pressure: How to maximize your FDIC protection. 
• Bitcoin surges past $28,000 after UBS deal to buy Credit Suisse.

NewsMax:

• Norquist: SVB Collapse Attributable to Biden.
• Pence: Trump N.Y. Indictment Smells Just Like 'Russian Hoax'.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• HUGE NEWS for Election Integrity! TWO MORE States Cut Ties with ERIC Voter Roll Systems – OHIO and IOWA Are Out!
• Senator Josh Hawley and Missouri AG Andrew Bailey Respond to Potential Malpractice Regarding Minors at The Washington University Transgender Center at St. Louis Children’s Hospital.
• Dollar Tree Stops Selling Eggs Because They Are Too Expensive Now.
• Biden’s Bailout of Silicon Valley Bank Saved Chinese Investors, Democrat Gavin Newsom, Buzzfeed, VOX and BLM.
• Minnesota Aims to Become Third State to Adopt Ranked Choice Voting to Favor the Left.
• 25-Year-Old NFL Player Announces Sudden Retirement from Football – ‘My Health Is Above Anything’.
• BIDEN ECONOMY: Ed Dowd Issues Dire Warning, “We’re at the End and It’s Imploding on Itself” (VIDEO).
• Silicon Valley Bank Was on Federal Reserve’s Radar For More Than a Year – Fed Reserve of San Francisco Issued Six Citations and Flagged Bank as Ticking Time Bomb.
• Horror: CBS Meteorologist Collapses on Live TV Broadcast (VIDEO).
• Mark Levin on Democrat DA’s Indictment of President Trump: “This Is Soft Tyranny – Their Goal is to Destroy Civil Society” (VIDEO).
• African Country Burundi Detects Polio Outbreak Linked to Polio Oral Vaccine – Vaccine-Induced Polio is Now More Prevalent than the Wild Type.
• Advice to Trump Supporters Considering Protesting His Expected Arrest Next Week, from an Experienced Conservative Street Activist.
• Calls Grow on the Left for Trump to Be Held Without Bail – For a Misdemeanor.
• Two-Tiered Justice System: FEC Fined Hillary Clinton For Lying About Funding of Fake Russia Dossier…Was Never Threatened with Cuffs.

The Epoch Times:

• CCP-Backed Media in US Exploits Legal Loophole to Continue Anti-America Campaign.
• Tesco to Phase Out Chinese Surveillance Cameras Over Security, Human Rights Concerns.

Twitter:

• @Mayhem4Markets - CTAs: from buyers to sellers. (graph)
• @songpinganq - China's massive facial-recognition camera networks were hailed as a benign aid to residents that would let them pay subway fares. And it’s being deployed to crush dissents. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 943,911 Reports(+5,736 from prior week) Through March 10th, 2023.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 137.0 +2.0 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 76.0 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 129.50 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.2 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 42.2 +.1%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.11 -15.0 basis points. 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.3 -3.2%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.1%.
• S&P 500 futures +.73%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.59%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.