Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Earnings Outlook Optimism, US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Short-Covering, Tech/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.1 -9.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .80%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 57.0 +4.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 154.2 -.08%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.0 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.5 -7.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 94.0 +13.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .97 -4.9%

• NYSE Arms .89 -43.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.2 -2.0%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 385.6 -2.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 413.0 unch.
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 99.3 -2.1% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 364.4 -1.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 189.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 131.0 -.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 244.9 -1.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.7 -.1%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 29.25 basis points -2.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 10.5 basis points -9.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.25 -3.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 169.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 697.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 94.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.62 +.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.14% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.0 euros/megawatt-hour +1.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.0 -5.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 21.5 -7.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.5 +1.3 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.34 +.40:  Growth Rate +1.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 18.1 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.28% +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .14 +17.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.36 +7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -55.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.13% n/a
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.58% unch.: CPI YoY +5.19% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 71.0%(+7.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 59.9%(+12.3 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +208 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +59 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +145 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -1.6% 2) Energy -1.2% 3) Pharma -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• LEA, GOGO, MCHP, TER, APTV, VLO, PTEN, UCTT, DGX, SLAB, FCN, LUV, ON, PXD, WTW, IQV, KDP, ICLR, AMBA, URI, HP, MEDP, CIB, DPZ, NBR, ASGN, ALGM, ABBV, NOV, STM, MC, LSCC, ALGN, SNBR, OPRA, SAH, HEES, ICPT, MXL, WOLF, ENVX, PRCT, CROX, MBLY, FDMT, AZPN and PI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) INDI 2) MBLY 3) PI 4) BC 5) NOV
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ASPN 2) WOLF 3) PI 4) MBLY 5) ASGN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Internet +3.1% 2) Alt Energy +2.3% 3) Construction +1.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HELE, META, HAS, NOVA, TRUP, GGG, OSTK, GSHD, LII, CNMD, TDOC, TMHC, HZO, IR, MMSI, SNAP, EBAY, FTAI, ROKU, WSC and KEX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BGFV 2) VTRS 3) GLNG 4) AWK 5) APLT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) META 2) ATOM 3) FCFS 4) GWW 5) USEG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (AON)/5.32
• (ARCB)/1.96
• (BLMN)/.89
• (CRI)/.57
• (CHTR)/7.56
• (CVX)/3.41
• (CL)/.70
• (XOM)/2.60
• (GNTX)/.37
• (JKS)/.51
• (LYB)/1.74
• (NWL)/-.03
• (SAIA)/2.68

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The 1Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a +1.0% gain in 4Q.
• Personal Income for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in Feb.
• Personal Spending for March is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.2% gain in Feb.
• The PCE Core Deflator MoM for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Feb.
  

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for April is estimated to fall to 43.6 versus 43.8 in March.
  

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Sentiment revisions for April.

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Services Activity Index for April.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The BOJ decision could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -9.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.1 +.2
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 57.4% of Issues Advancing, 40.2% Declining
• 16 New 52-Week Highs, 41 New Lows
• 38.3%(+1.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 44.0 -2
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 56.6 +4.1%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,990.8 +.23%
• 1-Day Vix 11.4 -17.0%
  
• Vix 17.6 -6.7% 
  
• Total Put/Call .99 -2.9%
• TRIN/Arms 1.0 -34.8%
  

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• China and the Fed Keep Investors Swinging Between Oil and Gold.
• Five Takeaways From Japan’s Big Global Market Influencers.
• Nomura Shares Fall Most Since November 2021 After Profit Slumps.
• Asia Stocks Decline as US Futures Rally on Tech: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Erases All Gains Since Surprise OPEC+ Cut on Demand Woes.
• McCarthy Debt Plan Passes House, Escalating Standoff With Biden.
• Goldman Says Big US Tax Haul Means Debt-Limit Deadline in July.
• First Republic Faces Potential Curb on Borrowing From Fed.
• Boeing Says ‘Gnarly’ Defect Is Disrupting Work on Its 737 Jets.
• JPMorgan Creates AI Model to Analyze 25 Years of Fed Speeches.
• Why Flying Is So Expensive and Likely to Remain That Way. 
• Penicillin in Shortage as Syphilis, Strep Cases Rise in US.
• Disney’s Emboldened Iger Escalates Fight With Florida’s DeSantis.

Zero Hedge:

• A Grand Alliance To Overcome The Elite Betrayal Of America.
• San Francisco Target Places Entire Aisles Behind Security Glass Amid Shoplifting Crisis 
• House Passes Debt Limit Bill, Setting Stage For Showdown.
• "Attack On Canadian Economy:" Vancouver Grain Export Terminal Hit With Strike.
• Tucker Speaks In First Public Comments Since Split From Fox; Fans Plan To Boycott.
• Where Did All The Biden Illegal Immigrants Go? Hard-Up Sanctuary Cities Are Only Part Of The Answer.
• Erdogan Cancels Public Rallies After Live TV 'Health Scare', Blasts "Baseless" Rumors.
• Western Alliance's CFO Blames 'Puts' For Crashing His Stock... Here's Why That's Doubtful.
• China Is Quickly Becoming One Of The Largest Automobile Exporters In The World.
• US stocks were mostly lower amid banking sector woes, while the Nasdaq was kept afloat by tech earnings - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Musk Slams DNC's "Backroom Dealing" As Committee Remains Silent On Primary Debates.
• Fauci Admits Orwellian Mandates Fueled Anti-Vax Sentiment.
• Puts comeback, mega-cap crowding concerns...but buybacks are kicking in soon.
• Make Americans Work Again.
• Stocks mixed as First Republic knocks on death's door but Microsoft keeps the bid in tech.
• Meta Soars After Top- & Bottom-Line Beat; 'Metaverse' Losses Grow, MAUs Disappoint.
• Big-Tech & Bitcoin Jump, Bonds & Bank Stocks Dump As US Default Risk Soars.

Wall Street Journal:

• Fauci and the New York Times. Now he’s refusing to accept responsibility for promoting lockdowns.
• The U.S. Military Relies on One Louisiana Factory. It Blew Up.
• House Republicans Pass Debt-Ceiling Bill.
• Schools Ditch Homework for ‘Equitable Grading’.
• China’s Xi Makes First Call to Ukraine’s Zelensky Since Russian Invasion.

CNBC.com:

• Amazon starts layoffs in HR and cloud units: Read the memos announcing the cuts.
• Chinese retailers helped lift Meta’s first-quarter sales in a tough online advertising market.
• First Republic’s dramatic slide continues, stock falls nearly 30% as bank looks for rescue deal.
  

MarketWatch:

• Fed ‘accident’ could slice 20% off the S&P 500, stock strategist Rosenberg warns. Here are 3 ways to protect your money now.
• Mattel says retailers are still skittish about stocking up on toys, but sticks with its financial outlook.
• Roku stock pops after earnings beat, though ad market remains challenging.
• EBay stock jumps 4% as company swings to quarterly profit.
• Opinion: Insider selling could be signaling recession and a stock market selloff.
• Job postings for this white-collar profession have plummeted 55%, Indeed says.

Newsmax:   

• House GOP Passes Debt Bill, Pushes Biden on Spending.

Fox News:

• Artificial intelligence is set to revolutionize this $10 trillion industry.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING… HHS Whistleblower Tara Lee Rodas Tells Congress Biden Administration Is “Middleman” in Multi-Billion Dollar Migrant Child Trafficking Operation.
• BREAKING: New York Court Puts Triple Amputee and War Veteran Brian Kolfage in Prison for Four Years for Building US Border Wall.
• Speaker McCarthy Challenges Biden, Schumer After House Republicans Pass US Debt Ceiling Bill (VIDEO).
• 8 Dead Bodies Found Dumped in Mexican Resort of Cancun.
• Joe Biden: “I Can’t Even Say How Old I Am…I Can’t Even Say the Number. It Doesn’t Register with Me” (VIDEO).
• Vermont Elementary School Will Use”Person Who Produces Sperm” or “Person Who Produces Eggs” Instead of Male and Female in Health Sciences Lessons.
• Biden Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm Supports Requiring U.S. Military to Adopt All-Electric Vehicle Fleet by 2030.
• People Are Taking to Twitter with Stories About Tucker Carlson’s Kindness: ‘Something I Will Never Forget’.
• REPORT: Deep-Staters at the Pentagon Are Celebrating the Departure of Tucker Carlson From FOX News.
• “They [FOX] Can’t Afford to Have Hosts Who Are Pushing Americanism” – Kari Lake Sends Message to Tucker Carlson, Discusses Joe Biden’s Re-Election Bid With Eric Bolling.
  

The Epoch Times:

• Chinese Money Launderers Are Central to Cartels’ Fentanyl Trade: Rep. McClain.
• IN-DEPTH: Battle for the Heartland–How US Farmland is Quietly Falling Into Chinese Hands.

Twitter:

• @greg_price11 - Tucker: "See you soon". (video)
  
• @charliekirk11 - BREAKING: Ex-producer suing Tucker Carlson has never even met him.
• @C_Barraud - Quants Are ‘Out of Ammo’ for Buying #Stocks, Goldman Warns - Bloomberg *Trigger signal flashed for #CTAs with S&P 500 dropping Tuesday *Stocks seen facing $276 billion selling in event of big rout. (graph)
• @nickgerli1 - Money Supply contracts again in March.  This is a massive economic warning. Money Supply contraction hasn't happened in 90 years. Only other times it has happened we had Depression / Major Banking Crisis. (graph)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 953,415 Reports(+1,831 from prior week) Through April 14th, 2023.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 133.75 +3.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 75.5 +1.0 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.02%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 54.5 +.11%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.11 -7.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.3 -.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.40%.

• S&P 500 futures +.17%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.43%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.