Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Israel Risks ‘Strategic Defeat’ If It Doesn’t Protect Civilians, Austin Says.
• Top US General Still Waiting to Hear from China on Military Ties. 
• Ukraine Warns of Nuclear Risks as Zelenskiy Prepares to Dig In.
• These Are the World's Most Expensive Cities to Live In Right Now.
• Surprise Call Shocks Staid Corner of Bond Market.
• Trump, DeSantis Grasp for Last-Minute Iowa Support Before Caucus.
• B-Schools Are Feeling The Pressure From Falling Applications. 
• Meme-Stock Crowd Plows Into Cross-Asset Rally Lifting Risky Bets.
• Wall Street Week: Where Have All the Diplomats Gone?
• Wall Street Bets on Soft Landing Again in Best Month Since 2008. 
• US Payrolls Are Seen Picking Up After End of UAW Strike.

Zero Hedge:

• Rogan: Democrats Have "No Cards To Play" For 2024, Except Imprisoning Trump.
• "Two Words... Tucker Carlson": Greg Gutfeld Gores Fox After Musk Blasts Activist Advertisers.
• Jan. 6 Committee Tapes Have Disappeared, Says House Republican.
• Trump Is Not Immune From Lawsuits Over Jan. 6: Federal Court.
• Pickup Trucks Dominate US Auto Sales.
• 'Disturbing Gibberish': New Trans Textbook For Psychiatrists Could Harm Millions Of Kids, Critics Say.
• Recession Risk: Which Sectors Are Least Vulnerable?
• House Passes Bill To 'Permanently Freeze' $6BN In Iranian Funds.
• Americans Couldn't Care Less About Christmas Markets.
• New CDC Director Defends Vaccine Mandates, School Closures.
• Inmate Who Shanked Derek Chauvin 22 Times Is Former FBI Informant Who Led Mexican Mafia Faction.
• Watchdog To Probe FBI Headquarters Selection Process Amid Claims Of Political Bias.
• Boeing Drops Out Of USAF's 'Doomsday' Replacement Plane Competition.
• Israeli AI 'Assassination Factory' Plays Central Role In Gaza War.
• Bidenomics Winning? 60% Of Americans Report Their Income Does Not Keep Up With Inflation.
• A Crime Against Humanity...
• Private Jets Headed To Global Warming Conference "Literally Frozen On Runway".
• Never Mind Bogus Measures Of Inflation - Purchasing Power Is What Counts, And It's Decaying.
• The ultimate guide to "why we are NOT yet there".
• David Stockman: How American Neocons Wrecked The Middle East And Ukraine.
• Tiger Global's Top Venture Fund Suffers 18% Loss Following Portfolio Markdowns.
• Trannysaurus Rex: The Activist Academics 'Queering' Dinosaurs.
• North Korea & Eritrea Dominate The Global Hotspots Of Modern Slavery.
• Self-Amplifying RNA Shots Are Coming: The Untold Danger.
• Put seller king reigns as greed grows.
• Campus Dysfunction Easy To Recognize, Difficult To Cure.

Wall Street Journal:

• Divorce With Apple, Internal Strife: How Goldman’s Main Street Bet Failed
• Welcome to the Tiny Island Paradise Fending Off China
• Congress Expels George Santos. Who’s Next? Allowing due process for indicted lawmakers is now out the window.
• EV Battery Plant Rides Bumpy Road in This Michigan Town.
• For the First Time, Most Golfers Play Off-Course.
• Need a Job? America’s Smallest Employers Have a Record Share of Openings.
• Outsize Profits Helped Drive Inflation. Now Consumers Are Pushing Back.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (PEP) and (RPM).

CNBC:

• Exxon Mobil CEO urges COP28 to focus on reducing emissions — not phasing out fossil fuels
• Pfizer’s twice-daily weight loss pill joins a long list of obesity drug flops
• U.S. lays out plan at COP 28 to slash climate ‘super pollutant’ methane from oil and gas.

Reuters:

• Wall St Week Ahead Tax-loss selling, 'Santa rally' could sway U.S. stocks after November melt-up.
• Walmart says it is not advertising on social platform X.

MarketWatch.com:

• Here’s why Nvidia is a compelling stock when compared with the rest of the ‘Magnificent Seven’.
• Here are the odds the stock market ends 2023 on a high note.
• U.S. joins other nations in swearing off coal power to clean the climate.

NewsMax:

• Gov. Ron DeSantis: GOP Must End 'Californication of America'.
• Arab Leaders to Israel: Annihilate Hamas.
• VP Harris: US Will Not Permit Forced Relocation of Palestinians.

Fox News:

• Chinese officials lash out at western media as respiratory illnesses flood their hospitals.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• UPDATE: DOD Blocks US Navy Medical Officer’s Computer Access After He Exposed Alarming Surge in Heart Issues Among Pilots Following COVID-19 Vaccination (VIDEO).
• HE WENT THERE: Greg Gutfeld Drops Bomb on Fox News Over Tucker Carlson’s Firing — Panel Gasps (VIDEO).
• Christian Family Forcibly Removed from Home at Gun Point, Handcuffed and Locked in Van After FBI Allegedly “Goaded” 15-Year-Old Son into Posting Controversial Memes.
• Biden’s Climate Czar John Kerry Announces Global Push for Coal Phase-Out: ‘First Step is Stop Building New Unabated Coal Power Plants’.
• One Dead, Two Injured in Paris Terror Attack – Islamist Was Shouting “Allahu Akbar” During Attack Near Eiffel Tower.
• Swing State Muslims Start #AbandonBiden Campaign Over Support for Israel in War with Hamas: Report.
• Boat Full of Illegal Aliens Lands on Beach Near Homes of Famous Actors in Malibu, CA (VIDEO).
• Speaker Johnson Says Vote on Biden Impeachment Inquiry is “Necessary Step” After Biden WH Stonewalled Congressional Investigations (VIDEO).
• The EU Wants to SEIZE Your Old Car to Meet Climate Goals.
• Leo Hohmann: FBI Tells Newsweek that Trump Supporters are Enemies of the State and Must be Secretly Tracked, Monitored, Investigated.
• IDIOTS: GOP Rep Announces Retirement Leaving Republicans with Only +3 Majority After They Ousted Conservative George Santos from Congress.
• Olympic Gold Medal Swimmer Sentenced for Being at the Capitol on January 6.
• Biden’s DOJ Fines Tennessee Christian Trucking Company $700,000 for Requiring Workers to Disclose Legal Status.
• WATCH: Newsmax Host Eric Bolling Hilariously Tells Chris Christie to His Face That ‘People Hate Me When I Bring You On’.
• MUST SEE: Paul Harvey’s Famous 1965 “Warning to America” Essay – Put to Life by Ultra MAGA Party.
• California Father Says Transgender Volleyball Player Gave His Daughter a Concussion, Knocked Her Out of Playing Entire Season.
• German Chancellor Scholz and His Globalist Coalition Are Under Fire for Budget Shenanigans and Unchecked Mass Migration.
• FLASHBACK: Swampy Kevin McCarthy Says Matt Gaetz Is Next RINO-Uniparty Target After George Santos for Removal from Congress (VIDEO).
• SAD TROMBONE: The Washington Post is Laying Off Hundreds of Staffers.
• SHOCK VIDEO: Smuggler Directs Massive Group of Illegal Aliens Through Hole in Border Wall, Taunts Border Patrol Agents.

X:

• @TheChiefNerd - TUCKER: "One thing I know for a fact about Gavin Newsom is he has the capacity to beat a lie detector test…Gavin Newsom's palms don't sweat. His respiration doesn't increase. His body temperature doesn't change. Nothing changes in Gavin Newsom when he lies to your face. And there are not that many people like that."
  
• @_aussie17 - Holy moly! According to OIA, New Zealand's All Cause Mortality for (0-4 Years) shot up to 608 (from average of aprox 340) in 2022!! (graph)
• @KobeissiLetter - JUST IN: Search interest for "cancel Disney+" and "cancel Hulu" surges 120% after Elon Musk interview. In a poll we conducted on X with 90,000 responses, 68.5% of respondents said they will be cancelling their subscriptions. BREAKING: Unrealized losses on investment securities held by US banks hit $684 billion in Q3, according to the FDIC. This marks a 22.5% jump compared to unrealized losses seen last year.
• @RWMaloneMD - Dr. Kadlec, The former Assist. Sec. for Preparedness and Response at HHS says Dr Fauci, Dr. Collins and himself decided to divert attention away from the lab leak theory because they were afraid of what would be revealed, as well as their guilt and the public response. Listen carefully. (video)
• @VigilantFox - The Four Deadly Ways COVID Vaccines KiII: Insights from Dr. Peter McCullough. (video)
• @FinanceLancelot - They've changed the criteria for calculating inflation significantly since March 2021.
• @MrAndyNgo - Foreign national migrants line up in the East Village neighborhood of Manhattan to receive public services. (video)
• @stillgray - Gavin Newsom propped up Nikki Haley multiple times during his debate with DeSantis. Really makes you think.
• @KenPaxtonTX - BREAKING: I am suing Pfizer for misrepresenting Covid-19 vaccine efficacy and conspiring to censor public discourse.
• @IGSquawk - Weekend markets update: #DAX 16452 +0.01% #DOW 36262 +0.01% #NASDAQ 16004 +0.04% #FTSE 7533 +0.02% #HANGSENG 16919 +0.11% #GBPUSD 12710.8 +0.02% #EURUSD 10886.5 +0.01% #USDJPY 14672.2 +0.07%.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 988,705 Reports(+5,406 from prior week) Through October 27th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• White House Says Israel ‘Mindful’ of Need to Protect Civilians.
• US Navy, UK, Australia Will Test AI System to Help Crews Track Chinese Submarines in the Pacific.
• Hedge Funds Hiked Bearish Oil Bets Heading Into OPEC+ Meeting.
• Wall Street Bets on Soft Landing Again in Best Month Since 2008.
• Bill Gross Recession Bet Has Minted Millions From Bond Rally.
• Americans Are Finally Turning Frugal After Splurging Over Summer.
• Burned Shorts, COP Win and Cybertrucks: Saturday Asia Briefing.
• Real Estate Euphoria Highlights Trader Angst for End to Hikes.
• Pricier Cars, Rent and Even Pets: Why Americans Hate the Economy.

Zero Hedge:

• Powell Comments Send Everything Soaring, Gold Hits All Time High, Dollar Plummets As Market Prices In Rate Cuts
• Israel Pounds Southern Gaza As Officials Say 'Long War' Expected For A Year Or More
• First Hospital In Nation To Require COVID-19 Vaccines Will End Mandate.
• The Biggest Lies Used By Gavin Newsom In His Debate With Ron DeSantis.
• 8 Espionage Hacks To Outsmart The Masters Of Miscommunication.
• Did Elon Musk's 'GFY' Tirade Accelerate Pivot In Advertising Strategy? 
• Here Are The 38 Lawmakers Leaving Congress In 2024 (Twice As Many Democrats As Republicans).
• Why Are Searches For 'Trailer Park Near Me' Erupting? 
• The Urgency Of Strengthening America’s Electric Grid Cybersecurity.
• You Thought Murder Hornets Were Bad? The "Super Pig" Invasion Looms.
• Trump Claims 'Cheating' In Wisconsin Election Case: 'Republicans Must Do Something'.
• Hezbollah Rejoins Fight, Lebanese Civilians Killed, After Gaza Truce Ended.
• Economist Magazine's Most Damning Ukraine Admission Yet.
• Our National Bankruptcy: Moral, Economic, And Political.
• Powell, You Have A Problem: Gold Hits All Time High As Markets Price In Rate Cuts As Soon As March.
• Watch: Boat Full Of Suspected Migrants Invades Malibu Beach.
• Chrysler Building's EU Co-Owner Goes Bankrupt.
• Stocks and Bonds rip as rate cut pricing deepens after Powell's speech - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.

Wall Street Journal:

• How Tesla’s Cybertruck Compares With Other Pickups.
• The Biden-Blinken Rules of War for Israel. The U.S. tells Israelis how they must fight in Gaza, which could help Hamas.
• Fighting Resumes in Gaza as Weeklong Cease-Fire Stalls.
• Rate Hikes Are Probably Over, but Fed Officials Are Reluctant to Say.
• Meta Is Struggling to Boot Pedophiles Off Facebook and Instagram.
• Texas Ordered to Remove Buoy Barrier at Southern Border.
• The Startling Economics of the World’s Largest Cruise Ship.
• Rift Over Fossil Fuels to Dominate COP28.

CNBC:

• Pfizer to discontinue twice-daily weight loss pill due to high rates of adverse side effects.
• Fed Chair Powell calls talk of cutting rates ‘premature’ and says more hikes could happen.
• Media stocks jump after report says Apple, Paramount are discussing streaming bundle.
• Inside Apple’s chip lab, home to the most ‘profound change’ at the company in decades.
• Amazon buys SpaceX rocket launches for Kuiper satellite internet project.
• Zero-day commodity options have now entered the ETF space.
• Investors piled cash into money market mutual funds in 2023 and now could see a higher tax bill.

MarketWatch.com:

• Uber and Jabil to join the S&P 500 index.
• Dow near record high because traders are calling bluff on a ‘higher-for-longer’ Fed.
• Powell says premature to speculate on when interest rates will be cut.

NewsMax: 

• Blinken Suggests Clock Running Out for Israel's War on Hamas.
• US Appeals Court Says Texas Must Remove Rio Grande Buoys.
• Blaine Holt: Biden Pitch for Ukraine Funding Is 'Disgusting'.

Fox News:

• Opera devolves into chaos when activists interrupt performance — and audience shouts back

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Victor Reacts: Here We Go Again- Mysterious Chinese Pneumonia Outbreak (VIDEO).
• JUST IN: Hate Hoaxer Jussie Smollett Headed Back to Jail.
• You Can’t Make This Up: Derek Chauvin’s Attacker, John Turscak, Is a Former Mexican Mafia and a Former FBI Informant.
• REVEALED: Former Minneapolis Cop Derek Chauvin was Stabbed 22 TIMES – New Details Emerge Including His Alleged Attacker’s Identity.
• Illegal Alien Charged with Capital Murder After Fatally Shooting Texas Sisters in the Head.
• Vivek Ramaswamy Receives Stern Warning from Former FBI Agent: “Jesus, Be Careful…I’d Get Some Very, Very, Competent Help Before You Went Places” (VIDEO).
• EXCLUSIVE: “They’re Stupid” – Arizona Congressman Paul Gosar Shares Why He Voted Against George Santos Expulsion, Weighs in on The 105 RINOs Who Voted With Democrats.
• Walmart is the Latest Company to Cease Advertising on Elon Musk’s X Platform.
• POWDER KEG AMERICA: Venezuela Votes in a Referendum Asking Whether They Should Invade Neighbor Guyana and Occupy 74% Of Its Territory!
• Beef Company CEO: “The Climate Change Argument Against Cows Is Garbage and We Will Not Comply”.
• US Senators Urge Biden to Ban Travel from China Amid Mysterious Pneumonia Outbreak.
• Seriously? Deadspin Journalist Triples Down on Attack Against 9-Year-Old Native American Chiefs Fan.
• Zuckerberg ‘Unconcerned’ About App ‘Encouraging Girls into Body Dysmorphia’.
• Actress Julianna Margulies on the Rise of Antisemitism in America: Woke College Kids with ‘They/Them’ Pronouns Supporting Hamas Would Be ‘Beheaded’ in Gaza.
• Leo Hohmann: Move Afoot in Congress to Ban U.S. Airports from Secretly Scanning Passengers’ Faces and Indefinitely Storing Their Personal Biometric Data.
• 22-Year-old Duluth Football Player Dies from Cardiac Arrest During Football Workout.

Epoch Times:

• The CCP Is Causing China’s Economic Problems.
• Lawmakers Warn China's Growing Dominance in LiDAR Technology Could Threaten US National Security

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 988,705 Reports(+5,406 from prior week) Through October 27th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,594.6 +.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 36,245.5 +2.4%

• NASDAQ 14,305.0 +.4%

• Russell 2000 1,862.6 +3.1%

• NYSE FANG+ 8,210.7 -.9% 
• Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 36.94 +11.9%
  

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 141.3 +8.1%

• Wilshire 5000 45,805.2 +1.2%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,935.5 +.34%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,564.49 +1.9%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 747.05 +.55%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,326.88 +.34%
  

• NYSE Technology 4,086.1 +1.6%

• Transports 15,463.7 +2.5%

• Utilities 876.01 +1.2%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 88.72 +1.9%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 39.65 +.47%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 188.72 +.70%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 106.73 -.05%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 461,644 +.86%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 5.2-20.5%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 140 +221
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -28.7 +16.6%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 207,324 -3.9%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,553,677 -5.2%

• Total Put/Call .84 -25.0%

• OEX Put/Call .94 -37.3%

• ISE Sentiment 127.0 +1.0 point
  

• NYSE Arms .88 +2.33%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 60.8 -9.8%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .52 +9.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index .23 -15.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 12.6 +1.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .84% +196.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 21.1 +9.8%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.51 +4.6%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.83 +1.7%

• Smart Money Flow Index 13,275.3 +.48%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  81.4 +3.4
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.836 Trillion +1.3%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$7.573 Million

• AAII % Bulls 48.8 +7.7%

• AAII % Bears 19.6 -17.0%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 270.77 -.45%

• Crude Oil 74.07/bbl. -1.5%

• Reformulated Gasoline 212.11 -.63%

• Natural Gas 2.81 -1.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 43.5 euros/megawatt-hour -5.0%
  

• Heating Oil 266.15 -5.7% 
• Newcastle Coal 135.5 (1,000/metric ton) +5.9%
  

• Gold 2,072.22 +3.6%
• Silver 25.5 +4.8%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 406.9 -.4%

• Copper 393.15 +3.7%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 383.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.52%

• China Iron Ore Spot 130.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.53%

• CME Lumber  525.5 -4.8%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,576.75 -.15%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 322.50 USD/Short Ton -3.0%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 4Q Forecast +1.19% -.91 percentage point
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate (graph)
  
• US Recession Within 3 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.4% +3.5 percentage points
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.12 +15.9%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 94.2 +129.2%
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(491 of 500 reporting) +4.5% n/a

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 242.07 n/a:  Growth Rate +9.3% n/a, P/E 18.9 n/a
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.13% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +50.6% n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 284.46 n/a: Growth Rate +33.4% n/a, P/E 30.0 n/a
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.6 -5.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -23.7 -.9 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.8 +3.4 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply .00%(-0.0 percentage point) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 97.3%(+1.8 percentage points) chance of no change, 2.7%(-1.8 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 12/13
  

• US Dollar Index 103.19 -.27%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,717.50 +.46%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 38,779.3 +2.89%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 171.14 -2.2%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -34.5 +14.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.23% -24.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.759 Trillion -.2% 
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.557 Billion +16.8%
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 47.0 -4.8%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 178.6 -3.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 174.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 35.4 -.23%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 58.9 -1.6%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 145.2 -2.0%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 114.6 -2.0%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.3 -5.3%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.38 -.5%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 76.69 -4.0%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +5.9% unch.
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.2% unch.
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.3% unch.
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.9% unch.
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.46% -9.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.04% -6.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23% -5.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 25.75 +1.25 basis points
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -18.25 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.0 +3.25 basis points
  

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 61.3 -2.5%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 167.0 -2.6% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 345.0 +17.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 76.6 -2.9%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 233.81 -3.7%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 186.45 -1.9%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 152.0 -9.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 944.0 +6.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .88 -4.0 basis points
  

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -3.3% +30.0 basis points
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,275.2 +1.7%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 220,000 -.23%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 39.3 -21.1%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.57% -24.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 176,100 +.28%

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.90% +70.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY n/a
  
• Box Office Weekly Gross $207.9M +80.70%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.25/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,937.0 +39.7%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 857.72 -2.2%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.50 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 23.8 -32.1%

• Rail Freight Carloads 219,384 -16.9%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,266,124 -13.0%
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +3.0%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +.3%

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +7.4%

• Regional Banks +6.7%
• REITs +4.6%
  

• Steel +4.6%
  

• Retail +4.3%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Foods -.4%
  

• Healthcare Providers -.5%
  

• Oil Service -.9%

• Gambling -1.1%
  

• Electric Vehicles -1.3%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (50)

• ESTC, PATH, IOT, AAOI, GCT, UPST, VNO, MARA, LYFT, APLS, BXP, BMEA, PARA, HCP, ZUMZ, ERO, ETRN, AFRM, RIOT, ARE, NVRO, ASO, CC, GTLB, METC, BANC, VAC, CRDO, CLF, DOMO, COIN, SATS, PRO, ABR, ERJ, CCU, ONB, GME, FCX, UMBF, MSTR, CNHI, FLT, WEN, BHP, FA, TCBI, CRM and SBLK
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (4)

• PFE, DELL, CWAN and MRVL
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Soaring Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Lower Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.7 -1.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .76% +46.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 60.4 -2.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 171.2 -.96%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.84 +.26%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 21.1 +2.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 -7.0
  

• Total Put/Call .82 -7.9%

• NYSE Arms .91 +40.0% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$215.9M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.4 -1.77%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 336.7 -.16%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 345 +15.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.6 -2.0% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 233.8 -1.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 174.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.3 -.48%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 184.6 -1.6%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 114.6 -.43%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.38 -.11%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -18.5 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 25.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.0 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 153.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 944.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 88.0 -3.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.8 +.18%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.37% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 131.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.16%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 43.5 euros/megawatt-hour +3.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.6 -4.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -23.7 +6.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.8 +3.8 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(491 of 500 reporting) +4.5% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 242.07 +.06:  Growth Rate +9.3% unch., P/E 18.9 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.13% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +50.6% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 284.46 +.46: Growth Rate +33.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 29.0 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .52 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .23 +5.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -33.75 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +1.77% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 55.3% -1.9 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.46% unch.: CPI YoY +3.04% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st FOMC meeting: 83.8%(-8.6 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 20th meeting: 57.3%(+15.8 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +34 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +67 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/utility/transport sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for Oct. is estimated to fall -2.9% versus a +2.8% gain in Sept.
• Final Durable Goods Orders readings for Oct.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UBS TMT Conference, Jefferies Cyber Security Summit, Raymond James TMT Consumer Conference, (SLG) investor meeting and the (AFRM) annual meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +15.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.0 unch.
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 82.9% of Issues Advancing, 15.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .95 +46.2% 
• Non-Block Money Flow +$204.8M
  
• 134 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
• 50.0%(+6.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 74.0 +5.0

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 60.2 -3.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,325.6 -.77%
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.8 -14.1%
  
• Vix 12.7 -2.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .83 -6.7%