Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AAP)/.21
• (BIDU)/17.55
• (DCI)/.74
• (EME)/3.55
• (ODP)/.74
• (PDCO)/.60
• (TJX)/1.12
• (VIPS)/5.03
• (WRBY)/.01
  

After the Close: 

• (AMC)/-.57
• (AI)/-.28
• (DUOL)/.04
• (FWRD)/.98
• (HPQ)/.81
• (JAZZ)/5.18
• (MYRG)/1.50
• (OKTA)/.51
• (CRM)/2.27
• (SNOW)/.18
• (SQM)/1.09
• (DLTR)/2.66
• (NTES)/12.19
• (WB)/.50
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• 4Q GDP revisions.
• Advance Goods Trade Balance for Jan. is estimated to widen to -$88.5B versus -$87.9B in Dec.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.8% gain in Dec.  
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in Dec.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +2,563,400 barrels versus a +3,514,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -2,347,000 barrels versus a -293,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -2,385,800 barrels versus a -4,008,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +1.2% versus unch. prior.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Collins speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (RYN) investor day, (AAPL) general meeting, (LPX) investor day, (DE) annual meeting, BofA Ag/Materials Conference, Susquehanna Tech Conference and the BMO Metals/Mining/Critical Minerals Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +6.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.0 -1.1
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 59.0% of Issues Advancing, 38.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .69 -31.7%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$59.4M
  
• 138 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
• 60.8% (+2.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 66.0 -1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.8 +1.4%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 140.2 +.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,365.1 -.19%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 76.0 (Extreme Greed) -1.0
• 1-Day Vix 8.4 -14.8%
  
• Vix 13.6 -1.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .97 unch.

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.75 +2.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 65.0 +1.5 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 115.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.1 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 73.2 +2.0%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.3 +.34%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.18%

• S&P 500 futures -.1%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.17%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Diminishing Fed Rate Cut Hopes, Technical Selling, Utility/Gambling Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.8 +.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .32 -32.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 72.1 -.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 176.9 +.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.3 -1.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 16.2 -1.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 158.0 +2.0
  

• Total Put/Call .94 -1.0%

• NYSE Arms .72 -39.5% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$115.6M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.2 +1.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 295.69 +.29%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 265 +11
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.98 +1.11% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 206.7 +.18%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 145.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.5 +.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 167.35 +.48%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 118.6 -.44%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 -.04%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -14.0 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 10.5 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.25 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 159.0 +5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 825.0 -11.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 66.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.2 -.1%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.41% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.1 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 24.0 euros/megawatt-hour +4.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 42.2 -1.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 44.7 +2.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.8 -1.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(453 of 500 reporting) +7.1% +.3 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 247.28 +.20:  Growth Rate +10.9% -1.0 percentage point, P/E 20.6 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.84% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +57.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 314.18 +1.03: Growth Rate +47.3% +.5 percentage point, P/E 31.9 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.14 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .94 +3.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -44.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.9% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 52.2% +1.6 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.11% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 83.9%(+7.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 51.4%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +182 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -23 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +52 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Utilities -2.1% 2) Gold & Silver -2.0% 3) Regional Banks -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SQ, PODD, TMDX, DOCN, GOOG, TFX, MGPI and SGRY
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MTUM 2) WDAY 3) DOCN 4) FND 5) KDP
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LUNR 2) FFIE 3) NOVA 4) FDP 5) BNTX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.7%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Digital Health +2.3% 2) Disk Drives +2.1% 3) Cyber Security +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• KRYS, ROOT, MARA, RCM, ALT, SKYT, RIOT, CLSK, ITRI, CLDX, WEAV, FRPT, SNBR, LI, SKYT, MSTR, HCP, AMR, ELF, METC, VRT, ARM, FYBR, LMND, PANW, ALVO, PPC, VICR, RIVN, DFH, HOOD, DPZ, FLNC, NU, MU, MNDY, IOVA, ACMR, DELL, PBPB, ALXO and EVER
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DPZ 2) FIS 3) RBA 4) CPRT 5) GT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) KRYS 2) AGTI 3) RCM 4) ALT 5) FRPT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume