Friday, March 19, 2004

Friday Close

S&P 500 1,109.78 -1.12%
NASDAQ 1,940.47 -1.12%

Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +3.97%
Broadcasting +.15%
Computer Service +.01%

Lagging Sectors
Disk Drive -1.97%
Oil Service -2.29%
Semis -3.60%

Crude Oil 38.08 +.40%
Natural Gas 5.58 -.87%
Gold 412.70 +.34%
Base Metals 113.07 +.31%
U.S. Dollar 88.13 +.56%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.77% +.45%
VIX 19.15 +3.35%
Put/Call .80 1.02 +24.39%
NYSE Arms 2.03 +93.33%

After-hours Movers
None of note.

Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on PAYX. GS reiterates Outperform on X. GS reiterates Outperform on CSCO on recent pullback saying 3 recent data points suggest business is tracking at or above estimates and they see upside later in the year as the IT buying cycle continues to strengthen.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks fell today as morning weakness in Semis spread to the rest of the market by later afternoon. Terrorism fears ahead of the weekend also contributed to the drop. Metal and mining stocks advanced after Nucor Corp.(NUE), the largest U.S. maker of steel using recycled metal, boosted its profit forecast as it passed on to customers the higher cost of scrap, which has soared in the past year on demand from China. Profit for Nucor's fiscal first quarter will be .80-1.00 a share, higher than its previous forecast of .40-.60 cents.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio was up today, notwithstanding its 100% net long exposure, as a few of my longs were up substantially and my shorts declined. I rotated out of some tech on the afternoon breakdown in the Morgan Stanley High-tech Index and into a few new cyclical longs, leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. I am anticipating at least a short-term bounce early next week barring any major weekend terror acts.

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