Monday, March 08, 2004

Monday Close

S&P 500 1,147.21 -.83%
NASDAQ 2,008.78 -1.90%

Leading Sectors
Fashion +.39%
Gaming +.19%
Energy +.18%

Lagging Sectors
Networking -2.30%
Disk Drives -3.04%
Semis -3.76%

Crude Oil 36.43 -.38%
Natural Gas 5.39 -.09%
Gold 402.30 +.35%
Base Metals 108.99 -.80%
U.S. Dollar 87.90 -.31%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.77% -1.96%
VIX 15.79 +9.05%
Put/Call .80 +2.56%
NYSE Arms 1.71 +24.82%

After-hours Movers
CYMI +4.36% after boosting 1Q guidance.
TSRA +7.57% after boosting 1Q and 04 guidance and filing secondary.
DIGL +86.8% after announcing that Telecom Italia selected their Network Info. Computer for their Optical Transport Network deployment and testing.
CNXS -19.46% after cutting 4Q forecast.

Goldman Sachs said TRB is one of their top sector picks. GS said TRB's help-wanted revenues posted a gain in the mid-teens in Feb. vs. Jan.'s 4% Y/Y increase. This represents the company's best help-wanted performance in 4 years. GS reiterating Outperform on KO. Finally, Goldman reiterating Underperform on FRNT and cutting estimates. is reporting that CSCO quarter tracking very well. The's Cramer says analysts will likely raise PFE numbers a lot on news that Liptor, taken in large doses, can prevent heart attacks. The is also saying that SUNW is the big loser in the recent tech spending surveys.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks declined Monday as weakness in semiconductors spread to the rest of tech and then to the entire market. After the close, Texas Instruments(TXN) raised the mid-point of it 1Q sales guidance and boosted it earnings outlook, citing broad-based strength in its chip offerings. TXN's CEO Slaymaker said visibility seems to be improving with increasing backlog. He also said chip prices continue to firm. Slaymaker suggested there is a great deal of room for upside, given prices are still 50% lower than in 2000. Goldman Sachs says the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 14% of the demand for tech products, is forecasted to increase capex by 16% this year vs. a decline of 13% last year. Microsoft told the Justice Dept. that it has no immediate plans to compete with Oracle in selling business software, Reuters reported. Martha Stewart will leave MSO board and the company may change its name, CNN says. Mark McClellan, picked by President Bush to lead the biggest expansion in Medicare in 40 years, said he would help Congress craft a plan to allow Americans to buy cheaper medicines from other countries. Reliant Resources said it was notified that federal prosecutors will seek a criminal indictment against a subsidiary for shutting down Cali. power plants in 2000 to boost prices. AmSouth Bancorp said it is under investigation by the U.S. Attorney in Miss. because of an alleged "fraudulent note scheme," the company said in a regulatory filing.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio was down today as my technology positions declined. I sold quite a few of these into the weaknesses, anticipating further declines in the sector. The Portfolio is now 50% net long. Specifically, the semiconductor index led the way on the down-side, breaking down again technically as well. It appears the SOX may test its 200 day m.a. As fundamentals continue to improve and valuations fall, this sub-sector of technology should provide tremendous profits later in the year.

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