Monday, March 22, 2004

Monday Watch

Earnings Announcements

DCI 2-for-1

Economic Data
None of note.

Weekend Recommendations
Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street had featured guests that were positive on AXP, TRV, SPLS, CMCSK, XOM, FDC, LXK, DEO,MCY,PRV, LPNT and CPWM. Forbes on Fox had guests that were positive on BUD, MDT,HIBB, DKS, NKE and FL. Bulls and Bears had guests that were positive on OMM, ALVR, ING, OSTK, mixed on FAF, NT, AZO and negative on Airlines. Cashin' In had guests that were positive on LLL, PAL and mixed on GS, SIRI and MOT. Wall Street Week had guests that were positive on SYNM, FCEL, PLUG, AES, RRI, DPL, WTR, PNR and CUNO. Goldman Sachs says Airline Index has dropped 25% in six weeks and prices are below 9/11 lows. GS thinks top-line growth will accelerate in spring and any sign of a continuation of the profit recovery could result in dramatic outperformance, favorites are ALK, AMR and CAL. Barron's has positive columns on IDG, NSSC, MDT, BBH and SNE. It has negative pieces on the AAPL, the overall market and the U.S. dollar.

Weekend News
Iraq plans to boost crude oil production by 720,000 barrels a day to 2.6 million barrels a day this month. Some Syrians are openly questioning their government and challenging state oppression after watching the overthrow of Saddam Hussein across the border in Iraq, the NY Times reported. Cholesterol reduction and lowering blood pressure may be more effective at preventing heart attacks than medical procedures, the NY Times reported. Yahoo! Inc.'s revenue from its search engine is expected to exceed $3B this year, up from $400M in 2000, the NY Times reported. Taiwan President Chen Shuibian won election to a second term a day after he was shot. Nationalist Party leader Lien Chan, who lost by a quarter of a percentage point, said he will seek to overturn the poll. Lien said the shooting incident looked suspicious and had affected the outcome. Taiwan protestors demanding a recount in Saturday's election blocked a main Taipei boulevard for a second day, prompting a 6.7% decline in the TWSE Index, its worst decline in eight years. China put its army on alert on concern about the political crisis in nearby Taiwan, the South China Morning Post said. Al-Qaeda bought nuclear suitcase bombs on the black market from disgruntled Russian scientists, reported the Sydney Morning Herald. Pakistan's army halted an offensive against a force of suspected al-Qaeda and Taliban supporters to allow tribal leaders to negotiate a surrender, the military said. Rumors continue to swirl regarding al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda's number 2 man, without confirmation regarding his whereabouts. 25% of all retail shopping will be done over the internet within five years compared to 4.2% last year, the Financial Times reported.

Late-Night Trading
Asian indices are mostly lower, with Taiwan's TWSE Index falling substantially. Losses range from -1.0% to -2.0%. Taiwan is down 6.7%.
S&P 500 indicated -.10%.
NASDAQ indicated -.14%.

BOTTOM LINE: Weakness in Asia will likely result in morning losses for U.S. stocks. I will closely monitor the breadth and volume readings on any gap down open. I will not sell into any substantial weakness in the morning. However, I will make a decision later in the day on whether or not to cut market exposure substantially. The Portfolio is currently 100% net long.

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