Monday, February 07, 2005

Monday Close

S&P 500 1,201.72 -.11%
Dow 10,715.76 unch.
NASDAQ 2,082.03 -.22%
Russell 2000 636.62 -.13%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,839.19 -.12%
S&P Barra Growth 577.09 -.19%
S&P Barra Value 620.33 -.03%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 591.37 -.11%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 761.-.15%
Morgan Stanley Technology 475.84 +.01%
Transports 3,602.13 +.12%
Utilities 351.81 -.28%
Put/Call .72 -1.37%
NYSE Arms 1.23 +25.51%
Volatility(VIX) 11.73 +4.64%
ISE Sentiment 199.00 +48.51%
US Dollar 85.12 +.87%
CRB 281.21 -.02%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 45.26 -.04%
Unleaded Gasoline 121.29 +.06%
Natural Gas 5.98 +.27%
Heating Oil 123.10 +.03%
Gold 414.60 -.19%
Base Metals 120.17 -.02%
Copper 138.80 -.04%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.05% -.62%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +2.13%
Defense +.93%
Gaming +.78%

Lagging Sectors
Wireless -.97%
Oil Service -1.82%
HMOs -1.91%

After-hours Movers
SINA -21.0% after beating 4Q estimates and lowering 1Q guidance.
CUTR +12.37% after substantially beating 4Q estimates and raising 1Q outlook.
BOBJ +11.64% after beating 4Q estimates and raising 1Q outlook.
PDLI -6.02% after disappointing 05 guidance.
SNDA -5.79% on SINA report.
EDS -6.42% after beating 4Q estimates and lowering 1Q/05 guidance.
NTES -7.58% on SINA report.

Detailed Market Summary
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
NASDAQ 100 After-hours Indicator
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote

Afternoon Recommendations
-Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on HOT, AMLN, PFE and AAP.

After-hours News
US stocks finished slightly lower today as worries over future earnings growth more than offset falling interest rates and energy prices. After the close, Skype Technologies SA, which offers free software for making Internet voice calls, will join with Hutchinson Global Communications to promote Internet telephone services in Hong Kong, Bloomberg reported. US consumer borrowing increased less than expected in December after the Fed raised interest rates five times in the last half of 2004, Bloomberg reported. IBM, Sony and Toshiba released the details of a new chip that’s faster than Intel’s personal-computer processors and seeks to capture sales in the home entertainment market, Bloomberg reported. Sprint Corp. may sell some cellular phone towers to Global Signal for about $1.2 billion to raise cash that could be used for network upgrades, Bloomberg said. Ex-WorldCom finance chief Scott Sullivan implicated his old boss, Bernard Ebbers, in the $11 billion fraud that drove the company into bankruptcy, testifying that they and other officials falsified financial statements, Bloomberg said. President Bush’s job approval rating rose to its highest level in 13 months, following his second inauguration, the State of the Union address and elections in Iraq, according to a poll by CNN, USA Today and the Gallup Organization. Primedia, a specialist magazine publisher, is seeking to sell the Web site, the Daily Deal reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly higher today on gains in my alternative energy, entertainment, telecom longs and oil service shorts. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 125% net long. The tone of the market improved modestly into the afternoon. However, volume was light and measures of investor anxiety were mixed. Today’s action appeared to be a healthy consolidation after recent gains. I continue to expect crude oil to head to around the $35-$40/bbl. level over the next few months and energy-related stocks to underperform over the near-term. However, I do not expect a collapse in oil prices and expect these stocks to become better intermediate-term investments later this year.

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