Tuesday, February 15, 2005

Tuesday Close

S&P 500 1,210.12 +.33%
Dow 10,837.32 +.43%
NASDAQ 2,089.21 +.30%
Russell 2000 634.94 -.01%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,911.18 +.27%
S&P Barra Growth 580.82 +.38%
S&P Barra Value 625.00 +.28%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 592.97 +.15%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 767.39 +.34%
Morgan Stanley Technology 478.42 +.68%
Transports 3,615.16 +.72%
Utilities 353.88 -.54%
Put/Call .78 -10.34%
NYSE Arms .77 -25.96%
Volatility(VIX) 11.27 -2.17%
ISE Sentiment 174.00 -10.77%
US Dollar 83.59 -.44%
CRB 289.33 +.51%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 47.26 unch.
Unleaded Gasoline 125.41 -.18%
Natural Gas 6.19 +.24%
Heating Oil 129.30 +.13%
Gold 426.80 -.12%
Base Metals 123.27 +.19%
Copper 145.45 -.27%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.09% +.66%

Leading Sectors
Gaming +2.08%
Computer Hardware +1.89%
Disk Drives +1.74%

Lagging Sectors
Iron/Steel -.37%
I-Banks -.47%
Utilities -.54%

After-hours Movers
ADBL -32.7% after missing 4Q revenue estimates, saying it expects higher costs and raising 05 revenue guidance.
NTAP -11.8% after beating 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q revenue guidance.
GPRO +3.73% after announcing that it has signed a supply and purchase agreement with F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd. and its affiliate Roche Molecular Systems.
INTL +4.21% after missing 4Q estimates slightly, announcing a $1.00/share special dividend and stock buyback of $75M.
PLAB +8.19% after beating 1Q estimates.
CSCD +4.26% after beating 4Q estimates, lowering 1Q guidance range and raising 1Q revenue guidance range.
LF -13.22% after substantially missing 4Q estimates and saying COO resigned.
EYET -7.36% after missing 4Q estimates and lowering 05 outlook.

Detailed Market Summary
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
NASDAQ 100 After-hours Indicator
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote

Afternoon Recommendations
-Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on TYC, UNM and SAP. Reiterated Underperform on NAV.
-JP Morgan: Cut VAL to Underweight.

After-hours News
US stocks finished modestly higher today on gains in technology and gaming stocks. After the close, the FCC is leaning toward making AT&T pay certain fees over prepaid calling cards it has sold since 1999, Reuters reported. General Dynamics’ contract with the US Navy for the Multi-Purpose Processor submarine program more than doubled in value to $88.6 million with the addition of engineering and technical services, Bloomberg reported. A 15-year-old boy who said Pfizer’s Zoloft antidepressant drove him to fatally shoot his grandparents was found guilty of murder and sentenced to 30 years in prison, the AP reported. An Indonesian doctor has retracted claims that Newmont Mining harmed the health of villagers near its Minashasa gold mine, Dow Jones reported. Russia told N.Korea it should join the six-nation forum discussing dismantling N.Korea’s nuclear program as soon as possible, Interfax reported. Home Depot plans to create 20,000 new US jobs and recruit Hispanic, bilingual workers to fill them, CNN reported. Apple Computer may increase its purchases from Taiwan suppliers this year by a quarter to $5 billion as it boosts sales, the Commercial Times reported. Applied Materials said first quarter profit more than tripled, Bloomberg said. The seven-year-old Kyoto Protocol comes into force today, binding 35 nations and the European Union to cut their emissions of greenhouse gases, Bloomberg said. The yen fell from a one-week high against the US dollar as a report showed Japan’s economy fell into recession after it shrank in the final quarter of 2004, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my internet and software longs. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market improved slightly into the close as the advance/decline line finished nearly unchanged, sector performance was modestly positive and technology stocks outperformed. On the negative side, small-caps and interest-rate sensitive sectors underperformed and measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower. I continue to expect US stocks to move modestly higher this week on more constructive comments from Greenspan, strong earnings reports, better fund inflows and short-covering. I will increase the Portfolio’s market exposure on a clear break above the 2100 level on the Nasdaq.

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