Thursday, February 10, 2005

Thursday Close

S&P 500 1,197.01 +.42%
Dow 10,749.61 +.80%
NASDAQ 2,053.10 +.03%
Russell 2000 626.81 +.18%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,779.42 +.38%
S&P Barra Growth 573.84 +.40%
S&P Barra Value 618.95 +.44%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 588.23 +.25%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 759.77 +.54%
Morgan Stanley Technology 467.72 -.24%
Transports 3,567.05 -.12%
Utilities 353.20 +.38%
Put/Call .94 +1.08%
NYSE Arms .87 -45.28%
Volatility(VIX) 11.51 -4.08%
ISE Sentiment 129.00 -.77%
US Dollar 84.54 -.44%
CRB 285.27 +1.57%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 46.95 -.32%
Unleaded Gasoline 128.84 -.50%
Natural Gas 6.20 +.62%
Heating Oil 131.44 -.52%
Gold 418.80 +.02%
Base Metals 122.07 +1.64%
Copper 142.50 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.08% +2.77%

Leading Sectors
Oil Service +3.05%
Energy +2.59%
Commodity +2.24%

Lagging Sectors
Disk Drives -.70%
Airlines -.98%
Software -1.01%

After-hours Movers
MKSI ++6.31% after substantially beating 4Q estimates and raising 1Q outlook.
NVTL +8.89% after meeting 4Q estimates.
DATA +14.33% after beating 4Q estimates.
CKCM -14.0% on profit-taking after beating 4Q estimates.
CSTR -13.52% after meeting 4Q estimates and lowering 1Q guidance.
SHRP -12.93% after substantially lowering 1Q and 05 guidance.

Detailed Market Summary
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
NASDAQ 100 After-hours Indicator
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote

Afternoon Recommendations
-Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Underperform on CNA and CVC.

After-hours News
US stocks finished modestly higher today, spurred by gains in commodity-related stocks. The yield on the US 10-year T-note may drop as low as 3.9%, said Michael Krauss, who makes forecasts based on past trading patterns for JP Morgan. The Chinese and Japanese central banks will probably increase their holdings of dollars as they seek to counter advances in their currencies, said David Hale, chairman of Hale Advisors. Morgan Stanley raised its forecasts for the US dollar against the euro, yen, British pound and Australian dollar, Bloomberg reported. Dell CFO Schneider told financial news network CNBC the company wants to boost annual sales to $80 billion, Bloomberg reported. BHP Billiton said it will complete by the end of March a study on expanding the capacity of its iron ore unit in Western Australia by 23% to 145M tons a year, the Wall Street Journal said. The NHL said it likely would cancel its season next week after a four-hour meeting with the players’ union today in Toronto failed to produce any progress toward a new contract, Bloomberg said. The US Senate approved legislation to move most class-action lawsuits seeking more than $5 million in damages from state to federal courts, Bloomberg reported. Dell said that profit fell 11% in the fourth quarter because of tax costs and that first-quarter sales may not meet estimates, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower today on losses in my oil service shorts and gaming longs. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 25% net long. The tone of the market improved modestly into the close, however it remained weak considering gains in the Dow. The advance/decline line was mixed, volume rose, a number of sectors finished lower and gains were mostly confined to commodity-related stocks. Technology stocks underperformed throughout the day and are falling slightly in after-hours trading on Dell’s report. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed on the day. I plan to maintain a relatively conservative market stance in the near-term.

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