Wednesday, August 31, 2005

Stocks Finish Higher as Energy Prices Fall Sharply from Highs and Fed "pause" Talk Increases

Indices
S&P 500 1,220.33 +.99%
DJIA 10,481.60 +.66%
NASDAQ 2,152.09 +1.05%
Russell 2000 666.51 +1.95%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,199.09 +1.13%
S&P Barra Growth 584.38 +.95%
S&P Barra Value 631.65 +1.03%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 581.96 +.70%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 736.16 +.84%
Morgan Stanley Technology 496.38 +.82%
Transports 3,680.86 +.89%
Utilities 407.46 +1.06%
Put/Call .80 -22.33%
NYSE Arms .79 -28.84%
Volatility(VIX) 12.60 -7.69%
ISE Sentiment 134.00 -6.94%
US Dollar 87.58 -.87%
CRB 329.42 -.53%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 68.90 -.06%
Unleaded Gasoline 261.45 +5.64%
Natural Gas 11.60 +1.31%
Heating Oil 205.30 -1.10%
Gold 439.20 +.25%
Base Metals 129.38 -.74%
Copper 162.30 +.19%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.01 -1.86%

Leading Sectors
Oil Tankers +4.38%
Homebuilders +3.96%
Oil Service +3.57%

Lagging Sectors
Insurance +.12%
Hospitals -.04%
Gaming -.25%

Evening Review
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Economic Calendar
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PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- None of note

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- IAC/InterativeCorp, the tv and Internet services company owned by Barry Diller, plans to enter the US real-estate brokerage business next year to expand beyond offering property and mortgage listings on Web sites.
- Hurricane Katrina may harm the US economy more than initially estimated, economists said.
- President Bush said it “will take years” for the US Gulf Coast to recover from Hurricane Katrina and pledged the full resources of the federal government to aiding the storm-ravaged region.
- US Treasuries surged after an index showed Chicago-area manufacturing contracted in August for the first time since 2003 and economists increased worries over the effects of the hurricane.

Cnet News.com:
- Google is buying ad pages in technology publications including PC Magazine and Maximum PC and reselling the space to its online ad clients.

AP:
- New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagins said Hurricane Katrina may have killed hundreds, and possibly thousands, of people in the city.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower today on losses in my Oil Tanker shorts and Internet longs. I covered a few shorts and added RUTH long in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. I am using an $18 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market was positive today as the advance/decline line finished substantially higher, almost every sector rose and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Overall, today’s market action was very positive. Today’s rally was mainly a function of investors’ belief that the Fed may pause for awhile as a result of the spike in gas prices and devastation in the Gulf. While near-term stocks may move higher, another test of the recent lows is likely as more economic data disappoints over the coming weeks. I believe oil has finally seen its highs for the year and will begin an accelerated move downwards over the next few weeks. From now on, any gains in gasoline prices will likely be viewed as a negative for crude prices.

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