Monday, August 29, 2005

Stocks Ignoring Hurricane Katrina Mid-day, Moving Higher

Indices
S&P 500 1,211.45 +.53%
DJIA 10,456.76 +.57%
NASDAQ 2,134.91 +.69%
Russell 2000 652.97 +.67%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,084.65 +.53%
S&P Barra Growth 581.15 +.66%
S&P Barra Value 626.15 +.42%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 581.05 +.54%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 731.66 +.22%
Morgan Stanley Technology 493.68 +.53%
Transports 3,681.41 +.38%
Utilities 402.55 +.66%
Put/Call 1.16 -1.69%
NYSE Arms .72 -57.10%
Volatility(VIX) 13.47 -1.97%
ISE Sentiment 138.00 -19.77%
US Dollar 88.20 +.39%
CRB 323.13 +1.90%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 67.00 +1.32%
Unleaded Gasoline 206.00 +6.91%
Natural Gas 10.78 +10.29%
Heating Oil 190.50 +3.72%
Gold 441.70 -.09%
Base Metals 129.99 unch.
Copper 162.50 -1.10%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.16% -.41%

Leading Sectors
Oil Tankers +3.57%
Steel +2.67%
Gold & Silver +1.75%

Lagging Sectors
REITs -.12%
Restaurants -.49%
Airlines -1.15%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Internet, Retail, Semiconductor and Computer longs. I added a few new longs this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. One of my new longs is AMR Corp.(AMR) and I am using a $13 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is modestly higher, most sectors are higher and volume is very light. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower. Today’s overall market action is very positive given the damage from the hurricane. As I have surmised many times, the price of oil has substantially passed levels justified by the underlying fundamentals, as a speculative fervor not seen since the Internet bubble took over the commodity and related securities. The most massive storm the U.S. has seen in years just hit the area most vulnerable to energy supply disruptions and oil is up a $1.12 cents to $67.25, below the record $68 per barrel, which was seen just a few days ago. This may be the beginning of the "sell the news" phenomenon that I had anticipated as we reached a peak in hurricane and terrorism fears. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher from current levels into the close on short-covering and bargain hunting.

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