Tuesday, October 18, 2005

Stocks Finish Lower as Energy Shares Plunge after Exxon Mobil Block Trade

Indices
S&P 500 1,178.14 -1.0%
DJIA 10,285.26 -.61%
NASDAQ 2,056.00 -.69%
Russell 2000 625.36 -1.26%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,734.45 -1.05%
S&P Barra Growth 567.46 -.93%
S&P Barra Value 606.50 -1.08%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 578.16 -.81%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 688.63 -.96%
Morgan Stanley Technology 491.35 -.41%
Transports 3,589.04 -1.51%
Utilities 392.14 -2.09%
Put/Call .94 +4.44%
NYSE Arms 1.61 +150.73%
Volatility(VIX) 15.33 +4.50%
ISE Sentiment 167.00 +15.97%
US Dollar 90.29 +.55%
CRB 329.18 -.98%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 62.82 -.60%
Unleaded Gasoline 172.05 -.85%
Natural Gas 13.30 -.86%
Heating Oil 191.84 -.82%
Gold 474.10 -.11%
Base Metals 135.07 -.27%
Copper 182.45 -.05%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.47% -.40%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +.96%
Broadcasting +.57%
Hospitals -.02%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Service -4.48%
Energy -4.54%
Oil Tankers -4.99%

Evening Review
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In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on GD, GILD, YHOO and STZ.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The US government has asked United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan to put forward specific proposals by the middle of November to overhaul the scandal-tarnished management of the world body.
- Calpine bonds and shares fell on speculation it is considering default after a report by the NY Post that the power company hired bankruptcy and restructuring lawyers from Kirkland & Ellis LLP.
- The Federal Reserve probably needs to keep raising its benchmark interest rate, and the level at which it neither spurts nor restrains the economy may be as high as 5.5%, San Francisco Fed Bank Janet Yellen said.
- President Bush pledged to step up efforts to catch and expel people illegally entering the US and said he will work with Congress to create a better program allowing workers to enter they country legally for employment.
- Constellation Brands, the world’s largest winemaker, made a hostile bid of about $900 million for Canadian wine producer Vincor International after the company refused to negotiate a sale.
- The Chicago Board of Trade raised $172 million in an IPO offering today, more than expected, as investors sought a stake in the global $1,100 trillion futures industry.
- About $1.4 billion of Exxon Mobil shares were sold at a discount, resulting in the second-largest block trade by value on the NYSE this year. The transaction led to the second-busiest day for Exxon’s stock since at least 1980 and sent energy-related stocks reeling.
- Crude oil and natural gas fell, and gasoline lunged to the lowest in almost three months on forecasts showing that Hurricane Wilma will miss storm-battered production platforms off the Louisiana and Texas coasts.
- 15 of 20 US oil refineries near the Gulf of Mexico, including Exxon Mobil’s plant in Beaumont, Texas, have resumed operations after shutting in August and September for Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Unleaded Gas futures have declined 41% since September highs even with extensive refinery shut-ins.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Steel shorts and Energy-related shorts. I added to existing shorts in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished substantially lower, almost every sector fell and volume was below average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the close. Overall, today’s market action was mildly negative as the major averages and breadth finished weaker even with a decline in long-term rates, falling energy prices and mostly strong earnings reports. The main positive takeaway from today's action was that losses in the major averages weren't worse given the 4%+ declines in energy-related stocks. Tech stocks outperformed throughout the day. I continue to believe the weakness in the energy complex will be viewed as hugely positive over the coming months.

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