Monday, October 24, 2005

Stocks Higher Mid-day on Choice of Bernanke as Next Fed Chairman

Indices
S&P 500 1,193.41 +1.17%
DJIA 10,331.35 +1.14%
NASDAQ 2,103.02 +1.0%
Russell 2000 642.23 +1.50%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,915.14 +1.21%
S&P Barra Growth 573.84 +.95%
S&P Barra Value 615.44 +1.39%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 583.97 +1.10%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 699.99 +1.92%
Morgan Stanley Technology 502.23 +.92%
Transports 3,715.24 +2.53%
Utilities 393.47 +1.76%
Put/Call .77 -23.0%
NYSE Arms .62 -52.18%
Volatility(VIX) 15.39 -4.59%
ISE Sentiment 206.00 +47.14%
US Dollar 89.94 -.41%
CRB 320.23 -.71%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 60.10 -.87%
Unleaded Gasoline 160.00 -2.43%
Natural Gas 12.90 +.22%
Heating Oil 181.75 -2.63%
Gold 468.60 -.09%
Base Metals 131.97 +.54%
Copper 177.80 -.84%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.45% +1.59%

Leading Sectors %
Steel +4.18%
Coal +3.84%
Oil Tankers +3.43%

Lagging Sectors
Disk Drives +.26%
HMOs +.26%
Hospitals -1.04%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is substantially higher mid-day on gains in my Internet longs, Medical longs, Airline longs and Retail longs. I added to my NTES and BRCM longs and existing shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, sector performance is positive and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are lower. Today’s overall market action is positive considering the rise in long-term rates. In my opinion, Ben Bernanke is the best choice for the position of next Fed Chairman. He is one of the few candidates that understands the extent of global deflationary forces on the US economy. I expect these forces to reassert themselves during the next economic slowdown. I expect US stocks to trade mixed from current levels into the close as short-covering offsets profit-taking.

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