Monday, November 28, 2005

Indices
S&P 500 1,260.11 -.64%
DJIA 10,902.23 -.27%
NASDAQ 2,244.07 -.83%
Russell 2000 672.88 -1.56%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,576.95 -.78%
S&P Barra Growth 602.62 -.63%
S&P Barra Value 653.18 -.65%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 592.98 -.45%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 773.22 -.41%
Morgan Stanley Technology 533.37 -.50%
Transports 4,130.18 -1.17%
Utilities 403.12 -.22%
Put/Call 1.02 +14.61%
NYSE Arms 1.20 +34.25%
Volatility(VIX) 11.87 +9.10%
ISE Sentiment 169.00 -47.35%
US Dollar 90.96 -1.17%
CRB 312.74 -.61%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.35 -2.32%
Unleaded Gasoline 141.90 -2.65%
Natural Gas 11.40 -1.89%
Heating Oil 163.50 -3.21%
Gold 498.50 +1.14%
Base Metals 144.20 +.03%
Copper 190.30 +2.67%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.40% -.57%

Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +1.53%
Telecom +.80%
Gold & Silver +.57%

Lagging Sectors
Coal -2.71%
Energy -2.95%
Oil Service -3.25%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower mid-day on losses in my Internet longs, Medical longs, Semi longs and Retail longs. I added IWM and QQQQ shorts and took profits in a few longs this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, most sectors are falling and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are higher. Overall, today’s market action is slightly negative considering recent gains and the fall in oil and long-term rates. Over the weekend, Newmont Mining's (NEM) president said he sees gold rising to more than $1,000 an ounce in 5-7 years. This reminds me of Valero's (VLO) prediction a few months ago that a "new era for energy pricing" was at hand. Of course, most still believe this prediction. I suspect a sustained move in oil below $50 will break this mentality. Gold will follow oil lower over the intermediate term, in my opinion. I expect US stocks to trade mixed from current levels into the close as short-covering, lower energy prices and declining long-term rates offset profit-taking and housing worries.

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