Tuesday, November 22, 2005

Stocks Finish at Session Highs as Fed Hints at "Pause"

Indices
S&P 500 1,261.23 +.51%
DJIA 10,871.43 +.47%
NASDAQ 2,253.56 +.53%
Russell 2000 682.55 +.53%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,609.54 +.53%
S&P Barra Growth 603.88 +.40%
S&P Barra Value 652.97 +.61%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 593.78 +.03%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 773.08 +.67%
Morgan Stanley Technology 531.58 +.69%
Transports 4,180.19 +.57%
Utilities 398.51 +.21%
Put/Call .97 +22.78%
NYSE Arms .73 -7.35%
Volatility(VIX) 10.60 -2.03%
ISE Sentiment 176.00 -22.12%
US Dollar 91.50 -.58%
CRB 315.50 +.60%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 59.00 +.27%
Unleaded Gasoline 148.65 -.07%
Natural Gas 11.75 +1.21%
Heating Oil 174.60 +.57%
Gold 494.80 +.39%
Base Metals 140.15 -1.73%
Copper 184.75 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.42% -.74%

Leading Sectors
Oil Service +2.20%
Disk Drives +2.18%
Homebuilders +1.85%

Lagging Sectors
Computer Services -.20%
Steel -.95%
Airlines -2.09%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on ENH, UVN and COH.
- Reiterated Underperform on GCO, SBSA and ROIAK.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Ahmed Omar Abu Ali, a US citizen accused of plotting with al-Qaeda terrorists, was found guilty on nine charges that included conspiracy to assassinate President Bush.
- Federal Reserve policy makers discussed the need “before long” to change their outlook for the benchmark US interest rate, with some expressing concern they might go too far, the minutes of their Nov. 1 meeting showed.
- US Treasuries rose after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting on interest rates showed the central bank is preparing to slow down the pace of interest rate increases.
- Microsoft’s new Xbox 360 video-game console began selling out at stores across the US, a boon for Chairman Bill Gate’s aim to wrest control of the $28.5 billion industry from Sony Corp.
- Travelers entering the US with fever and other flu-like symptoms would be reported by the airline or ship that brought them, under new rules proposed today, a US public-health official said.

Reuters:
- CBS Corp. is in talks with Google about making its video searchable and available on demand, citing CBS Chairman Leslie Moonves.

AP:
- New York Supreme Court Justice Laura Blackburne should be fired for helping a robbery suspect evade arrest by having him taken out a back door of her Queens courthouse, the state’s Commission on Judicial Conduct found.
- The University of Kansas’s religious studies department plans to offer a class next semester that labels intelligent design a myth. Intelligent design holds that nature is too complicated to have happened by chance alone and had to have been created by a higher being.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today on gains in my Internet longs, Retail longs, Medical longs, Semi longs and Homebuilding longs. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was positive today as the advance/decline line finished modestly higher, almost every sector rose and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Overall, today's market action was positive. It appears to me that P/E multiple expansion was at work today. The S&P 500's forward P/E is 16.45. To put this in perspective, an expansion back to a P/E of 20, with no earnings growth, would mean a 22% gain for the market from current levels.

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