Thursday, December 15, 2005

Stocks Finish Slightly Lower, Pressured by Commodity Shares

S&P 500 1,270.94 -.14%
DJIA 10,881.67 -.02%
NASDAQ 2,260.63 -.09%
Russell 2000 684.74 -.83%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,704.21 -.23%
S&P Barra Growth 608.42 +.07%
S&P Barra Value 658.11 -.34%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 597.18 -.20%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 787.26 -.04%
Morgan Stanley Technology 535.64 -.10%
Transports 4,145.77 +.71%
Utilities 417.89 +.29%
Put/Call .60 -10.45%
NYSE Arms .83 +6.41%
Volatility(VIX) 10.73 +2.39%
ISE Sentiment 218.00 -3.96%
US Dollar 90.01 +.20%
CRB 328.61 -.84%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 59.96 -.05%
Unleaded Gasoline 161.69 +.01%
Natural Gas 13.66 -.81%
Heating Oil 178.50 -.13%
Gold 503.90 unch.
Base Metals 150.33 -.15%
Copper 214.15 +.73%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.46% +.13%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +3.04%
Biotech +1.12%
Disk Drives +.95%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Service -.93%
Hospitals -.97%
Steel -1.37%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on SYMC and CRL.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
- Bonds of Calpine, last year’s largest issuer of junk-rated debt, dropped to an all-time low on speculation the company may be unable to make $146 million in interest payments due in the next month.
- Adobe Systems said fourth-quarter profit increased 38% on continued demand for new versions of its Photoshop and Illustrator programs.
- The US dollar rose the most in more than a week against the euro after a Treasury Department report showed foreigners increased purchases of US securities in October at a historic pace.
- Gold in NY fell, capping the largest three-day plunge in 20 months, after the Tokyo Commodities Exchange raised trading costs and measures of inflation declined.
- Crude oil, heating oil and natural gas all fell on speculation that milder weather in the Great Plains will move east by the end of the month, cutting heating-fuel consumption.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Technology longs and Commodity shorts. I added to my IWM and QQQQ shorts in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished lower, sector performance was mostly negative and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. The AAII percentage bulls fell to 46.15% this week from 49.47% the prior week; this reading is back to around average levels. The percentage bears rose to 22.12% from 18.95% the prior week; this is still at below-average levels. I expect bullish sentiment to fall modestly again next week. It is a big positive to see sentiment ebb while the S&P 500 hits a four-year high.

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