Friday, December 30, 2005

Stocks Lower Mid-day on Year-end Profit-taking and Rising Energy Prices

Indices
S&P 500 1,249.86 -.36%
DJIA 10,735.03 -.46%
NASDAQ 2,207.90 -.46%
Russell 2000 674.81 -.50%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,507.36%
S&P Barra Growth 597.02 -.37%
S&P Barra Value 647.48 -.46%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 592.46 -.62%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 785.55 -.57%
Morgan Stanley Technology 522.54 -.54%
Transports 4,208.48 -.77%
Utilities 404.65 -.48%
Put/Call .80 -11.11%
NYSE Arms 1.47 +22.79%
Volatility(VIX) 11.74 +1.12%
ISE Sentiment 162.00 -1.0%
US Dollar 91.22 +.13%
CRB 331.78 +.75%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.04%
Unleaded Gasoline 171.00 +3.49%
Natural Gas 11.22 +.02%
Heating Oil 172.80 +1.47%
Gold 519.50 +.39%
Base Metals 152.41 -.37%
Copper 203.30 -.61%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.38% +.81%

Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.74%
Energy +1.15%
Disk Drives +.53%

Lagging Sectors
Gold & Silver -1.01%
Restaurants -1.06%
HMOs -1.08%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower mid-day on losses in my Medical longs, Semi longs and Energy-related shorts. I exiting a long and added IWM and QQQQ shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are lower and volume is light. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Overall, today’s market action is negative considering recent losses and lack of year-end leadership. It looks as if the S&P 500 is going to finish the year with around a 5% total gain including dividends, short of my 10% projection. Next year has the potential to be much better. I will try and post a Year-End Scoreboard later this evening. I expect US stocks to trade higher from current levels into the close on short-covering and seasonal strength.

No comments: