Wednesday, December 14, 2005

Stocks Higher Mid-day on Falling Energy Prices and Lower Long-term Rates

Indices
S&P 500 1,273.64 +.49%
DJIA 10,888.56 +.60%
NASDAQ 2,265.03 unch.
Russell 2000 690.85 +.26%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,741.43 +.45%
S&P Barra Growth 643.87 N/A
S&P Barra Value 660.59 +.50%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 599.46 +.54%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 788.13 +.33%
Morgan Stanley Technology 536.97 +.11%
Transports 4,114.89 +.66%
Utilities 416.16 +.81%
Put/Call .67 +6.35%
NYSE Arms .74 +3.36%
Volatility(VIX) 10.43 -6.12%
ISE Sentiment 231.00 +36.69%
US Dollar 89.81%
CRB 331.44 -1.25%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 60.85 -.85%
Unleaded Gasoline 164.30 -.18%
Natural Gas 14.69 -4.47%
Heating Oil 184.50 +.46%
Gold 509.60 -2.77%
Base Metals 150.55 -1.85%
Copper 196.60 -2.99%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.44% -1.70%

Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +2.05%
Airlines +1.64%
Retail +1.25%

Lagging Sectors
Hospitals -.78%
Oil Tankers -.87%
Gold & Silver -2.32%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower mid-day on losses in my Medical longs and Computer longs. I added to my IWM and QQQQ shorts and then covered some, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is about even, most sectors are higher and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Overall, today’s market action is slightly negative considering the decline in long-term rates and energy prices. The S&P Supercomposite Restaurants Index is 2% higher over the last two days. It is at 316.09, very close to its all-time high of 317.34. This is more evidence that the consumer isn't weakening to any significant extent. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close on short-covering.

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