Sunday, February 12, 2006

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Finance ministers from the G-8 focused on how to lower oil prices and ensure their access to energy supplies as ways to insulate the world economy from high fuel costs.
- Nigeria was promised $25 million in aid from the US to combat Africa’s first reported outbreak of avian influenza in poultry.
- Israeli Prime Minister Sharon was taken into surgery after doctors discovered a life-threatening deterioration of his digestive tract.
- The US Northeast’s first major snowstorm descended on the region today, causing flight cancellations and power outages from Virginia to Massachusetts.
- US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the outrage in Muslim nations over cartoons depicting the prophet Muhammad might “spin out of control” unless the governments of those countries take steps to halt the violence.
- The US dollar may rise for a sixth straight week against the euro, the longest stretch since August 2000, as traders speculate on relative strength in the US versus other industrialized economies.
- Australia’s central bank lowered its forecast for underlying inflation and said rising exports and investment will fuel growth in the Asia-Pacific region’s fifth largest economy.
- Iran called on US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Denmark’s government to apologize for accusing Iran and Syria of fomenting Muslim anger over the publications of cartoons depicting the Prophet Muhammad.
- Crude oil is falling for a second day in NY on signs production will rise faster than demand this year, bolstering stockpiles.

Wall Street Journal:
- Merrill Lynch(MER) is in advanced talks to buy a “large” stake in BlackRock Inc. for $8 billion.

Washington Post:
- Vice President Cheney said a new tax analysis division in the Treasury Department will provide more evidence that tax cuts increase US revenue.

NY Times:
- US officials said Mexican criminal gangs have increased attacks on American border patrol agents who have steeped up attempts to check the flow of illegal immigrants and drugs.
- The US Justice Dept. has expanded its probe into whether any laws were broken when information about the government’s classified wiretapping program was leaked to the NY Times.

Corpus Christi Caller-Times:
- Vice President Cheney accidentally shot and injured his 78-year-old hunting partner while quail hunting in Texas yesterday.

AP:
- Lynn Swann, a former All-Pro wide receiver for the NFL’s Pittsburgh Steelers, was endorsed by Pennsylvania’s Republican Party as its candidate for governor.

Time Magazine:
- Google’s(GOOG) founders say they worry about rival Microsoft(MSFT) and prefer to seem “confused” rather than discuss the Internet search engine’s strategy.

Nielsen/Netratings:
- The internet search market grew 55% last year. Google’s(GOOG) share of that market rose to 48.8%, up 5.7 percentage points, while Yahoo’s(YHOO) fell .3 percentage points to 21.4%. MSN’s share declined to 10.9%, down 3.1 percentage points.

Financial Times:
- Amazon.com(AMZN) and Google(GOOG) are planning to challenge Apple Computer by offering a music-download service.
- BT Group Plc, Microsoft(MSFT) and Virgin Mobile Holdings Plc are set to start Europe’s first digital television service for mobile phones.
- Home Depot(HD) is in talks to buy a stake in Orient Home, which would market its entry into China’s $50 billion home-improvement market.
- Microsoft(MSFT) is to start its legal defense against the European Commission’s latest antitrust charges this week.
- Yahoo! has called Internet, media and communication companies to work together with the US government to combat Chinese censorship on the Internet, citing Michael Callahan, Yahoo’s General Consul.

Sunday Times:
- Exxon Mobil(XOM) plans to start drilling for natural gas off the west coast of Ireland.

AFP:
- The United Iraqi Alliance, the group that won the most seats in the December elections in Iraq, voted for incumbent Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari as their candidate for the same post in the new government.

Efe:
- Acciona SA, a Spanish construction company, plans to invest $262 million in a solar energy plant in Nevada.

Neuen Ruhr Zeitung:
- Libyan leader Colonel Muammar al-Qaddafi criticized Europe for spreading “hate” with cartoons of the prophet Muhammad.

Middle East Economic Digest:
- Saudi Arabia wants to begin exploration work in the Red Sea this year.
- Caterpillar Corp.(CAT) and Siemens AG are among companies bidding for a $30 million contract to help restart oil exports from northern Iraq to Syria.
- Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are seeking bids for a contract worth $400 million to further increase oil production from wells located in an area bordering the two Gulf states.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on (TYC).
- Had negative comments on (GOOG).

Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on (GILD), (DNA), (CEM), (CAL), (PFE), (ECL) and (SGMS).
- Reiterated Underperform on (UAUA).

Smith Barney:
- Reiterated Buy on (GOOG), target $490.

Night Trading
Asian indices are -1.25% to -.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.05%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.12%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
(A)/.30
(BBBB)/.26
(BOBE)/.25
(BRO)/.24
(CD)/.23
(FWRD)/.42
(HOC)/1.38
(MCY)/1.06
(SVM)/.10
(ELOS)/.46
(BER)/1.04

Upcoming Splits
- (EME) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
- None of note

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are lower, dragged down by commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rise later in the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

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