Monday, September 11, 2006

Stocks Finish Slightly Higher as Commodity Prices Continue to Plunge

Indices
S&P 1,299.54 +.05%
DJIA 11,396.84 +.04%
NASDAQ 2,173.25 +.34%
Russell 2000 707.57 -.14%
Wilshire 5000 12,973.19 -.03%
S&P Barra Growth 604.40 +.24%
S&P Barra Value 692.96 -.14%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 647.43 +.57%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 798.58 -1.06%
Morgan Stanley Technology 507.10 +.88%
Transports 4,229.16 +.81%
Utilities 431.73 -.55%
Put/Call 1.01 unch.
NYSE Arms 1.01 -10.60%
Volatility(VIX) 12.98 -1.37%
ISE Sentiment 95.0 -24.0%
US Dollar 85.91 -.06%
CRB 313.73 -2.08%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 65.47 -1.18%
Unleaded Gasoline 159.80 -.69%
Natural Gas 5.68 +.09%
Heating Oil 180.50 -2.07%
Gold 596.50 -.13%
Base Metals 229.17 -3.44%
Copper 340.50 -.38%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.79% +.50%

Leading Sectors
Semis +2.36%
Retail +1.83%
HMOs +1.48%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Service -4.18%
Steel -4.30%
Gold & Silver -7.04%

Evening Review
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In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
CSFB:
- Rated (ROC) and (NRF) Outperform.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US gasoline at the pump fell for a fifth week, dropping 10.9 cents to a nationwide average $2.62/gallon, a government report showed.
- Crude oil continued its biggest decline in 10 months and longest losing streak in 3 years on signs the world economy is slowing, and gold, copper, aluminum and silver tumbled.
- France is a target of Islamic terrorism even if the country opposed the US liberation of Iraq, said Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie on the fifth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks in the US.
- Texas Instruments(TXN) narrowed its third-quarter sales and profit forecasts as handset demand remains steady.
- Pride among Lebanese in surviving the war with Israel has given way to questioning why it all happened, with measures of blame heaped on Hezbollah, the Shiite Muslim militia that triggered the conflict.
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Poole said the US economy is “robust” as commercial construction picks up slack from a slowing housing market that may otherwise threaten the expansion.
- Latin American shares fell for a fifth day, led by Brazilian oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA, on concern that the end of a five-year global mania in commodities will curtail exports and profits.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Semi longs, Retail longs, Internet longs and Commodity shorts. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was positive today as the advance/decline line finished slightly lower, most sectors rose and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the close. Overall, today's market performance was bullish. While the major averages finished only slightly higher, the underlying action was quite positive. International stocks fell meaningfully and closed near session lows, yet U.S. shares hung firm in the face of significant declines in most commodity stocks. My intraday gauges of investor angst registered above-average readings throughout the day. A significantly positive change in the U.S. investment landscape is currently underway, in my opinion. However, I suspect it will take a few weeks before the changes become obvious.

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