Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Stocks Mixed into Final Hour on Bounce Higher in Oil

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Medical longs, Retail longs and Biotech longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is neutral as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, sector performance is mixed and volume is above average. Bloomberg just reported that commodity hedge funds fell for the fourth straight month in August and are now down 13.8% year-to-date, according to the Center of International Securities and Derivatives Markets. These declines came despite worries over war, inflation, U.S. dollar weakness and booming global growth. I suspect a large portion of the mountain of cash that has been deployed into these funds recently is very hot money. I expect another down-leg in most commodities will commence during the fourth quarter as funds raise cash to meet year-end redemptions. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering.

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