Wednesday, November 15, 2006

DJIA Makes Another All-Time High, Boosted by Merger Activity and Positive Economic Data

Indices
S&P 500 1,396.57 +.24%
DJIA 12,251.71 +.28%
NASDAQ 2,442.75 +.50%
Russell 2000 791.96 +.88%
Wilshire 5000 14,020.10 +.35%
S&P Barra Growth 648.75 +.41%
S&P Barra Value 745.58 +.08%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 674.63 +.47%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 874.59 +.33%
Morgan Stanley Technology 576.50 +.08%
Transports 4,830.43 +1.38%
Utilities 448.39 -.39%
Put/Call .80 -2.44%
NYSE Arms .79 -17.24%
Volatility(VIX) 10.31 -1.81%
ISE Sentiment 145.0 +7.41%
US Dollar 85.32 +.02%
CRB 310.85 +.78%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.75 +.81%
Unleaded Gasoline 157.95 +2.25%
Natural Gas 8.17 +2.46%
Heating Oil 169.30 +1.79%
Gold 623.30 -.08%
Base Metals 229.46 -3.05%
Copper 312.40 -.03
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.61% +1.12%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +5.24%
Oil Service +1.68%
Defense +1.31%

Lagging Sectors
Utilities -.39%
Papers -.63%
Telecom -1.19%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
- None of note

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Google(GOOG) will replace HCA(HCA) in the S&P 100. Peabody Energy(BTU) will replace HCA(HCA) in the S&P 500. Dick’s Sporting Goods(DKS) will replace Peabody Energy(BTU) in the S&P MidCap 400.
- Suncor Energy, the world’s largest oil-sands producer, said estimated annual capital spending on oil-sands projects will rise 43% as it proceeds with an expansion approved by Alberta’s regulators.
- AES Corp.(AES) challenged rival NRG Energy(NRG) in bidding to build a clean-coal power plant sought by NY Governor Pataki.
- Disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff told investigators that incoming Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid requested campaign donations from clients and agreed to help on Indian gambling issues. Some of Abramoff’s biggest clients before his downfall were casino-owning Indian tribes trying to prevent other tribes from opening new casinos with Congress’s help.
- The US warned citizens to “exercise caution” when traveling throughout Mexico, citing an increased risk of political violence before the country’s new president takes office Dec. 1.
- Applied Materials(AMAT) said fourth-quarter profit almost doubled on sales to memory-chip manufactures.
- GM(GM), seeking $10 billion this year from the sale of a stake in its finance unit, received an approval from federal regulators, avoiding a delay.
- The Washington Post will cut newsroom jobs for the first time in 25 years, illustrating the depth of the impact that declining ad sales and circulation is having on the newspaper industry.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Internet longs, Semi longs, Medical longs and Retail longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was positive today as the advance/decline line finished higher, most sectors rose and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Today's overall market action was bullish. Hedgefund.net is reporting that despite losses at Amaranth, the fall in oil prices and the fact that the average energy hedge fund fell 3.2% during the third quarter, total assets in energy hedge funds rose 4.3% to $73.8 billion. Moreover, recent filings show many hedge funds loaded up on energy-related equities as oil broke below $60. I sense that it is just assumed by most investors that oil can't head meaningfully lower from current levels. I continue to believe energy investors remain extraordinarily complacent and that energy prices anywhere near current levels are a function of historic speculation by investment funds and do not represent the underlying fundamentals. Oil continues to trade very poorly despite perceived bullish catalysts.

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