Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Positive Economic Data and Short-Covering

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Semi longs, Retail longs and Internet longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are rising and volume is above average. Last night, the Chinese-language Commercial Times reported that Hon Hai Precision Industry (HNHPF.PK) will be manufacturing 12 million Apple (AAPL) iPhones for delivery during the first half of next year. In a research note today, Bear Stearns (BSC) said that it expects the new product could add about $0.70 per share and $6 billion in revenue to Apple's calendar year 2007 estimates, even assuming 30% cannibalization of total existing iPod unit sales. These numbers are still not in the official estimates, and I suspect that BSC is being conservative. AAPL remains my second largest long position behind Google (GOOG), and I still see significant upside in the stock from current levels. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, performance anxiety, more optimism and buyout speculation.

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