- The Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for November rose to -15K versus estimates of -15K and -44K in October.
- The Unemployment Rate for November was 4.5% versus estimates of 4.5% and 4.4% in October.
- Average Hourly Earnings for November rose .2% versus estimates of a .3% increase and a .4% gain in October.
- Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for December fell to 90.2 versus estimates of 92.0 and a reading of 92.1 in November.
BOTTOM LINE: Employers in the US added more workers than forecast in November, showing the economy’s resilience, Bloomberg reported. These numbers bode well for Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s belief that the US economy will continue to expand. 7,000,000 jobs have now been created since August 2003. However, builders eliminated 29,000 jobs in November versus 24,000 the prior month. According the recent Fed Beige Book report, labor markets remained “tight” in October and November. As well, the Monster Employment Index hit a record high in November. I continue to believe the job market will remain healthy over the intermediate-term without generating substantial unit labor cost increases.
Confidence among US consumers declined in December from close to a 15-month high, Bloomberg said. The recent bounce in gas prices and continuing slowdown in housing are the main things holding back sentiment. The Current Conditions component of the index, which gauges consumer sentiment towards purchasing big-ticket items like cars, rose to 108.2 from 106. This is a big positive heading into the holidays. The Expectations Component fell to 78.6 from 83.2 in November. The Expected Inflation Component remained at 3%. I continue to believe consumer confidence will make new cycle highs over the intermediate-term as energy prices fall further, the job market remains healthy, stocks rise, housing stabilizes at relatively high levels, interest rates remain low and inflation decelerates further.
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