Monday, December 11, 2006

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Falling Energy Prices and Buyout Speculation

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Medical longs, Retail longs and Telecom longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is modestly positive as the advance/decline line is modestly higher, most sectors are rising and volume is above average. A recent Piper Jaffray survey of 20 Apple (AAPL) specialist retailers shows about 25% of Mac purchasers are new to the Apple platform. Piper thinks the number will continue to grow due to the "halo effect" from iPods and the Boot Camp software. I continue to believe that Apple's full-year 2007 consensus earnings estimates are way too low as the Mac gains much more market share than most expect and new products gain significant traction. I suspect the stock will have another banner year next year as the multiple expands, demand for high-quality U.S. growth stocks increases globally and earnings meaningfully exceed estimates. Apple remains my second-largest long position, after Google (GOOG), due to substantial gains since adding to my long earlier in the year. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, buyout speculation, lower energy prices, declining long rates and portfolio manager performance anxiety.

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