Wednesday, February 14, 2007

Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The Indian central bank may raise interest rates until there is evidence of a slowdown in lending and inflation, ICICI Securities Ltd. said.
- RealNetworks(RNWK) CEO Glaser said the four largest music companies are “receptive” to selling music online without copy-protection software and will begin doing so within the next year or two. Currently music sold by RealNetworks’ Rhapsody service and Apple Inc.’s iTunes store, the biggest online seller of music, comes with so-called digital rights management software.
- MedImmune’s(MEDI) FluMist was more effective than traditional shots in young children and may help increase immunization rates, according to a study.
- Congress approved increased funding for education grants, veterans’ health care, law enforcement and international AIDS relief as part of a $463.5 billion spending measure, completing work on the 2007 budget more than four months late.
- General Motors(GM) is in talks with DaimlerChrysler’s(DCX) Chrysler unit about an alliance that may result in the companies designing models together.
- Equifax Inc.(EFX), a provider of consumer-credit information, agreed to purchase Talx Corp.(TALX) for about $1.4 billion to expand in the payroll-services market.
- Merck(MRK) cut the price of its AIDS drug Stocrin by 14% to make it more affordable for people in the world’s poorest countries.
- China and Russia are fighting US efforts at the UN to prevent Iran from building nuclear bombs while working to strip North Korea of the same weapons.
- Japan’s economy grew at the fastest pace in almost three years as consumer spending rebounded and business investment jumped. The yen rose on speculation the central bank may raise interest rates.
- China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group, the nation’s second-biggest nuclear reactor builder, plans to build a wind farm and a hydro-power plant in western China.
- Woodside Petroleum Ltd., Australia’s second-largest oil and gas producer, said global trade in liquefied natural gas may rise 300% in 10 years.
- Berkshire Hathaway(BRK/A) has built an $843 million stake in US Bancorp(USB).
- Baidu.com(BIDU), China’s most-used Internet search engine, forecast first-quarter sales will grow at the slowest pace since the company listed as competition from Google Inc.(GOOG) increases.

AP:
- Thousands of US soldiers searched house-to-house for insurgents or weapons in Shiite areas of the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, in the first-phase of a long-awaited security crackdown.

Automotive News:
- Ford Motor(F) is offering US dealers a $500 incentive to lift sales of the base model of its new Edge crossover wagon, the first such discount for the model.

Chosun Ilbo:
- North Korean top negotiator Kim Kye Gwan may visit the US as early as March as six-nation talks to end the communist country’s nuclear program led to an agreement.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Investors should be taking profits into the recent rally in the E&P sector as cold weather has hit the US. Spring is around the corner and we believe that a significant inventory overhang combined with typical seasonal weakness will lead to a ~10% correction in coming weeks. Our concerns focus on an excess inventory of ~450 Bcf coming out of the winter, growing LNG and Canadian imports, growing production and active rig count, new supply from the Independence Hub, poor industrial demand and the potential for liquids stripping to dissipate.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.75% to +1.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated unch.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (AAP)/.34
- (A)/.38
- (AQNT)/.17
- (BHI)/1.19
- (B)/.29
- (BIIB)/.55
- (BOBE)/.39
- (CECO)/.40
- (CSK)/.10
- (EXPE)/.24
- (FST)/.48
- (FCL)/.23
- (HC)/.14
- (IM)/.54
- (LH)/.72
- (ONXX)/-.61
- (POOL)/-.09
- (PSYS)/.30
- (RS)/1.22
- (STMP)/.20
- (ELOS)/.46

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 314K versus 311K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2500K versus 2490K prior.
- The Import Price Index for January is estimated to fall -1.1% versus a 1.1% increase in December.
- Empire Manufacturing for February is estimated to rise to 10.6 versus 9.1 in January.

9:00 am EST
- Net long-term TIC Flows for December are estimated to fall to $60.0 billion versus $68.4 billion in November.

9:15 am EST
- Industrial Production for January is estimated to remain unch. versus a .4% gain December.
- Capacity Utilization for January is estimated to fall to 81.7% versus 81.8% in December.

12:00 pm EST
- The Philly Fed for February is estimated to fall to 4.1 versus a reading of 8.3 in January.

1:00 pm EST
- The NAHB Housing Market Index for February is estimated at 35 versus 35 in January.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and retailing shares in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

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