Monday, February 19, 2007

Tuesday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Options traders at Denmark’s Saxo Bank A/S are betting that the Bank of Japan will keep interest rates unchanged at a meeting this week and that the US dollar will rally against the yen.
- Crude oil fell .75/bbl. as speculators trimmed bets on forecasts for milder weather and rising inventories.
- The House adopted $1.3 billion in tax cuts for small businesses that will be combined with legislation increasing the minimum wage.
- Blackstone Group LP(BLK), the private equity firm that bought Equity Office Properties(EOP) in the biggest leveraged buyout ever, agreed to sell 23 Southern California buildings it acquired in the purchase to Maguire Properties for about $3 billion.
- Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the new Palestinian government being formed must recognize Israel’s right to exist for negotiations on Palestinian statehood to succeed.
- Three senators proposed legislation that would target what they say is $100 billion a year in tax revenue lost each year because of overseas tax havens, in part by forcing hedge funds to track their foreign investors.
- The smallest emerging stock markets are elbowing aside Brazil, Russia, India and China to become the world’s best performers. An index of 22 so-called frontier countries rose 12% in January, the fastest-ever start to a year. Five of them, including Vietnam, Ukraine and Croatia, are among this year’s top 10 markets.
- India said two bomb blasts on a cross-border train to Pakistan killed as many as 64 people, possibly including visitors from the neighboring nation.
- Russia, the world’s largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia, cut its forecast for crude prices this year and next, Deputy Finance Minister Tatiana Golikova told parliament today. The ministry cut its forecast for 2007 to $55/bbl. from $61/bbl. and its 2008 estimate to $53/bbl. from $56, RIA Novosti and Interfax cited Golikova as saying.
- UK property prices accelerated for a second month in February as a shortage of homes for sale mitigated the impact of higher interest rates, a survey showed.
- Iran’s first nuclear reactor won’t start as expected this year because of supply and financing delays and it may be postponed indefinitely, the Russian agency building the power plant said.
- Russia cut its forecast for economic growth this year after lowering its estimate for oil prices.
- A wrinkle treatment derived from a natural substance in skin and other connective tissues may do more than just fill the spaces of crow’s feet or smile lines, according to researchers. A study using Medicis Pharmaceutical’s(MRX) Restylane found that injecting the substance, called hyaluronic acid, stimulated production of collagen.
- Vulcan Materials(VMC), the biggest US producer of highway construction materials, will acquire Florida Rock Industries(FRK) for $4.6 billion in cash and stock to expand in the US Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.
- Farmland from Iowa to Argentina is rising faster in price than apartments in Manhattan and London for the first time in 30 years.
- Sirius Satellite Radio(SIRI) agreed to buy larger rival XM Satellite Radio Holdings(XMSR) for $4.57 billion in stock to combine the only pay radio companies and stem billions of dollars in losses.

Wall Street Journal:
- For years, the big criticism of alternative energy was cost. It was too expensive compared with energy based on traditional fuels like coal and natural gas. Now the equation is showing significant signs of change.
- Apple Inc.(AAPL) retained control of the development and marketing of the iPhone that will be sold by AT&T’s(T) wireless unit in the US, a coup in the mobile phone industry. AT&T agreed to leave its brand off the body of the phone, allow Apply to install its own software and share the monthly subscription fees, citing people familiar with the agreement.

San Francisco Chronicle:
- Technology companies including Yahoo!(YHOO) and Microsoft(MSFT) have led an influx of office workers back to San Francisco, citing commercial real-estate agents and recent lease agreements. Demand for office space by startups and big computer and microchip firms helped slash the vacancy rate for the city’s top-rated office space by half to 8.5% from three years ago.

NY Times:
- At least 31 US states are considering legislation requiring vaccination or funding for vaccination against the human papilloma virus, which causes cervical cancer.
- New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton rejected appeals from advisers, friends and political donors to renounce her 2002 vote authorizing military action in Iraq.
- Iraq substantially increased its estimates of the amount of oil and natural gas in deposits on Sunni lands after paying oil companies to evaluate old seismic data across the country. An evaluation of one series of wells running from Taji, north of Baghdad, to the southeast of the capital nearly doubled the estimate of recoverable reserves.
- Thirty to 40% of illegal DVDs sold in the US were made with camcorders smuggled into Canadian cinemas, citing the Motion Picture Assoc. of America.
- NY Governor Eliot Spitzer agreed to allow an Indian tribe to build a $600 million casino in the Catskills.

Anchorage Daily News:
- BP Exploration (Alaska) Inc., a unit of BP Plc(BP), will seek approval this year to develop Liberty, an oil field off the Alaska coast that will cost $1 billion.

Detroit News:
- JPMorgan Chase(JPM) has assigned one of its mergers-and-acquisition specialists to lead efforts to sell DaimlerChrysler AG’s Chrysler unit.

Financial Times:
- EBay Inc.(EBAY) is opposing moves by the US to make it hand over the names of customers who don’t pay taxes earned on auction sites.

Sunday Times:
- South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Co. may be interested in taking over DaimlerChrysler AG’s Chrysler unit in order to get access to the company’s dealer network.

London-based Times:
- Virgin Media’s Mobile USA unit is planning an IPO on the NYSE or Nasdaq in the third quarter of 2007 which may value the company at $2 billion.

Financial Mail:
- Vodafone Group Plc(VOD) is set to put Google’s(GOOG) search engine on the front page of its Internet-enabled mobile phones within weeks.

Daily Telegraph:
- Scottish officials approved the construction of a $975 million wind farm on the Isle of Lewis, which will be Europe’s biggest.

Daily Mirror:
- Prince Harry, third in line to the British crown, will be deployed to southern Iraq with his army regiment “within days.”

Welt am Sonntag:
- Nokia(NOK) expects mobile-phone prices to decline this year as the market grows as much as 10%.

Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung:
- DaimlerChrysler AG(DCX) and General Motors(GM) are discussing cooperating on a few projects such as sport-utility vehicles and small cars.

Scottsman:
- Watching too much television may be to blame for the development among young children of an array of potential illnesses such as cancer, autism and Alzheimer’s, citing psychologist Aric Sigman.

Shanghai Daily:
- McDonald’s Corp.(MCD) plans to increase the number of restaurants it has in China to 1,000 by 2008, from about 780 now.

Khaleej Times:
- Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will launch a single currency by the scheduled date in 2010.

Islamic Republic News Agency:
- Iranian Oil Minister Kazem Vaziri-Hamaneh said OPEC probably won’t cut output further at its meeting next month if prices continue rising…

Al-Hayat:
- Gulf states are investing $22 billion in aluminum production to meet rising demand.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (WEBX), (BF/B), (ERTS) and (TKR).

Night Trading
Asian indices are -.25% to unch. on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.08%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (AT)/.58
- (AMT)/.04
- (BYD)/.39
- (CBRL)/.69
- (CROX)/.43
- (FOSL)/.44
- (GPC)/.69
- (HVT)/.11
- (HPQ)/.63
- (HD)/.51
- (IN)/.13
- (MDT)/.58
- (PSA)/.57
- (TTC)/.35
- (WMT)/.90

Upcoming Splits
- (ACLI) 2-for-1
- (SIGI) 2-for-1
- (ZOLL) 2-for-1
- (CMCSA) 3-for-2

Economic Releases
- None of note

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are slightly lower, weighed down by financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

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