Friday, May 18, 2007

DJIA Hitting Another Record High into Final Hour on Positive Earnings, Buyout Speculation and Rising Economic Optimism

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Retail longs, Medical longs and I-Banking longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are gaining and volume is above average. Goldman Sachs (GS) is hitting a new high today, rising another 1.4%. Its market capitalization is surpassing the $100 billion mark for the first time. I don't think it is too late to buy this stock as a meaningful pullback is likely from much higher levels. I think the stock can rise another 20%-30% before year-end as the bull market continues and earnings exceed estimates, prompting multiple expansion. I remain long GS. Gasoline demand is decelerating even as weather has improved the last few weeks, which indicates high prices are having an impact. Retail stocks are substantially outperforming today after better-than-expected earnings reports from (KSS), (JWN) and (JCP). I continue to believe the group has seen their lows for the year. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, lower energy prices, buyout speculation and more economic optimism.

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