Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Stocks Mostly Higher into Final Hour as Buyouts and Falling Energy Prices offset China Bubble Worries

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs, I-Banking longs and Energy-related shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are higher and volume is below-average. The Yale School of Management Crash Confidence Index is showing the individual (herd) is the most concerned about a stock market crash since December 2002, right near the trough of one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history. This is another amazing number and helps to illustrate how deep-seeded the herd's pessimism towards U.S. stocks really is, in my opinion. Notwithstanding any weekly or monthly blips higher in various measures of investor confidence, I continue to believe overall investor sentiment regarding U.S. stocks has never been worse in history with the DJIA just off fresh record highs. This has to be very disturbing to the many U.S. secular bears. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on buyout speculation, lower energy prices and more economic optimism.

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