Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Stocks Sharply Lower into Final Hour on Lingering Housing-related Worries

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Computer longs, I-Banking longs and Software longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is very negative today as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, most sectors are falling and volume is above-average. My intraday gauge of investor angst is above average levels. Apple (AAPL) shares are under pressure today on reports of slowing demand for the iPhone. I believe any weakness in the shares will prove short term in nature and plan to add to my long on any meaningful decline from current levels. Apple remains my second-largest long position, behind Google (GOOG). I think worries over the credit market "seizing up" are overdone. The Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales rose 2.8% this week vs. a 2.7% gain the prior week. This is up from a 0.1% average gain from mid-April to mid-May. It is also up from a 1.4% gain the first week of this month, and it is the highest level since the 4.2% gain seen in the first week of April, which was the high for the last 52 weeks. Weekly retail sales are now just marginally below long-term average rates. I continue to believe retail sales will move back to above-average levels this fall as energy prices fall substantially from current levels, stocks rise further, housing fears subside, interest rates remain historically low, inflation decelerates further, wages continue to substantially outpace inflation, unemployment remains historically low and consumer confidence improves meaningfully. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on bargain-hunting, short-covering and lower energy prices.

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