Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Freddie Mac(FRE) CEO Richard Syron predicted the sub-prime mortgage crisis may deepen before housing prices improve in about 18 months. The crisis doesn’t threaten “the stability of our financial system” and won’t have “a highly major impact on the economy as a whole,” Syron said.
- A US congressional subcommittee is investigating whether Google’s(GOOG) $3.1 billion purchase of DoubleClick will stifle competition in the online ad market.
- Asian chemical makers may more than double processing of liquefied petroleum gas because it’s cheaper than naphtha, an alternative raw material for plastics, said industry consultant Purvin & Gertz Inc.
- A steam pipe explosion near Manhattan’s Grand Central Terminal during the evening rush hour sent plumes of steam and debris into the air, killing one person and injuring at least a dozen more.
- China may strengthen the yuan by as much as 3.5% in a single day to cool the economy and appease US lawmakers, said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist at Societe Generale SA.
- India will maintain a “fairly tight” monetary policy to curb inflation that may be stoked by rising crude oil prices and consumer demand, Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said.
- China’s economy expanded 11.9% from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said today, up from 11.1% in the first quarter. Inflation climbed to 4.4% in June, breaching the central bank’s annual 3% target for a fourth month.

USA Today:
- AT&T(T) is supporting rules for spectrum auctions proposed by the US Federal Communications Commission, citing Jim Cicconi, senior executive president of public policy.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Morgan Stanley:
- Reiterated Overweight on (IBM), target raised to $125. Clearly IBM(IBM) presents a positive data point on global enterprise spending trends. While IBM’s small and medium business (SMB) growth remained steady from 1Q, the large enterprise segment accelerated by 2-3 points with particular strength in Public and Communications sectors. We’d point to (EMC), (NTAP), (ISLN), (SUNW), (NCR) as vendors with the most enterprise exposure in our group.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 futures +.12%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.08%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (AMD)/-.84
- (BAC)/1.20
- (BK)/.61
- (BAX)/.68
- (BRCM)/.27
- (COF)/1.63
- (CAL)/1.85
- (CY)/.14
- (DHR)/.92
- (DJ)/.44
- (FCS)/.14
- (FDC)/.31
- (FSL)/.52
- (GPC)/.76
- (GILD)/.40
- (GOOG)/3.57
- (HOG)/1.13
- (HSY)/.35
- (HON)/.76
- (ITW)/.88
- (IMCL)/.31
- (IRF)/.58
- (IGT)/.39
- (ISRG)/.66
- (MAN)/1.20
- (MEL)/.62
- (MSFT)/.39
- (MHK)/1.57
- (MOT)/.01
- (NUE)/1.15
- (OO)/.31
- (PPG)/1.53
- (SNDK)/.15
- (STX)/.36
- (SHW)/1.44
- (SYK)/.61
- (STI)/1.44
- (AMTD)/1.25
- (UNP)/1.62
- (UNH)/.81

Upcoming Splits
- (IOSP) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 311K versus 308K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2550K versus 2554K prior.

10:00 am EST
- Leading Indicators for June are estimated to fall -.1% versus a .3% increase in May.

12:00 pm EST
- Philly Fed for July is estimated to fall to 13.5 versus a reading of 18.0 in June.

2:00 pm EST
- June 28 FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Other Potential Market Movers
- Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony to congress, the Fed’s Moskow speaking, SEMICON West and (SNCR) Analyst Event could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by mining and technology stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.