Monday, November 19, 2007

Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines

- The global burden of HIV has been overstated, with new surveillance data showing the number of people carrying the AIDS-causing virus is about 6.3 million lower than estimated last year. More accurate ways of tracking the disease indicate for the first time that the world turned the corner on the three-decade epidemic in the late 1990s.
- London Metal Exchange director Philip Crowson stated on Monday that China’s robust demand for raw materials may slow down after the 2008 Beijing Olympics, due to a series of policies on curbing investment and rising inflation pressure. Philip stressed at a mining conference in PerthChina’s vigorous investment boom might be exaggerating the country’s underlying needs, particularly as its economy becomes more market-oriented, the state-owned companies improve their efficiency, and more efforts are made on environmental protection. that
- Leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations will today agree to “abide by and implement” changes to their markets allowing the region to be a European Union-modeled economic community by 2015.
- Japan starts taking fingerprints and photographs of foreigners entering the country from today to catch terrorists that Justice Minister Kunio Hatoyama says are beating immigration controls using false passports and disguises.

- Brazil, the New Oil Superpower. State-run Petrobras’ “monstrous” new oil find has wide-ranging implications for the South American country, the oil majors, oil services providers, and beyond.

- Hard Drive Makers Resist Price War.

- Why give thanks when you can shop?

- General Motors’(GM) Cadillac CTS was named 2008 car of the year in the US by Motor Trend magazine.

Financial Times:
- The US Federal Reserve will on Tuesday publish its first set of enhanced economic forecasts alongside the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, and the result may surprise some investors. The new economic projections are likely to show that Fed policymakers expect the US economy will pull through an expected near-term rough patch and regain strength over the course of 2008, even though they see downside risks to that ­forecast.
- Arab investors, flush with liquidity, are considering investments in distressed US financial assets as they try to turn the turmoil in credit markets into a regional opportunity.

Daily Telegraph:
- Rio Tinto(RTP), defending a takeover proposal from BHP Billiton(BHP), may offer its larger rival partnerships in some projects instead of a merger.

Economic Daily News:
- AU Optronics(AUO) will supply panels that will be sued in Dell’s(DELL) new touch-screen laptops.

Jiji Press:
- Tomy Co. and other Japanese toymakers are shifting production to Vietnam on rising costs and safety concerns in China, where almost 90% of Japanese-brand toys are produced.

South China Morning Post:
- BYD Co. plans to export its own-brand electric cars to the US and western Europe by the middle of next year, citing an official at the Hong Kong-listed battery maker.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations

- Reiterated Buy on (TGT), target $66. TGT’s November sales are tracking in-line with the company’s original guidance. We believe the arrival of more favorable weather in November has helped to drive sales of seasonal and cold weather items during the month.
- Reiterated Buy on (HOLX), target $74.
- Reiterated Buy on (MSFT), target $41.
- Reiterated Buy on (JWN), target $52.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -3.0% to -.75% on average.
S&P 500 futures +.37%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.65%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (UNFI)/.32
- (BKS)/-.09
- (DHI)/-.85
- (DKS)/.05
- (TGT)/.62
- (GME)/.23
- (FRE)/.00
- (EV)/.49
- (ROST)/.35
- (SKS)/.16
- (ZLC)/-.60
- (SSI)/.05
- (BJ)/.33
- (DDS)/-.19
- (HRL)/.65
- (BGP)/-.62
- (LTD)/.00
- (ARUN)/.03
- (HIBB)/.24
- (WFMI)/.30
- (PSUN)/.14
- (GYMB)/.90
- (ODP)/.40
- (HOTT)/.15
- (MWRK)/-.59
- (PLL)/.57
- (JCG)/.36
- (FL)/.24
- (BCSI)/.24

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

- Housing Starts for October are estimated to fall to 1170K versus 1191K in September.
- Building Permits for October are estimated to fall to 1200K versus 1261K in September.

2:00 pm EST
- Oct. 31 FOMC Meeting Minutes

Other Potential Market Movers
- The weekly retail sales reports, (IART) analyst meeting, Bank of America Defense Day and Scotia Capital Telecom & Tech Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and commodity stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

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