Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
- Mohamed Al-Hamli, president of OPEC, said producers are pumping enough oil to meet global demand. Al-Hamli said world economic data is “most important” to OPEC and that OPEC’s spare capacity is 3 million bbls./day. He also said OPEC is spending $50 billion on refining projects and $150 billion on capacity expansion by 2012. OPEC sees a “real risk” of “wasting” resources on expansion as spare capacity may not be needed.
- Samsung Electronics, the world’s second-largest mobile-phone maker, forecast shipments will rise by more than 25% next year, outpacing industry growth, on demand for handsets with faster download speeds.
- Online sales rose to a record $733 million yesterday as US consumer returned to work after Thanksgiving and continued holiday shopping online. Internet retail purchases increased 21%, with shoppers favoring Amazon.com(AMZN), Wal-Mart(WMT) and Target(TGT), ComScore said today.
- Florida and Chicago borrowed a total of almost $500 million for schools in today’s largest single sales of US municipal bonds, tapping the market as benchmark tax-exempt yields rose from an eight-month low.
- Japan’s retail sales rose at the fastest pace in more than a year as consumer bought new-model cars.
- BHP Billiton(BHP) got financing for its $120 billion proposal to buy rival Rio Tinto Group(RTP) from seven banks with a loan of as much as $70 billion.
- Crude oil fell for a third day in NY on speculation that OPEC will next month agree to raise output.

Wall Street Journal:
- Hedge funds came through the first three months of the credit crunch in reasonable shape. But November is turning out to be a different proposition. Average returns look likely to be back in negative territory for the first time since August.
- Verizon(VZ) to Open Cell Network to Others’ Phones.

NY Times:
- Oil Producers See the World and Buy It Up.
- Congressional negotiators are nearing agreement on a measure to set significantly higher fuel economy standards for cars and light trucks, according to aides and lobbyists following the talks.
- Google’s(GOOG) Next Frontier: Renewable Energy.

- Abu Dhabi’s Citigroup(C) Bargain. The emirate’s investment arm grabs a chunk of the financial giant, as US woes offer tempting buys for cash-rich, Gulf state funds.

- $100 oil and the ‘S’ word. Is it growing demand and tight supply, or merely rampant speculation that has pushed crude to record highs?
- 25 most powerful business people.

- Dell(DELL) to Sell Google(GOOG) Business Search Devices.

- California’s Gold Coast. No Sign of Real Estate Slump Among the Priciest Homes.

- GM(GM) to build hybrid cars in China from 2008: report.
- Insiders snapping up shares at Fannie Mae(FNM).
- Short interest on the NASDAQ rose 1.5% in mid-November, the exchange said on Tuesday, suggesting an increase in bearish sentiment in the stock market.

Financial Times:
- A derivatives index tracking subprime mortgage securities is up from record lows this week, after loan performance data showed the pace of deterioration in the mortgage market slowed slightly in October. An analysis of the ABX indices by Goldman Sachs last week showed the index was pricing in cumulative losses of $402 billion, or 29% of the subprime mortgage market, roughly double the $211 billion it has estimated. This figure assumes 32% of the losses priced into the ABX will come from loans issued in 2007, and 39% of losses will come from loans issued in 2006, with the balance relating to prior years. Goldman said the AAA-rated slice of the index had fallen too far, and should have no losses, regain their 22% losses and trade at par.
- Investment funds from the Middle East and Asia have invested an estimated $37 billion in shares of western financial companies this year in a sign the funds are taking a more optimistic view than other investors of the growth prospects for banks, exchanges and asset managers.
- Some 48% of Americans now believe the US military effort in Iraq is going well, compared with 30% in February, according to the latest poll by the Pew Research Center.

Economic Daily News:
- High Tech Computer, the world’s largest maker of mobile phones using Microsoft’s(MSFT) Windows operating system, may post record monthly sales of $433 million this month on demand for its handsets. High Tech said sales will rise at least 10% next year as the company releases models with more features. Handset shipments will increase about 20% in 2008 from the estimated 11 million phones to be sold this year.

China Daily:
- China’s ruling Communist Party will continue to guide the government to strengthen macroeconomic controls next year in order to promote “sound and rapid” economic growth, particularly by limiting fixed asset investments.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations

- Reiterated Buy on (SPW), target $115.
- Maintained Buy on (ADBE), target $56.
- Maintained Buy on (ATVI), target $29.
- Reiterated Buy on (DELL), target $35.
- Reiterated Buy on (TECD), target $56.
- Buy (SNPS) ahead of earnings report on 12/6, target $35.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.13%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (BWS)/.66
- (CBRL)/.66
- (DLTR)/.37
- (MW)/.69
- (ARO)/.47
- (SIGM)/.53
- (JAS)/.25
- (CWTR)/-.12

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

- Durable Goods Orders for October are estimated to fall .1% versus a 1.7% decline in September.
- Durables Ex Transports for October are estimated to rise .3% versus a .3% increase in September.

10:00 am EST
- Existing Home Sales for October are estimated to fall to 5.0M versus 5.04M in September.

10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil drawdown of -1,000,000 barrels versus a -1,071,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by 500,000 barrels versus a 163,000 barrel increase the prior week. Distillate Inventories are expected to fall by -1,200,000 barrels versus a -2,407,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is expected to rise by .55% versus a .66% decline the prior week.

2:00 pm EST
- Fed’s Beige Book

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Mishkin speaking, Fed’s Fisher speaking, Fed’s Kohn speaking, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, weekly EIA energy inventory report, (ROH) analyst day, (ERF) analyst meeting, Bear Stearns Commodities & Capital Goods Conference, CSFB Tech Conference, CSFB Aviation Conference, FBR Investor Conference, JPMorgan Homebuilding Conference, CIBC Mid & Small Cap “Best Ideas” Conference, Lazard Healthcare Conference, Piper Jaffray Healthcare Conference and Merrill Lynch Health Services Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mixed as gains in technology stocks are being offset by losses in commodity shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

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