Monday, December 24, 2007

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Diminishing Credit Market Angst and Economic Pessimism

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Computer longs, Semi longs, Software longs and Medical longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The overall tone of the market is positive today as the advance/decline line is higher, almost every sector is rising and volume is light. Investor anxiety is slightly below average. Today’s overall market action is bullish. The ten-year yield is rising another 4 basis points and copper is surging another 2% on less economic pessimism. The TED spread is plunging another 37 basis points today to 152 basis points, which is down 69 basis points in 9 days. It is also down 88 basis points from its August high, which is a big positive and a sign of diminishing credit market angst. Today’s gains are spread across all market-caps and styles. The (XLF) is 1.2% higher, which always seems to help the broad market these days. True "growth" stock leaders are especially strong again today, as has been the case for most of the year. Large(+14%) and mid-cap growth(+13%) stocks are this year's best performers. The economic fear mongering that continues unabated by the many permabears is losing its effectiveness. I still see further upside in the broad market from current levels into year-end. Apple Inc.(AAPL) is relatively strong today, rising 2.4%, on speculation over new 08 product releases and strong holiday sales. The stock remains my second largest long position and I still see substantial upside from current levels. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on diminishing credit market angst, less economic pessimism, seasonal strength, bargain-hunting and short-covering. I hope everyone has a merry Christmas or happy holiday! Thanks for reading.

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