Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Consumer Expectations Lower Than During 1970s

- Consumer Confidence for June fell to 50.4 versus estimates of 56.0 and a reading of 58.1 in May.

- The House Price Index for April fell .8% versus estimates of a .4% decline and a .6% decline in March.

BOTTOM LINE: Confidence among Americans dropped to the lowest level in 16 years, Bloomberg reported. The Present Conditions component fell to 64.5 from 74.2 the prior month. The Expectations component for the next six months fell to 41.0, the lowest since record-keeping began in 1967, versus 47.3 the prior month. Confidence in the north eastern regions remains mind-bogglingly depressed. Confidence in the Northeast Central region, where most hedge funds and major media outlets are headquartered, fell to 27.50 from 34.7 the prior month. It is stunning that the current confidence readings are lower now than at anytime during the 70s or even the early 90s, considering the macro backdrop now and during those periods. The stage for a strong secular bull move higher in US stocks continues to be set as the “US negativity bubble” grows ever larger.

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